Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to hold its Q3 2023 earnings call this Wednesday, October 18, 2023. Analysts are looking to secure updates regarding the company’s margins, as well as ongoing projects such as the Cybertruck and Gigafactory Mexico.
Tesla delivered a total of 435,059 vehicles and produced 430,488 cars in Q3 2023. The numbers represented a decline from Q2, which was due in no small part to factory shutdowns and the launch of the upgraded Model 3 in Giga Shanghai. Based on these results, Tesla has now delivered 1,324,074 vehicles year-to-date, which already exceeds the 1,313,851 cars that were delivered in 2022.
With these in mind, the following are the top updates that TSLA analysts are looking for in the third-quarter earnings call.
Deliveries Target
Tesla is expected to post an update on its 2023 delivery target, which was set at 1.8 million vehicles. To meet that goal, the company will need to deliver a record 476,000 vehicles in Q4. Tesla appears determined to achieve this goal, as evidenced by the price cuts for the Model S and Model X and the updates to the Model 3 and Model Y in China.
The vehicle that would likely hold the key to Tesla’s Q4 2023 results is the upgraded Model 3, which is expected to start deliveries this quarter. With the new Model 3 in the picture, Tesla’s deliveries this quarter would likely see a notable boost.
Tesla Margins
Nine analysts polled by Visible Alpha noted that Tesla’s price war likely pushed the company’s margins to 18.1%, excluding regulatory credits. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, for his part, noted that Tesla’s margins could dip below 15% in Q4 2023, as noted in a Reuters report.
“We are factoring in help from the recent decline in lithium prices. However, that likely falls short of offsetting the price cuts,” Langan noted.
Cybertruck Launch and Prices
With sightings of Cybertruck release candidates rising across the United States, expectations are high that the all-electric pickup truck’s first delivery event is just around the corner. Analysts are thus looking forward to any updates on the vehicle, such as its launch date and price.
Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, expects the production Cybertruck to be more expensive than its initially-announced prices. “It will be around $49,900 for the single motor, probably $59,900 for the dual motor, and probably $79,900 for the tri-motor, a little bit higher than Model Y,” Black estimated.
Full-Self Driving (FSD) Progress
Tesla has missed Elon Musk’s FSD predictions so much that the CEO has practically become the executive who cried autonomous driving. This does not mean to say that FSD has stagnated, however. On the contrary, FSD’s recent updates have brought the driver-assist system closer to self-driving than ever before.
Tesla slashed the price of FSD in August. The effects of this price cut, as well as the progress of the program as a whole, are expected to be discussed by Tesla executives in the Q3 earnings call.
Gigafactory Mexico Updates
Tesla announced in March that it would build a new factory in the northern Mexican state of Nuevo Leon. Details about the factory, such as its cost and construction timeline, are yet to be announced. The project appears to be moving quite slowly compared to facilities such as Giga Shanghai and Giga Texas, though a senior Mexican government official noted last week that the facility’s final permits could be ready in weeks.
Analysts will likely be looking for updates on Giga Mexico in Tesla’s Q3 earnings call, especially considering that it is the facility that would be building the company’s next-generation vehicle and dedicated Robotaxi.
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There are a lot of Tesla bulls out there who have astronomical expectations for the company, especially as its arm of reach has gone well past automotive and energy and entered artificial intelligence and robotics.
However, some of the most bullish Tesla investors believe the company could become worth $100 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk does not believe that number is completely out of the question, even if it sounds almost ridiculous.
To put that number into perspective, the top ten most valuable companies in the world — NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and Tesla — are worth roughly $26 trillion.
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Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes the number is reasonable considering Tesla’s long-reaching industry ambitions:
“…in the world of AI, what do you have to have to win? You have to have proprietary data, and think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data. Tesla, the language of the road; Neuralink, multiomics data; nobody else has that data. X, nobody else has that data either. I could see $100 trillion. I think it’s going to happen because of convergence. I think Tesla is the leading candidate [for $100 trillion] for the reason I just said.”
Musk said late last year that all of his companies seem to be “heading toward convergence,” and it’s started to come to fruition. Tesla invested in xAI, as revealed in its Q4 Earnings Shareholder Deck, and SpaceX recently acquired xAI, marking the first step in the potential for a massive umbrella of companies under Musk’s watch.
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Now that it is happening, it seems Musk is even more enthusiastic about a massive valuation that would swell to nearly four-times the value of the top ten most valuable companies in the world currently, as he said on X, the idea of a $100 trillion valuation is “not impossible.”
It’s not impossible
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2026
Tesla is not just a car company. With its many projects, including the launch of Robotaxi, the progress of the Optimus robot, and its AI ambitions, it has the potential to continue gaining value at an accelerating rate.
Musk’s comments show his confidence in Tesla’s numerous projects, especially as some begin to mature and some head toward their initial stages.
Elon Musk
Tesla director pay lawsuit sees lawyer fees slashed by $100 million
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
The Delaware Supreme Court has cut more than $100 million from a legal fee award tied to a shareholder lawsuit challenging compensation paid to Tesla directors between 2017 and 2020.
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
Delaware Supreme Court trims legal fees
As noted in a Bloomberg Law report, the case targeted pay granted to Tesla directors, including CEO Elon Musk, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Kimbal Musk, and Rupert Murdoch. The Delaware Chancery Court had awarded $176 million to the plaintiffs. Tesla’s board must also return stock options and forego years worth of pay.
As per Chief Justice Collins J. Seitz Jr. in an opinion for the Delaware Supreme Court’s full five-member panel, however, the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court to award $176 million to a pension fund’s law firm “erred by including in its financial benefit analysis the intrinsic value” of options being returned by Tesla’s board.
The justices then reduced the fee award from $176 million to $70.9 million. “As we measure it, $71 million reflects a reasonable fee for counsel’s efforts and does not result in a windfall,” Chief Justice Seitz wrote.
Other settlement terms still intact
The Supreme Court upheld the settlement itself, which requires Tesla’s board to return stock and options valued at up to $735 million and to forgo three years of additional compensation worth about $184 million.
Tesla argued during oral arguments that a fee award closer to $70 million would be appropriate. Interestingly enough, back in October, Justice Karen L. Valihura noted that the $176 award was $60 million more than the Delaware judiciary’s budget from the previous year. This was quite interesting as the case was “settled midstream.”
The lawsuit was brought by a pension fund on behalf of Tesla shareholders and focused exclusively on director pay during the 2017–2020 period. The case is separate from other high-profile compensation disputes involving Elon Musk.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call highlighted improving margins, record energy performance, expanding autonomy efforts, and a sharp acceleration in AI and robotics investments.
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Key takeaways
Tesla reported sequential improvement in automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, rising from 15.4% to 17.9%, supported by favorable regional mix effects despite a 16% decline in deliveries. Total gross margin exceeded 20.1%, the highest level in more than two years, even with lower fixed-cost absorption and tariff impacts.
The energy business delivered standout results, with revenue reaching nearly $12.8 billion, up 26.6% year over year. Energy gross profit hit a new quarterly record, driven by strong global demand and high deployments of MegaPack and Powerwall across all regions, as noted in a report from The Motley Fool.
Tesla also stated that paid Full Self-Driving customers have climbed to nearly 1.1 million worldwide, with about 70% having purchased FSD outright. The company has now fully transitioned FSD to a subscription-based sales model, which should create a short-term margin headwind for automotive results.
Free cash flow totaled $1.4 billion for the quarter. Operating expenses rose by $500 million sequentially as well.
Production shifts, robotics, and AI investment
Musk further confirmed that Model S and Model X production is expected to wind down next quarter, and plans are underway to convert Fremont’s S/X line into an Optimus robot factory with a capacity of one million units.
Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles, operating across the Bay Area and Austin, with Musk noting a rapid monthly expansion pace. He also reiterated that CyberCab production is expected to begin in April, following a slow initial S-curve ramp before scaling beyond other vehicle programs.
Looking ahead, Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion next year, thanks to the company’s operations across its six factories, the expansion of its fleet expansion, and the ramp of its AI compute. Additional investments in AI chips, compute infrastructure, and future in-house semiconductor manufacturing were discussed but are not included in the company’s current CapEx guidance.
More importantly, Tesla ended the year with a larger backlog than in recent years. This is supported by record deliveries in smaller international markets and stronger demand across APAC and EMEA. Energy backlog remains strong globally as well, though Tesla cautioned that margin pressure could emerge from competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs.
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