Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) fourth-quarter earnings call comes on the heels of yet another blockbuster quarter that saw the electric car maker posting $7.38 billion in revenue and an earnings per share of $2.14, beating the Street’s estimates.
As revealed in the company’s Q4 and Full Year 2019 Update Letter, Tesla is GAAP profitable once more and is likely on track towards even more stable financial ground. The company generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow for the year, propelled in part by the sustained, stable demand for the Tesla Model 3.
For today’s earnings call, Tesla executives are expected to address questions surrounding the company’s plans for the coming year, as well as the electric car maker’s upcoming projects such as Giga Berlin and the ongoing expansion of Giga Shanghai.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q4 2019 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.
16:29 PT – Joseph Osha from JMP Securities inquired about Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell technologies. Musk referred once more to the company’s upcoming Battery Day, where the company will discuss its plans with the company’s technologies, including its supercapacitors and dry electrode innovations, which Musk said will play an important part in Tesla’s future plans.
16:26 PT – While answering an inquiry from Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, Musk remarked that Tesla has gone way deep in battery technology. “Wow, we really know a lot about batteries,” he said.
16:25 PT – Dan Levy of Credit Suisse reiterates the idea that Tesla should raise capital now to acquire more companies. Elon Musk jokingly asked the analyst which company should Tesla acquire now. Levy seemed flustered.
To be fair, Musk has a point here, and Kirkhorn discussed this point too. There’s not a lot of sense in raising money right now since Tesla is already spending its funds as much as it can.
16:20 PT – Elon Musk and Kirkhorn noted that at this point, Tesla’s priority is all about lowering its costs and increasing its margins. This will apply to the Model 3 and Model Y ramp, with the latter likely enjoying a lot of demand. The Tesla executives also mentioned that Tesla is now testing the waters when it comes to products that are low cost and high margin, which are represented by paid software upgrades such as the Model 3’s Acceleration Boost Upgrade.
16:15 PT – Gene Munster of Loup Ventures takes the floor and asks a question about the Cybertruck, particularly its expected demand and costs for production. Elon Musk declined to release specific figures, though he noted that demand is healthy for the all-electric truck. He also stated that the focus with the Cybertruck is all about battery production. This makes sense, especially since the Cybertruck, as well as vehicles like the Semi, require a lot of batteries. This is a challenging endeavor, and it will be discussed in Tesla’s upcoming Battery Day.
Elon did state that Battery Day could probably happen after this quarter.
16:05 PT – Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley issues his inquiry, asks if Teslas will be compatible with Starlink. Musk stated that this is something that can happen in the future, explaining that Starlink is a high-bandwith system. It’s a lot of bandwith for a car, but it can be done, though the antenna to receive Starlink signals are about the size of a pizza box. Musk then added that he doesn’t really think about it very much.
16:00 PT – Addressing retail investors’ questions, Kirkhorn noted that the vehicles produced in Giga Shanghai will be just as, if not more profitable than vehicles produced in the United States. Musk added that it’s mostly a matter of costs. There’s just far more optimizations that can be done if a factory could produce vehicles for that specific region.
When asked if it is wise to raise money now, Musk stated that Tesla at this point is actually spending what it can right now. “We’re spending money efficiently, and we’re not artificially limiting our progress. In line with that, it does not make sense to raise money at this level,” Musk said. Kirkhorn believes this strategy, explaining that Tesla has gotten smarter about how the company is when it comes to spending money.
But what’s the most encouraging part here is that both Musk and Kirkhorn promised that there will be no slowdown when it comes to Tesla’s growth.
15:55 PT – Tesla starts taking questions from retail investors. First up, solar installations. Musk stated that Tesla is working with firms to take on the roofing market for the Solarglass Roof. In the future, the CEO stated that homeowners would simply have the choice of having a roof that generates power, or a roof that’s simply a roof.
Another question from retail shareholders involved the Tesla Network, and if it can be deployed even before FSD is fully approved. Elon Musk stated that such an idea makes sense. Kirkhorn added that Tesla intends to allow customers to have the choice to enter their vehicle to a ride-sharing network.
When it comes to Tesla Insurance and its existing coverage, Kirkhorn stated that the priority right now is to expand the service. “There’s a significant amount of innovation in this space,” the CTO said. Musk also stated that there will be a discount in Tesla Insurance if owners use Autopilot. Higher use of Autopilot would mean lower insurance costs.
Musk also noted that Tesla’s feature complete FSD will likely happen within the next few months. He added that he was very optimistic about its target timeframe, which was initially set for the end of 2019.
15:45 PT – Kirkhorn sets expectations for Q1, describing that the company’s profitability may be impacted due to unexpected headwinds in China such as the outbreak of the Coronavirus. Ongoing projects such as Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai would also play a part.
15:43 PT – CTO Zach Kirkhorn stated that 2019 was a key year for Tesla. The company transitioned from meeting a reservation backlog to generating more demand for the Model 3. Capacity-wise, Tesla learned a lot in the Model 3 ramp in Fremont and Giga Nevada. These were aggregated and applied to facilities such as Giga Shanghai.
Kirkhorn also mentioned something notable — Tesla is starting to earn from its software services. This is huge, as the company could generate quite a lot of profit from its software-based services. The Acceleration Boost alone is notable.
The CTO added that the Model Y’s margins will likely be better than the Model 3. This bodes very well for the electric car maker. The MIC Model 3 is also seeing healthy demand in China.
15:38 PT – Elon further notes the company’s rationale with the Cybertruck, and how Tesla opted to stay out of the box with the vehicle’s design. The CEO added that the brutalist vehicle actually has quite a lot of demand.
“The demand has been incredible. I think we can make for as many as we can sell for many years. It’s going to be pretty nuts,” he said, adding that the product is better than what many people realize. This totally makes me want a Cybertruck even more.
“(We’re) super fired up where Tesla will be in the next ten years,” Musk said.
15:33 PT – Martin Viecha opens the call and introduces the participants of the call. Elon Musk takes over and mentions Tesla’s strong demand. He focuses on Tesla having the highest demand EVs in the world with zero advertising spend. Musk also noted that Fremont is already at a production pace comparable to NUMMI’s peak before. And this is before the Model Y.
Elon specifically mentions Giga Shanghai and congratulates the China team. “I think it’s going to be an incredible asset for the company. There’s a lot of good progress there,” he said.
Musk also revealed that Model Y initial production has begun. The crossover is efficient like a beast — 315 miles per charge. This is more than what the company initially stated during its unveiling last year.
15:30 PT – And it’s time for the earnings call to begin. But so far, it seems like the call will be starting a bit later than expected. Elon Time V2? Let’s see.
15:20 PT – Hello and good day, everyone, and welcome to yet another Live Blog coverage of Tesla’s earnings report. With the electric car maker posting yet another profitable quarter. I’m no prophet, but there’s a good chance that 2020 will be far kinder to TSLA shareholders than in 2019.
Other Tesla Q4 and Full Year 2019 Highlights
Elon Musk
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.
Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.
Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.
Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.
The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”
Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”
The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.
Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.
Elon Musk
SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock
Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”
The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.
A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.
Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.
How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”
The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.
Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.
Investor's Corner
Tesla has a Cybercab problem nobody saw coming
Tesla’s Cybercab line now builds robotaxis faster than Tesla can deploy them, Lars Moravy says.
Tesla’s Cybercab line in Texas can now build the two seat robotaxi faster than the company can put it into service, according to Lars Moravy, Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering. “We don’t run every day because the line can run so fast. It’s currently outpacing our deployments,” Moravy said in a new Cybercab deep dive from Munro Live. “So, it’s a bit of a race right now. Who’s going to go faster? Right now the manufacturing line’s ahead.”
Tesla’s official Robotaxi account shared a Cybercab analysis video on X on Monday, calling it a “Cybercab engineering deep dive.” Moravy’s comments go further than what he told analysts on the Q3 earnings call last week, when he said the Cybercab line’s listed capacity of more than 125,000 units a year undersells what it can actually run.
The tour shows where that speed comes from. Tesla’s unboxed process splits the Cybercab into front, rear, side and center modules that are built and tested on their own before they meet on a short final line. That final line has just 25 fully automated stations, which Tesla’s team estimated is a fifth to a tenth of what a Model Y needs. The full line is about 78% automated, the framing line is already at 100%, and the layout uses roughly 50% less floor space per vehicle. The stated goal is “100% automation in 10 second cycle time,” or one finished Cybercab every 10 seconds.
Tesla also deleted the paint shop. Only the side modules are coated, and the exterior panels get their color inside the molding machine. Engineers said the car is designed to run at least 500,000 miles, which matters for a vehicle that will spend most of its day carrying riders.
The battery got the same treatment. The Cybercab uses an 88S6P pack of 4680 cells in a steel enclosure, a first for Tesla, with each module potted separately so a single failed module can be swapped instead of the whole pack. Wireless battery management boards replace a wiring harness, and new contactors are fast enough to drop the pyro fuse entirely. Tesla’s battery director graded the pack an A minus, compared with a D for the Model Y structural pack and a B minus for Cybertruck. Up front, the drive unit runs an 11:1 gear ratio versus roughly 9:1 on most Teslas, since the Cybercab does not need a high top speed.
Cybercab engineering deep dive — Robotaxi (@robotaxi) October 26, 2026
The deployment side is now the bottleneck Moravy described. Tesla had more than 50 Cybercabs working the Formula 1 weekend in Austin, and Texas records show 463 Cybercabs registered. Tesla said on its earnings call that Cybercab service will launch in Dallas next month, and Moravy said the company is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026. Every unit built so far has gone into Tesla’s own fleet since the line moved into volume production in April.
Munro Live also asked when it could get a Cybercab to tear down. Tesla’s answer: “Not yet.”
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