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Tesla Semi production rumors swirl as frequent sightings up the ante on expectations

YouTube | Cory Draper

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Rumors surrounding the Tesla Semi are plentiful in this day and age, especially as sightings of the company’s commercial vehicle are becoming more frequent. Expectations for the new Semi are high already, and Tesla aims to deliver the truck in a timely fashion after several delays.

The new Semi has been spotted numerous times over the past week, hinting toward ongoing testing before Tesla starts volume production of the massive, all-electric commercial vehicle. Less than two weeks after Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, where CEO Elon Musk and others detailed the ongoing offensive to develop the vehicle, the Semi is being spotted by people on public roads. Although Musk stated battery constraint is the hold-up in the Semi’s production, it isn’t stopping the company from testing several new truck builds.

Speculation regarding when Tesla will finally begin volume production is growing, and more rumors surrounding the initial deliveries to pre-orderers appear on what seems like a daily basis. However, the big bottleneck is batteries, and Tesla plans to combat this issue with wide-scale cell production and purchasing. The real question is, how many cells will be “enough?”

Elon Musk’s Earnings Call Comments

Musk, who stated last year that it was time for Tesla to enter volume production of the Semi, had a different tune during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call on January 27th. Battery cell constraint is a major bottleneck in starting the Semi production, as fulfilling the number of orders it has would likely inhibit Tesla from being able to produce its mass-market passenger vehicles, like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla has recently started producing its own battery cells at a plant that sits adjacent to its main production facility in Fremont, California. Known as the “Kato Road Facility,” Tesla is building its new 4680 cells there, a battery that Tesla claims will cut the cost of its vehicles massively, putting it on a crash course to reach price parity with gas-powered vehicles. The Semi will require significantly more cells than any other Tesla vehicle to date, a problem that the company is aiming to solve by producing its own cells and buying additional ones from third-party suppliers like Panasonic.

Tesla’s 4680 Kato Rd. facility has a top 10 capacity, and it’s not even close to finished

During the Earnings Call, Musk said:

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“Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard. So a big part of the reason — the main reason we have not accelerated new products is — like, for example, Tesla Semi is that we simply don’t happen our cells group. We — this — if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells built for it right now. We will have cells group in ourselves for Semi when we are producing the 4680 volume. But for example, Semi would use typically five times the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for five times what a car would sell for. So it kind of doesn’t make — it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint. The same would go for that.”

Effectively, Musk explained that it makes more fiscal sense to focus on the mass-market consumer products for right now. When the Kato Rd. Facility begins a massive production of the 4680 cells, Tesla can begin the Semi production efforts, but that doesn’t mean prototypes aren’t on the road now.

New Sightings

Following a sighting by The Kilowatts last week, two new sightings of the Semi have surfaced of the all-white Tesla commercial vehicle.

New Tesla Semi with updated windows, door handles, and tail lights spotted in Sacramento

One video from Cory Draper on YouTube shows a four-and-a-half-minute-long walk around of the Semi, getting a close-up look at the vehicle. One of the most striking features is the size of the power cell, as Draper estimates it is between four and five feet in length. A massive truck requires a massive power source, and the Semi’s sizeable battery storage compartment will drive the truck’s 300 or 500-mile range. Another video from Ivaylo Tzintzarsky shows the power cell from the opposite side.

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There are also numerous sensors that can be seen on the Semi, especially in Draper’s video. The top of the windshield is outfitted with at least five sensors that will help with the autonomous driving functionality of the Tesla Semi. Autonomy could help with the evolution of the trucking industry, as many drivers are currently restricted to 11 hours of travel per day, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

Fuel savings alone could pay for a Tesla Semi, as the company estimates it will save at least $200,000. Combined with superior aerodynamic performance and, a quad-motor powertrain, and a low center of gravity to prevent rollovers, the Tesla Semi has the potential to revolutionize the trucking industry forever. The question is: When will it begin production, and how long until Tesla can produce the 4680 cells in mass quantities to solve the constraint issue?

Watch the two newest sightings of the Semi below. Let us know what you think in the comments!

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Tesla’s next-gen Optimus prototype with Grok revealed

The video shows a new Optimus prototype answering questions and taking some very robotic steps, evidently revealing that the next-generation version is in its early stages of development.

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Tesla’s next-generation Optimus robot with AI assistant Grok has been revealed in a new video shared on X.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff last night, and it appears the frontman gave Benioff an exclusive look at some upcoming technology.

Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

The video shows a new Optimus prototype answering questions and taking some very robotic steps, evidently revealing that the next-generation version is in its early stages of development. It features Grok for some additional utility, as it answered questions Benioff asked in the short video.

Here’s what was uploaded to X:

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It appears that there are several big changes to this next-generation version of Optimus, some of which have been discussed by Musk and Tesla in the past.

The first is purely cosmetic, but the gold color that Optimus is wearing in this is a new and fresh look that we have not seen before.

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Perhaps the most interesting change that is evident here is the hands, which are much more detailed than past versions of Optimus:

However, we’re not too sure that these are what will be released with the next-gen Optimus, because they don’t appear to be functional, and they are more reminiscent of mannequin hands than anything.

The hands on Optimus have been a significant part of the program, as they are among the most crucial pieces of equipment on a robot. It needs to be able to perform both delicate and more imposing tasks. Tesla has aimed for Optimus to be able to thread needles or play the piano.

It was one of the most discussed improvements the company mentioned in past comments regarding how it planned to improve from Gen 2 to this next version.

Musk mentioned regarding Optimus:

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“Next-generation Optimus hand, which we have in prototype form, has actuators that have moved to the forearm, just like humans, and they operate the fingers through cables, just like human hands.”

Within Optimus lies a significant opportunity for Tesla to gain considerable strength in terms of market share and valuation.

If Tesla can efficiently develop and deploy the humanoid robot over the next several years, the company stands to gain, as companies will utilize it for tasks that require tedious labor.

Musk recently said Optimus will be a major contributor to Tesla’s valuation moving forward. He believes it will make up roughly 80 percent of the company’s value.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk to provide more details for Master Plan Part IV

Musk stated that he would be adding specifics to the plan in a later update.

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Credit: xAI/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk will be adding more specifics to the recently-released Master Plan Part IV. Musk shared the update on social media platform X amidst conversations about the general nature of the Master Plan Part IV. 

In a conversation on X, Musk responded to a post from Tesla retail shareholder and bull Dave Lee, who observed that the currently released Master Plan Part IV could really just be the introduction to the real plan due to its absence of specifics.

Elon Musk responded, stating that he would be adding specifics to the plan in a later update. “Fair enough. Will add more specifics,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla has been following Elon Musk’s Master Plans for decades. The first Master Plan, released in 2006, outlined the company’s path from the original Tesla Roadster to the Model 3, as well as the first steps for Tesla Energy. Master Plan Part Deux, released in 2016, covered the ramp of Tesla Energy, the expansion of Tesla’s vehicle lineup, and the rollout of a Robotaxi service.

Master Plan Part 3 was more ambitious as it was generally an in-depth proposal for achieving a global sustainable entry economy by transitioning to electricity-powered vehicles, homes, and industry, which will, in turn, be powered by renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Master Plan Part 3 also included a five-step plan to accomplish this, allowing the world to transition to a fully electrified future. 

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Master Plan Part IV, which was released a few days ago, focused on automation and artificial intelligence to achieve sustainable abundance. But while the first two Master Plans were very clear and specific and Master Plan Part 3 was very in-depth, Master Plan Part IV was quite general and vague in comparison. It was easy to tell that Optimus would play a big role in the pursuit of sustainable abundance, but apart from that, there were no specifics as to how Tesla intended to achieve its goals.

Fortunately, these specifics would be discussed by Musk in a later update to the plan.

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Tesla just had its best wholesale month this year in China

Tesla China’s wholesale figures include both vehicles that are sold domestically and exported abroad.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla China just had its best wholesale month this 2025 so far. In August, the electric vehicle maker sold 83,192 vehicles wholesale, a 22.55% increase compared to July 2025’s 67,886 units.

Tesla China’s wholesale figures are still down year-over-year, but the company’s momentum seems notable, especially with the arrival of the Model Y L.

August 2025 figures

As noted in a CNEV Post report, August 2025’s 83,192 wholesale figures are 4.04% less than the 86,697 units that were sold in the same period last year. It is, however, a 22.55% improvement from the previous month. From January to August, Tesla China sold 515,552 units wholesale, a 12.24% year-over-year decrease. 

It should be noted that Tesla China’s wholesale figures include both vehicles that are sold domestically and exported abroad. With this in mind, August’s results bode well for Tesla China, as it suggests that Gigafactory Shanghai is now hitting its pace with both its domestic deliveries and its exports. Giga Shanghai serves as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub.

Model Y L factor

Tesla had a challenging first quarter this year, thanks in part to the changeover to the Model Y across the Fremont factory, Giga Texas, Giga Shanghai, and Giga Berlin-Brandenburg. This changeover resulted in low sales in the first quarter. Political controversies surrounding Elon Musk and violence against Tesla stores and vehicles in the first and second quarters in the United States and Europe did not help much either.

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This Q3, however, Tesla seems to be hitting its stride, especially in China. The launch of the new Model Y L has allowed Tesla to compete in the six-seat, large SUV segment, a market that was previously closed to the standard Model Y. Reports have suggested that Tesla China has been seeing a lot of demand for the Model Y L, which should help the company achieve higher sales this quarter and the remaining months of the year.

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