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Early Model S Drive Units to Fail by 60k mi, Data Suggests

A survey by Plug In America finds a high drive unit failure rate for 2012 and 2013 Model S cars. It finds that two thirds are likely to fail before 60,000 miles

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Weibull analysis of Tesla drive units

Plug In America has completed a survey of owners of 2012 and 2013 Model S cars. A Weibull analysis of the data finds that two thirds of the drive units in those early cars are expected to fail by the time they accumulate 60,000 miles of driving according to Green Car Reports.

The survey collected data from 327 owners and asked each if their drive unit had been replaced and at what mileage. Green Car Reports reporter Matthew Klippenstein found some transcription errors in Plug In America’s raw data. He corrected them and then redid the reliability analysis using Reliasof. The results are slightly more favorable to Tesla and are plotted on the graph below.

Weibull analysis of Tesla drive units

Only 43 owners of 2014 and 2105 cars responded to the Plug In America survey and the amount of miles on those cars was well below the threshold for drive unit replacements, so no analysis of that information was performed.

Elon Musk said recently that the company has added automatic grease injection to counteract premature wear issues in the newer drive units, but its impact on reliability won’t be known until later.

Green Car Reports contacted Tesla, requesting answers to these specific questions:

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  • How many motors has Tesla repaired or replaced in 2012 and 2013 Model S cars to date?
  • What percentage of total cars does that represent?
  • What does the company’s own reliability data indicate about the percentage of cars that will require motor replacements over the life of the vehicles?
  • Musk said in November that reliability had doubled; how confident is Tesla that it has now fully resolved the reliability issues with earlier motors?
  • What is the company’s projection for failure rate in the motor(s) of current production cars?
  • What would Tesla Motors say to owners (and future used-car buyers) of the early cars regarding the reliability of the motors?

Tesla declined to answer the questions, preferring to rely on a general answer to cover them all. “Close communication with our customers enables Tesla to receive input, proactively address issues, and quickly fix problems. Over-the-air software updates allow Tesla to diagnose and fix most bugs without the need to come in for service. In instances when hardware needs to be fixed, we strive to make it painless.”

The company is reacting positively to reliability issues as they occur. Indeed, Tesla owners report they are very satisfied with their factory service experience. The 8 year Infinite Mile warranty on drive units and batteries means that few owners have suffered out of pocket expense to repair a malfunctioning drive unit.

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Elon Musk

Tesla owners doxxed by controversial anti-DOGE website in clear intimidation tactic

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Credit: CBS Colorado

Tesla owners are being doxxed by a controversial anti-DOGE website in what it called an act to “empower creative expressions of protest.”

Dogequest, a website that has been created with a clearly outlined use for intimidation against Tesla owners, posted the names, addresses, phone numbers, and other contact information of those who own vehicles made by the electric vehicle manufacturer.

It was spotted by 404 Media.

The site also claims to have the information of employees at the Department of Government Efficiency, as well as the addresses of Tesla dealerships and the locations of Tesla Superchargers. The latter two are public information.

However, the website is hoping to get Tesla owners to sell their vehicles in this evident intimidation tactic. However, the information on the website, while it was seen, was not verified to prove that it contained the information of real-world Tesla owners. The site was not accessible by Teslarati at the time of publication.

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The creation of a site like Dogequest is just another level that anti-Elon Musk activists are taking to attempt to destroy a company like Tesla as its CEO works with the Trump Administration to eliminate excessive government spending through the work of DOGE.

It is also the latest attack on Tesla owners, who have seen their vehicles vandalized, damaged, and even destroyed by those who disagree with the actions of Musk.

Tesla as a company has also seen several acts of retaliation against it, as everything from the arson of its showrooms and vehicles to it being kicked from the popular Vancouver Auto Show have come as a result of the recent backlash against the company.

Moving forward, there are still questions surrounding how these attacks will be combatted. The Trump Administration has indicated that acts of vandalism against Tesla would be considered a federal crime, but the tricky part of locating the culprits has proven to be extremely difficult. Only a handful have been found and held accountable.

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Tesla gets an upgrade on ‘upcoming material catalysts’

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tesla model y in white
(Source: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received an upgraded rating on its shares from Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who recently took a trip to Austin to visit the company’s data centers and production lines ahead of several high-profile product launches set for this year.

It was a bold move, especially considering Tesla shares are under immense pressure currently, fending off negative news regarding the company’s sentiment and potentially lower-than-expected delivery figures due to the launch of a new version of its most popular vehicle, the Model Y.

However, the bulls on Wall Street are still considering Tesla to be a safe play, especially considering its robust presence in various industries, including automotive, energy, and AI/Robotics.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note that, during a recent visit to Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the production line at Gigafactory Texas, it was clear there is a lot of potential and runway for Tesla in 2025:

“On 3/18, we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin, followed by CA later in 2025). With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YRD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts. Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged. Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Catalysts.”

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Sheppard went on to mention the catalysts, which he believes are the Robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, along with the continued rollout of Full Self-Driving in China, the eventual rollout of FSD in Europe, and the introduction of the affordable models in the first half of this year, and those were just on the automotive side.

There are several others, including Optimus, growth in the energy division, and in the longer term, the Semi.

In terms of potential weaknesses, Sheppard expects the likely removal of the EV tax credit and some of its growth to be offset by tariffs as the two big things that stand in the way of even more growth for the company.

Tesla is up over 5 percent on Wednesday, trading at $236.86.

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Tesla kicked from popular auto show as event succumbs to protest pressure

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Credit: Sawyer Merritt/X

Tesla has been kicked from a popular automotive show as the organizers of the massive event have succumbed to the pressure of protestors and others who oppose the electric vehicle maker.

The Vancouver Auto Show in Canada announced that it would not allow Tesla to establish a presence at the event this year, citing concerns about potential disruption from protestors and others who have been vocal about their distaste for the company and its CEO, Elon Musk.

Eric Nicholl, executive director of the Vancouver Auto International Show, said (via The Hill):

“The Vancouver Auto Show’s primary concern is the safety of attendees, exhibitors, and staff. This decision will ensure all attendees can be solely focused on enjoying the many positive elements of the event.”

Tesla was reportedly given several opportunities to voluntarily withdraw from the Vancouver Auto Show. The company evidently declined these invitations. Reps of the event itself then took it into their own hands, stating that the company would not be welcome at the event any longer.

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Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump Administration seems to be the main culprit for so much pushback from the opposition.

Protest groups and organizers have put together various acts of opposition against Tesla, some more reasonable than others, in an effort to show their distaste for the company and Musk. However, many of these acts have turned violent, resulting in the vandalism or even the total destruction of vehicles. It’s one thing to use your right to protest, and it’s another to destroy people’s personal vehicles or property that belongs to the automaker.

The decision by the Vancouver Auto Show sets a dangerous precedent that the violence and destruction tactics used by groups that oppose Tesla will work. Ultimately, people’s safety is most important, but there is the impression that shows will not take the proper precautions to ensure that all companies are able to show off their products and tech at the event.

This could have been resolved with other strategies, and axing Tesla from the show altogether could result in some fans boycotting the show altogether.

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