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European EV market expected to slow as buyers await affordable models

(Credit:@lourencovc/Instagram)

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Several parties are echoing concerns about the European electric vehicle (EV) market as some buyers await new, more affordable models that are just a few years out — and as significant economic uncertainty remains.

Sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) jumped 47 percent in Europe throughout the first nine months of this year, according to Reuters. However, automakers including Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Tesla have aired concerns about high interest rates putting off consumers and slowing EV growth.

According to AutoTrader, EVs in Britain are still roughly 33 percent more costly than their fossil fuel alternatives. Last week, Tesla announced plans to produce its next model, a €25,000/$25,000 EV, at its Gigafactory outside of Berlin, Germany. With the long-anticipated “affordable EV” on its way, some customers may be inclined to wait to buy, along with holding out for what they expect to be better products.

Volkswagen’s EV orders, as one example, were just half of what they were in 2022 during the same nine-month period. On Thursday, Volkswagen announced hopes to build a sub-$35,000 EV in the U.S. within the next three to four years.

Like many automakers, Tesla reported a slight delivery miss in Q3 compared to analyst expectations. However, the company had warned about sales slowing during the third quarter in its Q2 earnings call, and the company has still maintained its lofty delivery goal for Q4, which seems like a good sign.

Even beyond the economic environment and hopes for an affordable EV, data analysis firms and dealerships warn that buyers are holding off until they feel convinced that the technology meets their needs. Thomas Niedermayer, owner of a Bavarian dealership that has been in business for 45 years, notes that the fast-moving technology advancements may have some holding out for more future-proof EV options.

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Credit: Reuters

“The main problem is uncertainty,” Niedermayer said. “Many assume that the technology will improve and would rather wait three years for the next model than buy a vehicle now that will quickly lose value.”

Flavia Garcia and Tom Carvell in Edinburgh, Scotland, are in the market for a new vehicle as their 15-year-old Toyota Auris requires replacement. Ahead of gas car sales bans, the couple says they would consider purchasing an EV if it weren’t for fears of charging infrastructure deficiency, battery life and sticker price.

“You want to do the right thing for the environment, but it feels like you’re setting yourself up for a very expensive investment that will make your life that bit more complicated,” Garcia told Reuters. “We’ll probably get a hybrid first.”

EV sales also slowed in September, and Felipe Munoz of JATO Dynamics says the slowdown will remain until affordable EVs are released.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s Model Y was the top-selling vehicle across Europe in September, and the company last month announced it had delivered one million vehicles across the continent. The U.S. EV maker is also rolling out its Model 3 Highland in Europe, set to continue over the next couple of quarters.

Other U.S. automakers, including Ford and General Motors (GM), have recently announced plans to delay the launch of more affordable EVs and to cut back on EV spending as they cite low demand. Over the weekend, it was reported that Ford will no longer build a plant with LG in Turkey, with the slowed pace of EV adoption being the main reason for the canceled plans.

“From a regulatory standpoint, they don’t have to push product out right now – they can afford to focus on profitability,” says Alistair Bedwell, GlobalData’s head of powertrain forecasting. “But they need to have an eye on Tesla and the Chinese brands, because they don’t want to get too far behind.”

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Credit: Reuters

According to a poll from the consumer research firm The Langston Co, hopes to buy an EV in Germany have remained steady in the past year, though rising sales suggest that some automakers have finally caught up to supply chain bottlenecks, according to Insights Manager Ben DuCharme.

Philip Nothard, insight director at dealer services firm Cox Automotive, says that concerns around low residual values have also lowered customer sentiment, with many choosing vehicle purchases based on what they think they can resell in a few years.

“We call it the valley of death, which we will be going through in 2024 to 2027: low residual values, high supply, and low demand,” Nothard said.

Tesla Model 3 and Y still dominating U.S. EV market, shows data

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.

Zach is a renewable energy reporter who has been covering electric vehicles since 2020. He grew up in Fremont, California, and he currently lives in Colorado. His work has appeared in the Chicago Tribune, KRON4 San Francisco, FOX31 Denver, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and many other publications. When he isn't covering Tesla or other EV companies, you can find him writing and performing music, drinking a good cup of coffee, or hanging out with his cats, Banks and Freddie. Reach out at zach@teslarati.com, find him on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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NASA taps SpaceX for more astronaut missions as Boeing Starliner remains grounded

NASA just gave SpaceX a $946 million contract for three more astronaut missions through 2030.

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NASA has awarded SpaceX a $946 million contract modification covering three more astronaut missions to the International Space Station, according to an announcement the agency published Friday. The award adds Crew-15, Crew-16, and Crew-17 to SpaceX’s existing Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contract, bringing the agreement’s total value to $5.92 billion across 17 flights.

SpaceX confirmed the award on X, writing that it was excited for Falcon 9 and Dragon to launch NASA’s Crew-15, 16, and 17 missions to the Space Station from Florida. The new missions cover ground, launch, in orbit, and return operations, along with cargo transport and a lifeboat capability while docked at the station, and the period of performance runs through 2030.

The award follows a notice of intent NASA issued in May, when the agency first signaled it would purchase up to six additional post certification missions from SpaceX. Teslarati covered that filing at the time, noting NASA cited technical issues and schedule delays encountered by Boeing as a driving factor. Friday’s contract modification locks in three of those six missions, with the remaining three left open for NASA to award later, potentially to Boeing if Starliner clears certification.

Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner has still not flown an operational crew rotation mission for NASA. The spacecraft’s most recent crewed test flight in 2024 ended without the astronauts returning aboard Starliner, and the company has spent the time since working through thruster problems. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said this week that SpaceX is not retiring Crew Dragon today, for sure, while stopping short of committing to fly it past 2030.

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Crew-12 is currently docked at the space station, and NASA has said Crew-13 is targeting a launch in the coming weeks. The newly awarded Crew-15 through Crew-17 missions extend SpaceX’s role as NASA’s primary way of getting astronauts to and from orbit well into the back half of the decade, regardless of what happens with Starliner or Starship in the meantime.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

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Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla and SpaceX take “Terafab” Trademark fight to Federal Court

Tesla and SpaceX sue a small Illinois firm after cease and desist letters over Terafab.

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SpaceX Terafab rendering

Tesla and SpaceX are asking a federal judge to rule that their planned Terafab chip factory does not infringe a small Illinois company’s trademark, a request that arrives only after months of quiet negotiation broke down this summer.

The dispute traces to May 18, when Tesla filed three U.S. trademark applications for “Terafab” and “Tesla Terafab,” covering semiconductor chips and related chip making services. TERA-print LLC, a nanotechnology company that has held a federal trademark for “Tera-Fab” since 2021, responded five days later with a cease and desist letter. According to the lawsuit, first reported by Reuters, TERA-print argued that Tesla and SpaceX’s use of “Terafab” would confuse consumers familiar with its own trademark, which covers a desktop photolithography printer sold to researchers for sensor and bioengineering work.

What stands out in the filing is the timing of TERA-print’s own paperwork. One day before sending that cease and desist letter, on May 22, TERA-print applied to expand its existing registration to cover semiconductor materials, silicon chips, nanoelectronic devices and AI design services, categories it had not previously claimed. Tesla and SpaceX call that filing opportunistic in their complaint, noting it arrived two months after Tesla’s public Terafab announcement and just days after Tesla’s own trademark applications went in.

Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry

By June 10, TERA-print was threatening to sue for federal trademark infringement, false designation of origin and unfair competition, the complaint states. Rather than wait to be sued, Tesla, SpaceX and SpaceXAI met with TERA-print six separate times between June and August trying to resolve the dispute directly. Those talks collapsed, and the companies filed for declaratory judgment this week in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, asking a judge to find that “Terafab” does not infringe TERA-print’s mark before TERA-print can file a claim of its own.

TERA-print isn’t backing down. The company told PCMag it discussed a settlement with Tesla as recently as September 2 and feels misled by what it called Tesla’s professed interest in settling. Its CTO, Andrey Ivankin, said TERA-print holds a Defense Department contract to fabricate semiconductors and partially owns Mattiq Inc., an AI company built on TERA-print’s products, and that the company will vigorously defend its rights.

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Tesla and SpaceX argue the overlap is superficial. Terafab is planned as a $16.8 billion complex spanning roughly 100 million square feet at the Grimes County site SpaceX confirmed last month, built to produce chips for Optimus robots, Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s orbital data center ambitions, a scale and purpose the companies say no reasonable consumer would confuse with a tabletop lab printer. TERA-print’s product line has stayed focused on lithography tools for biological and sensor research since it registered its mark in 2021.

The trademark fight is the second legal dispute tied to the Terafab project in the past week, following a separate SpaceX suit aimed at keeping company records about the facility out of public view, as KBTX reported. Whether construction proceeds under the Terafab name now depends on a federal judge in Austin.

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