Ahead of the General Motors (GM) earnings call this week, the automaker has new union contracts and is expected to report around $10 billion in earnings. However, challenges remain for GM, including electric vehicle (EV) production constraints and the ongoing effects of an accident involving one of its self-driving subsidiary Cruise’s robotaxis in October.
GM will report Q4 and FY 2023 earnings on Tuesday, and the company said in November it expected to earn almost $10 billion throughout 2023—despite around $1.1 billion being lost during historic six-week strikes from the United Auto Workers (UAW) union.
Analysts will be looking to see how GM plans to manage its upcoming launch of the Equinox EV, despite past production issues. In addition, onlookers will want to see how the automaker can navigate its self-driving unit Cruise this year, after an accident with a pedestrian in October rocked operations at the startup.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood: Ford and GM’s EV slowdown may benefit Tesla
Morningstar U.S. Auto Equity Analyst David Whiston says he hopes to see what kind of tone CEO Mary Barra and CFO Paul Jacobsen are setting for 2024 during the call, along with the company’s financial expectations given the recent events (via Automotive News).
According to Whiston, this year “should be at least a solid year for them, if not better.”
Other analysts expect the effects of the UAW strikes to have a larger impact on GM’s 2023 numbers, as highlighted by Bank of America analysts in a BofA Global Research note published last week.
“GM and Ford are likely to post a lighter finish to 2023 given pressures from the UAW strike, which impaired production,” the note said. “The greatest focus [will] be on EV expectations since sentiment on electrification has quickly soured.”
In November, GM also announced a $10 billion share buyback plan to help boost Wall Street confidence following the new UAW labor agreement.
EV Production Constraints at GM
GM has struggled to ramp up production of its Ultium EV platform, partially due to an issue with an automation equipment supplier that significantly delayed assembly of battery modules. Last month, the automaker was forced to issue a stop sale on the Blazer EV to address software quality issues.
In November, Barra highlighted the recent production issues, saying that GM “didn’t execute well this year as it relates to demonstrating our EV capability.” In 2024, however, Barra said she expects production to be “significantly higher.”
GM plans to begin production of its upcoming Equinox EV later this year, expected to be a mass-market vehicle priced around $35,000 with shipping.
“That needs to be a flawless launch,” Whiston added. “There’s a space of affordable EVs that Tesla is not in yet, and you don’t want Tesla to be first.”
GM Self-Driving Subsidiary Cruise Runs into Trouble
Along with GM’s need to smooth things out on the production side, the company’s robotaxi company Cruise has been spiraling since one of its driverless vehicles dragged and pinned a pedestrian in October. The startup’s license to operate self-driving vehicles was immediately revoked by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), which went on to say that the company “misrepresented” and “omitted” critical details about the accident in its follow-up correspondence with the state.
Since then, the company founders have resigned along with several executives, and the GM subsidiary has laid off almost a quarter of its workforce. Following an independent review of the accident from GM-hired law firm Quinn Emanuel, the results of which were shared last week, it was discovered that a lack of internet connectivity may have hindered Cruise’s ability to share video from the incident with regulators.
Cruise is set to appear before the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in a hearing on February 6.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
