News
SpaceX backup Starship reaches full height after nosecone installation
SpaceX has installed another Starship’s nosecone, all but completing the second full-size prototype a matter of days before the first fully-assembled Starship’s risky launch debut.
Over the last two months, SpaceX has effectively put Starship number 8 (SN8) through an almost nonstop series of tests, completing at least four separate cryogenic proof tests, four Raptor engine static fires, and much more. The company’s South Texas team have also dodged an array of technical bugs; installed, plumbed, and wired what amounts to ~40% of Starship (the nose section) while fully exposed to the coastal elements; and even narrowly avoided a potentially catastrophic failure.
In spite of the many hurdles thrown up and delays resultant, CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this week that Starship SN8 is scheduled to attempt its 15-kilometer (~50,000 ft) launch debut as early as Monday, November 30th. Musk, however, does not see success as the most probable outcome.
Why, then, push to launch Starship SN8 when, in Musk’s own words, the probability of success is as low as “33%”? As previously discussed many times in the history of Teslarati’s BFR and Starship coverage, SpaceX’s attitude towards technology development is (unfortunately) relatively unique in the aerospace industry. While once a backbone of major parts of NASA’s Apollo Program moonshot, modern aerospace companies simply do not take risks, instead choosing a systems engineering methodology and waterfall-style development approach, attempting to understand and design out every single problem to ensure success on the first try.
The result: extremely predictable, conservative solutions that take huge sums of money and time to field but yield excellent reliability and all but guarantee moderate success. SpaceX, on the other hand, borrows from early US and German rocket groups and, more recently, software companies to end up with a development approach that prioritizes efficiency, speed, and extensive testing, forever pushing the envelope and thus continually improving whatever is built.
In the early stages of any program, the results of that approach can look extremely unusual and rudimentary without context (i.e. Starhopper, above), but building and testing a minimum viable product or prototype is a very intentional foundation. Particularly at the start, those minimal prototypes are extremely cheap and almost singularly focused on narrowing a vast range of design options to something more palatable. As those prototypes rapidly teach their builders what the right and wrong questions and design decisions are, more focused and refined prototypes are simultaneously built and tested.
Done well, the agile approach is often quite similar to evolution, where prototype failures inform necessary design changes and killing off dead-end strategies, designs, and assumptions before they can be built upon. In many cases, compared to cautious waterfall-style development, it will even produce results that are both better, cheaper, and faster to realize. SpaceX’s Starship program is perhaps the most visible example in history, made all the more interesting and controversial by the fact that it’s still somewhere in between its early, chaotic development phase and a clear path to a viable product.
On the build side of things, SpaceX has created a truly incredible ad hoc factory from next to nothing, succeeding to the point that the company is now arguably testing and pushing the envelope too slowly. As of November 2020, no fewer than eight full-size Starships and the first Super Heavy booster prototype are visibly under construction. Most recently, Starship SN9 was stacked to its full height, kicking off nosecone installation while still at the build site (unlike SN8). SN10’s completed tank section is likely ready to begin flap installation within the next few days, while Starship SN11 is perhaps a week or two behind that. Additionally, large tank sections of Starships SN12, SN13, SN14, SN15, and (most likely) SN16 are already completed and have all been spotted in the last few weeks.
Some ~90% of the above work was likely started after Starship SN8 first left the factory and rolled to the launch pad on September 26th. In many regards, SN8 has been the first to reach multiple major milestones, largely explaining the relatively plodding pace of its test program compared to SN4, SN5, and SN6.
Ultimately, SN9’s imminent completion – effectively a superior, more refined copy of SN8 – means that Starship SN8’s utility to SpaceX is rapidly deteriorating. The company would almost assuredly never skip an opportunity to learn, meaning that there’s no plausible future in which SN8 testing doesn’t continue, but that doesn’t mean that SpaceX can’t turn its risk tolerance to 11. In essence, accept a 67% (or higher) chance of Starship SN8’s violent destruction but learn as much as possible in the process. As long as good data is gathered, SN8’s launch debut will be a success for Starship whether the rocket lands in one or several pieces.
News
Tesla Semi completes 5,000-mile winter trial with thyssenkrupp
The test covered nearly 5,000 miles in winter conditions.
thyssenkrupp Supply Chain Services has completed a three-week pilot of the Tesla Semi at one of its California logistics hubs, marking a new step in the company’s sustainability push. The test covered nearly 5,000 miles in winter conditions and focused on evaluating the electric Class 8 truck’s efficiency, transparency, and operational performance.
Tesla Semi offers efficiency gains and real-time logistics visibility
During the pilot, the Tesla Semi was used for active freight delivery, including routes over the Altamont Pass. thyssenkrupp evaluated the vehicle’s ability to reduce downtime, enhance delivery speed, and offer greater real-time supply chain visibility, the company noted in a press release.
Live diagnostics and performance monitoring allowed the logistics provider to track metrics such as speed, routes, and overall efficiency—data that supports smarter and more transparent logistics operations.
“The Tesla Semi aligns with our ongoing commitment to sustainability and operational excellence,” said Bob Denehy, Chief Commercial Officer at thyssenkrupp Supply Chain Services. “Its efficiency and diagnostic features, and low environmental impact make it a natural fit for our evolving logistics strategy.”
Pilot builds on long-term partnership with Tesla and green energy goals
A logistics partner to Tesla since 2015, thyssenkrupp Supply Chain Services was one of the first companies selected to test the Tesla Semi in a real-world setting. The trial reinforces the company’s push into renewable energy logistics and reflects its long-term goal of integrating alternative-fuel technologies across its operations.
Plans are now underway to begin adding electric Semis to its fleet as part of a wider emissions-reduction effort. The pilot is thus the latest example of how logistics providers are embracing next-generation transport technologies to meet environmental goals and enhance supply chain performance.
News
Tesla Semi shows strong results in ArcBest’s real-world freight trial
The truck handled varied terrain, including a 7,200-foot climb over Donner Pass.
ArcBest has successfully wrapped up a three-week pilot program testing a Class 8 Tesla Semi in over-the-road applications. The trial was conducted through ArcBest’s ABF Freight division, and it covered routes between Reno and Sacramento and regional operations around the Bay Area.
Tesla Semi pilot sees strong performance and positive driver feedback
The Tesla Semi logged 4,494 miles during the pilot, averaging 321 miles per day with an energy efficiency of 1.55 kWh per mile. The Tesla Semi handled varied terrain, including a 7,200-foot climb over Donner Pass, and delivered performance comparable to diesel counterparts.
Drivers who participated in the pilot also gave positive feedback to the Tesla Semi, citing the Class 8 all-electric truck’s comfort, safety, and visibility thanks to features like a center seating position and intuitive controls. Matt Godfrey, president of ABF Freight, shared his thoughts on the pilot in a press release.
“We’re not looking for a truck that performs well ‘for an EV.’ It must meet or exceed the performance and total cost of ownership targets of our most efficient diesel units. This pilot gives us great insight into the potential of EV semis in our operations,” he said.
ArcBest highlights need for more charging infrastructure
While the pilot met expectations, ArcBest noted that broader deployment of Class 8 all-electric trucks like the Tesla Semi will still depend on improvements in charging infrastructure. This way, longer-haul operations become more than feasible.
The pilot marks another step in ArcBest’s investment in sustainable logistics technologies. In addition to testing the Tesla Semi, the company operates a small fleet of EVs, including nine electric yard tractors, two electric forklifts, and two Class 6 electric straight trucks. Dennis Anderson, ArcBest chief innovation officer, noted that vehicles like the Tesla Semi are notable developments in the transportation sector.
“Freight transportation is a vital part of the global economy, and we know it also plays a significant role in overall greenhouse gas emissions. While the path to decarbonization presents complex challenges — such as infrastructure needs and alternative fuel development — it also opens the door to innovation. Vehicles like the Tesla Semi highlight the progress being made and expand the boundaries of what’s possible as we work toward a more sustainable future for freight,” he stated.
Investor's Corner
Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley
Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker.
In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.
Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential
Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.
“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.
Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.
Musk’s political ambitions
The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States.
Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.
Tesla Semi completes 5,000-mile winter trial with thyssenkrupp
Tesla Semi shows strong results in ArcBest’s real-world freight trial
Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley
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