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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s hat is safe after ULA Vulcan rocket launch slips to 2023
In the latest unfortunate development for SpaceX competitor United Launch Alliance’s next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket, it looks like CEO Elon Musk may have been right all along when he forecast major delays more than three years ago.
In February 2018, even before SpaceX had flown Falcon Heavy for the first time, detractors with axes to grind were already busy attempting to downplay the rocket’s capabilities. On February 6th, Falcon Heavy lifted off for the first time, launching a several-ton Tesla Roadster car into interplanetary space and marking the first debut of a super heavy-lift rocket since the 1980s. That successful launch also meant that ULA’s last bastion of competitive advantage – the Delta IV Heavy rocket, fittingly by way of monopoly – was no longer alone.
Indeed, mere months after its near-flawless debut, Falcon Heavy had already secured its first operational US military launch contract. Delta IV Heavy, on the other hand, had already been preparing for retirement as part of ULA’s plan to replace two complex rockets (Delta and Atlas) with Vulcan.
Musk mercilessly took to task ULA’s heavy-lift rocket when commenters brought it up, noting that Falcon Heavy is largely comparable in a partially-reusable configuration but completely outclasses Delta IV Heavy – while still being dramatically cheaper – if all boosters are expended. The SpaceX CEO estimated that Delta IV Heavy launches would cost ULA significantly more than $400M after the company had effectively announced the end of Delta IV Medium production, though ULA CEO Tory Bruno still claimed a launch price of ~$350M.
In response to a reply noting that ULA’s plan was to replace Atlas V and Delta IV with Vulcan Centaur for launches “after 2020,” Musk pulled no punches, stating that he would “seriously eat [his] hat with a side of mustard if [Vulcan] flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.” At the time, ULA’s CEO did not exactly seem to share Musk’s shocking appraisal of the situation, which was out of left field even for major SpaceX proponents.
At the time, ULA’s party line touted Vulcan Centaur lifting off for the first time in late 2019 – the very next year. Ironically, weeks after Musk threw down his hat-eating gauntlet, ULA announced that Vulcan’s first launch had slipped to “mid-2020” – with a second flight later the same year – to give the company time to move straight to a larger upper stage originally meant to debut later on. Six months later, ULA announced yet another delay for Vulcan, this time pushing the rocket’s launch debut from mid-2020 to no earlier than (NET) April 2021.
Three years later, April 2021 has come and gone and ULA’s latest public Vulcan launch target is now “late 2021,” though that is all but guaranteed to slip into early 2022. In the latest (not-so-) shocking development for ULA’s next-generation rocket, the company has now requested and received permission from the US military to swap out Vulcan for an Atlas V rocket on what would have been the vehicle’s first military launch.
Exercising a contract loophole that had to have been explicitly designed to give ULA – and ULA alone – the option to fall back on its Atlas V or Delta IV rockets if Vulcan were to experience major delays, Atlas V will now take over the ULA’s USSF-51 mission. As a result, Vulcan Centaur’s first dedicated ‘national security’ launch is now officially scheduled no earlier than 2023, saving Elon Musk from having to eat his hat.
As of May 2021, ULA has now replaced one Vulcan launch with an Atlas V and inexplicably closed nine Atlas V launch contracts with Starlink competitor Amazon, bringing into question whether the company is ever actually going to simplify its rocket production lines. Given that ULA no longer appears to be planning on reusing parts of Vulcan, the only possible way Vulcan will end up more affordable than the rockets its replacing is if it quickly becomes the only rocket ULA produces, which was originally the plan. With ULA now apparently going out of its way to sell Atlas V commercially instead of Vulcan Centaur, it’s difficult to argue that the company has any interest at all in lowering the cost of access to space or offering SpaceX serious competition outside of lobbying and greasing the hinges of revolving doors.
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Tesla extends FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe by three months
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Tesla appears to be doubling down on its European Full Self-Driving (Supervised) push, with the company extending its demo ride-along program by three months until the end of March 2026. The update seems to have been implemented due to overwhelming demand.
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Extended FSD demonstrations
Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager Ivan Komušanac shared on LinkedIn that the company is offering ride-along experiences in Germany, France and Italy while working toward FSD (Supervised) approval in Europe.
He noted that this provides a great feedback opportunity from the general public, encouraging participants to record and share their experiences. For those unable to book in December, Komušanac teased more slots as “Christmas presents.”
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt highlighted the extension on X, stating that dates now run from December 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, in multiple cities including Stuttgart-Weinstadt, Frankfurt and Düsseldorf in Germany. This suggests that the FSD ride-along program in Europe has officially been extended until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Building momentum for European approval
Replies to Merritt’s posts buzzed with excitement, with users like @AuzyMale noting that Cologne and Düsseldorf are already fully booked. This sentiment was echoed by numerous other Tesla enthusiasts on social media. Calls for the program’s expansion to other European territories have also started gaining steam, with some X users suggesting Switzerland and Finland as the next locations for FSD ride-alongs.
Ultimately, the Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager’s post aligns with the company’s broader FSD efforts in Europe. As per recent reports, Tesla recently demonstrated FSD’s capabilities for Rome officials. Reporters from media outlets in France and Germany have also published positive reviews of FSD’s capabilities on real-world roads.
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Tesla’s six-seat extended wheelbase Model Y L sold out for January 2026
Estimated delivery dates for new Tesla Model Y L orders now extend all the way into February 2026.
The Tesla Model Y L seems to be in high demand in China, with estimated delivery dates for new orders now extending all the way into February 2026.
This suggests that the Model Y L has been officially sold out from the rest of 2025 to January 2026.
Model Y L estimated delivery dates
The Model Y L’s updated delivery dates mark an extension from the vehicle’s previous 4-8 week estimated wait time. A detailed chart shared by Tesla data tracker @Tslachan on X shows the progressions of the Model Y L’s estimated delivery dates since its launch earlier this year.
Following its launch in September, the vehicle was given an initial October 2025 estimated delivery date. The wait times for the vehicle were continually updated over the years, until the middle of November, when the Model Y L had an estimated delivery date of 4-8 weeks. This remained until now, when Tesla China simply listed February 2026 as the estimated delivery date for new Model Y L orders.
Model Y demand in China
Tesla Model Y demand in China seems to be very healthy, even beyond the Model Y L. New delivery dates show the company has already sold out its allocation of the all-electric crossover for 2025. The Model Y has been the most popular vehicle in the world in both of the last two years, outpacing incredibly popular vehicles like the Toyota RAV4. In China, the EV market is substantially more saturated, with more competitors than in any other market.
Tesla has been particularly kind to the Chinese market, as it has launched trim levels for the Model Y in the country that are not available anywhere else, such as the Model Y L. Demand has been strong for the Model Y in China, with the vehicle ranking among the country’s top 5 New Energy Vehicles. Interestingly enough, vehicles that beat the Model Y in volume like the BYD Seagull are notably more affordable. Compared to vehicles that are comparably priced, the Model Y remains a strong seller in China.
Elon Musk
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
“And when I announced DGX-1, nobody in the world wanted it. I had no purchase orders, not one. Nobody wanted to buy it. Nobody wanted to be part of it, except for Elon.”
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast on Wednesday and commended Tesla CEO Elon Musk for his early belief in what is now the most valuable company in the world.
Huang and Musk are widely regarded as two of the greatest tech entrepreneurs of the modern era, with the two working in conjunction as NVIDIA’s chips are present in Tesla vehicles, particularly utilized for self-driving technology and data collection.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regrets not investing more in Elon Musk’s xAI
Both CEOs defied all odds and created companies from virtually nothing. Musk joined Tesla in the early 2000s before the company had even established any plans to build a vehicle. Jensen created NVIDIA in the booth of a Denny’s restaurant, which has been memorialized with a plaque.
On the JRE episode, Rogan asked about Jensen’s relationship with Elon, to which the NVIDIA CEO said that Musk was there when nobody else was:
“I was lucky because I had known Elon Musk, and I helped him build the first computer for Model 3, the Model S, and when he wanted to start working on an autonomous vehicle. I helped him build the computer that went into the Model S AV system, his full self-driving system. We were basically the FSD computer version 1, and so we were already working together.
And when I announced DGX-1, nobody in the world wanted it. I had no purchase orders, not one. Nobody wanted to buy it. Nobody wanted to be part of it, except for Elon.
He goes ‘You know what, I have a company that could really use this.’ I said, Wow, my first customer. And he goes, it’s an AI company, and it’s a nonprofit and and we could really use one of these supercomputers. I boxed one up, I drove it up to San Francisco, and I delivered it to the Elon in 2016.”
The first DGX-1 AI supercomputer was delivered personally to Musk when he was with OpenAI, which provided crucial early compute power for AI research, accelerating breakthroughs in machine learning that underpin modern tools like ChatGPT.
Tesla’s Nvidia purchases could reach $4 billion this year: Musk
The long-term alliance between NVIDIA and Tesla has driven over $2 trillion in the company’s market value since 2016.
Tesla extends FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe by three months
Tesla’s six-seat extended wheelbase Model Y L sold out for January 2026
