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SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket expected to reach major launch milestone in 2020

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Hours after SpaceX launched its 240th new Starlink satellite into orbit, Elon Musk took to Twitter to cryptically reveal that the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket could “reach triple digits this year” if everything goes according to plan.

Designed and built by SpaceX in the late 2000s, the Falcon 9 rocket launched for the first time in June 2010. Developed for the unfathomably low price of $300 million from clean-sheet design to first orbital launch, the original single-core Falcon 9 rocket – known as V1.0 – was about 48m (160 ft) tall, weighed 333 metric tons (735,000 lb) fully fueled, and was capable of launching almost 10.5 metric tons (23,000 lb) into low Earth orbit (LEO). Famously, when provided with Falcon 9’s basic specifications and characteristics, an independent NASA study estimated that the rocket’s development would have cost the agency anywhere from $1.7 billion to $4 billion to design and build.

NASA came to this conclusion in 2011, less than a year after Falcon 9’s first launch, and that the disconnect between the status quo held by NASA and the broader US spaceflight industry and what SpaceX tangibly achieved came to almost perfectly symbolize the rocket’s first six or so years of operations. Although SpaceX stumbled hard with two catastrophic rocket failures in June 2015 and September 2016, the company ultimately picked itself up, learned from those still-agonizing lessons, and has since shaped Falcon 9 into one of the most capable, reliable, reusable, and prolific launch vehicles ever flown. That latter characteristic – the sheer volume of launches Falcon 9 has come to represent – is what CEO Elon Musk was referring to earlier this week.

Specifically, after Wednesday’s flawless launch, Falcon 9 has now launched 80 times in its 9.5-year career, while Starlink V1 L3 marked the workhorse rocket’s 52nd consecutive success of 79 total. Impressively, while those 52 launches represent almost 65% of all of Falcon 9’s missions, SpaceX has dramatically improved the rocket’s reliability and availability over the last few years. In short, Falcon 9 has completed 52 consecutively successful launches in exactly 36 months (January 2017 to January 2020), meaning that nearly two-thirds of its lifetime launches have occurred in less than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational.

SpaceX's three surviving thrice-flown Block 5 boosters - B1048, B1049, and B1046 - are pictured here in various stages of recovery. (Teslarati, Pauline Acalin)
Falcon 9 B1048, B1049, and B1046 pictured in various stages of their most recent launches. Together, the three have supported twelve successful orbital-class launches. (Tom Cross & Pauline Acalin)

Put a different way, since the start of 2017, SpaceX has – on average – launched Falcon 9 more than four times (1.4 launches/month) as often as the rocket managed in its first 6.5 years of operations (1 launch every 2.7 months). Tweeting on January 29th, 2020 in response to an overview of the number of launches performed by each operational US rocket, CEO Elon Musk hinted that he believes “Falcon 9 will achieve triple digits” in 2020.

In other words, Musk thinks that SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket will be able to reach more than 100 lifetime launches by the end of 2020 — a feat that will require at least 20 additional Falcon 9 launches over the next 11 months. Speaking hours after SpaceX completed its third launch in January 2020 alone, it’s not hard to imagine – assuming, as Musk did, that “all goes well – that Falcon 9 will manage another 20 launches this year.

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Falcon 9 B1049 lifted off for the fourth time with a batch of 60 Starlink satellites on January 7th. (Richard Angle)
Albeit suborbital, Falcon 9 B1046 supported SpaceX’s second launch of 2020 – Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort test – on January 19th. (Richard Angle)
Finally, B1051 launched another batch of 60 Starlink satellites on January 29th, likely SpaceX’s last launch of the month. (Richard Angle)

Averaged out, SpaceX has performed a launch every 9.7 days in January. Extrapolated to the rest of the year and assuming no improvement, SpaceX could theoretically perform as many as 37 launches in 2020. It’s worth noting, however, that SpaceX’s third launch of the month was ready for flight as early as January 21st but was delayed more than a week by bad weather – obviously out of the company’s control. Had weather permitted, SpaceX even had a fourth launch planned this month – a Starlink mission that is now expected sometime in early February.

In simple terms, it would take one or several major upsets to prevent Falcon 9 from reaching >100 lifetime launches later this year. Even if every single customer launch abruptly slips into 2021, SpaceX has still said that it has plans for 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020 alone, potentially singlehandedly carrying Falcon 9 over the 100-launch crest.

Falcon 9’s next launch – the fourth Starlink v1.0 mission – is currently scheduled no earlier than (NET) early February, followed by another Starlink mission later that month and Cargo Dragon’s final space station resupply mission NET March 2nd.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

We decided to test it, and our main objective was to try to determine a more definitive label for when it would allow you to grab your phone and look at it without any nudge from the in-car driver monitoring system.

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Credit: Grok

On Thursday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 would enable texting and driving “depending on [the] context of surrounding traffic.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD

We decided to test it, and our main objective was to try to determine a more definitive label for when it would allow you to grab your phone and look at it without any nudge from the in-car driver monitoring system.

I’d also like to add that, while Tesla had said back in early November that it hoped to allow this capability within one to two months, I still would not recommend you do it. Even if Tesla or Musk says it will allow you to do so, you should take into account the fact that many laws do not allow you to look at your phone. Be sure to refer to your local regulations surrounding texting and driving, and stay attentive to the road and its surroundings.

The Process

Based on Musk’s post on X, which said the ability to text and drive would be totally dependent on the “context of surrounding traffic,” I decided to try and find three levels of congestion: low, medium, and high.

I also tried as best as I could to always glance up at the road, a natural reaction, but I spent most of my time, during the spans of when it was in my hand, looking at my phone screen. I limited my time looking at the phone screen to a few seconds, five to seven at most. On local roads, I didn’t go over five seconds; once I got to the highway, I ensured the vehicle had no other cars directly in front of me.

Also, at any time I saw a pedestrian, I put my phone down and was fully attentive to the road. I also made sure there were no law enforcement officers around; I am still very aware of the law, which is why I would never do this myself if I were not testing it.

I also limited the testing to no more than one minute per attempt.

I am fully aware that this test might ruffle some feathers. I’m not one to text and drive, and I tried to keep this test as abbreviated as possible while still getting some insight on how often it would require me to look at the road once again.

The Results

Low Congestion Area

I picked a local road close to where I live at a time when I knew there would be very little traffic. I grabbed my phone and looked at it for no more than five seconds before I would glance up at the road to ensure everything was okay:

Looking up at the road was still regular in frequency; I would glance up at the road after hitting that five-second threshold. Then I would look back down.

I had no nudges during this portion of the test. Traffic was far from even a light volume, and other vehicles around were very infrequently seen.

Medium Congestion Area

This area had significantly more traffic and included a stop at a traffic light. I still kept the consecutive time of looking at my phone to about five seconds.

I would quickly glance at the road to ensure everything was okay, then look back down at my phone, spending enough time looking at a post on Instagram, X, or Facebook to determine what it was about, before then peeking at the road again.

There was once again no alert to look at the road, and I started to question whether I was even looking at my phone long enough to get an alert:

Based on past versions of Full Self-Driving, especially dating back to v13, even looking out the window for too long would get me a nudge, and it was about the same amount of time, sometimes more, sometimes less, I would look out of a window to look at a house or a view.

High Congestion Area

I decided to use the highway as a High Congestion Area, and it finally gave me an alert to look at the road.

As strange as it is, I felt more comfortable looking down at my phone for a longer amount of time on the highway, especially considering there is a lower chance of a sudden stop or a dangerous maneuver by another car, especially as I was traveling just 5 MPH over in the left lane.

This is where I finally got an alert from the driver monitoring system, and I immediately put my phone down and returned to looking at the road:

Once I was able to trigger an alert, I considered the testing over with. I think in the future I’d like to try this again with someone else in the car to keep their eyes on the road, but I’m more than aware that we can’t always have company while driving.

My True Thoughts

Although this is apparently enabled based on what was said, I still do not feel totally comfortable with it. I would not ever consider shooting a text or responding to messages because Full Self-Driving is enabled, and there are two reasons for that.

The first is the fact that if an accident were to happen, it would be my fault. Although it would be my fault, people would take it as Tesla’s fault, just based on what media headlines usually are with accidents involving these cars.

Secondly, I am still well aware that it’s against the law to use your phone while driving. In Pennsylvania, we have the Paul Miller Law, which prohibits people from even holding their phones, even at stop lights.

I’d feel much more comfortable using my phone if liability were taken off of me in case of an accident. I trust FSD, but I am still erring on the side of caution, especially considering Tesla’s website still indicates vehicle operators have to remain attentive while using either FSD or Autopilot.

Check out our full test below:

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD

“Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes,” Musk said in regards to FSD v14.2.1 allowing texting and driving.

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Credit: carwow/YouTube

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced a major update with texting and driving capabilities on Full Self-Driving v14.2.1, the company’s latest version of the FSD suite.

Tesla Full Self-Driving, even in its most mature and capable versions, is still a Level 2 autonomous driving suite, meaning it requires attention from the vehicle operator.

You cannot sleep, and you should not take attention away from driving; ultimately, you are still solely responsible for what happens with the car.

The vehicles utilize a cabin-facing camera to enable attention monitoring, and if you take your eyes off the road for too long, you will be admonished and advised to pay attention. After five strikes, FSD and Autopilot will be disabled.

However, Musk announced at the Annual Shareholder Meeting in early November that the company would look at the statistics, but it aimed to allow people to text and drive “within the next month or two.”

He said:

“I am confident that, within the next month or two, we’re gonna look at the safety statistics, but we will allow you to text and drive.”

Today, Musk confirmed that the current version of Full Self-Driving, which is FSD v14.2.1, does allow for texting and driving “depending on context of surrounding traffic.”

There are some legitimate questions with this capability, especially as laws in all 50 U.S. states specifically prohibit texting and driving. It will be interesting to see the legality of it, because if a police officer sees you texting, they won’t know that you’re on Full Self-Driving, and you’ll likely be pulled over.

Some states prohibit drivers from even holding a phone when the car is in motion.

It is certainly a move toward unsupervised Full Self-Driving operation, but it is worth noting that Musk’s words state it will only allow the vehicle operator to do it depending on the context of surrounding traffic.

He did not outline any specific conditions that FSD would allow a driver to text and drive.

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Tesla Semi just got a huge vote of confidence from 300-truck fleet

The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.

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Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Semi is moving closer to broader fleet adoption, with Keller Logistics Group wrapping up a key pre-production planning session with the electric vehicle maker’s team this week. 

The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.

Keller’s pre-production Tesla Semi sessions

Keller Logistics Group, a family-owned carrier with over 300 tractors and 1,000 trailers operating in the Midwest and Southeast, completed the session to assess the Tesla Semi’s fit for its operations. The company’s routes typically span 500-600 miles per day, positioning it as an ideal tester for the Semi’s day cab configuration in standard logistics scenarios. 

Details remain under mutual NDA, but the meeting reportedly focused on matching the truck to yard, shuttle and regional applications while scrutinizing economics like infrastructure, maintenance and incentives.

What Keller’s executives are saying

CEO Bryan Keller described the approach as methodical. “For us, staying ahead isn’t a headline, it’s a habit. From electrification and yard automation to digital visibility and warehouse technology, our teams are continually pressure-testing what’s next. The Tesla Semi discussion is one more way we evaluate new tools against our standards for safety, uptime, and customer ROI. We don’t chase trends, we pressure-test what works,” Keller said. 

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Benjamin Pierce, Chief Strategy Officer, echoed these sentiments. “Electrification and next-generation powertrains are part of a much broader transformation. Whether it’s proprietary yard systems like YardLink™, solar and renewable logistics solutions, or real-time vehicle intelligence, Keller’s approach stays the same, test it, prove it, and deploy it only when it strengthens service and total cost for our customers,” Pierce said. 

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