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SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket expected to reach major launch milestone in 2020
Hours after SpaceX launched its 240th new Starlink satellite into orbit, Elon Musk took to Twitter to cryptically reveal that the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket could “reach triple digits this year” if everything goes according to plan.
Designed and built by SpaceX in the late 2000s, the Falcon 9 rocket launched for the first time in June 2010. Developed for the unfathomably low price of $300 million from clean-sheet design to first orbital launch, the original single-core Falcon 9 rocket – known as V1.0 – was about 48m (160 ft) tall, weighed 333 metric tons (735,000 lb) fully fueled, and was capable of launching almost 10.5 metric tons (23,000 lb) into low Earth orbit (LEO). Famously, when provided with Falcon 9’s basic specifications and characteristics, an independent NASA study estimated that the rocket’s development would have cost the agency anywhere from $1.7 billion to $4 billion to design and build.
NASA came to this conclusion in 2011, less than a year after Falcon 9’s first launch, and that the disconnect between the status quo held by NASA and the broader US spaceflight industry and what SpaceX tangibly achieved came to almost perfectly symbolize the rocket’s first six or so years of operations. Although SpaceX stumbled hard with two catastrophic rocket failures in June 2015 and September 2016, the company ultimately picked itself up, learned from those still-agonizing lessons, and has since shaped Falcon 9 into one of the most capable, reliable, reusable, and prolific launch vehicles ever flown. That latter characteristic – the sheer volume of launches Falcon 9 has come to represent – is what CEO Elon Musk was referring to earlier this week.
Specifically, after Wednesday’s flawless launch, Falcon 9 has now launched 80 times in its 9.5-year career, while Starlink V1 L3 marked the workhorse rocket’s 52nd consecutive success of 79 total. Impressively, while those 52 launches represent almost 65% of all of Falcon 9’s missions, SpaceX has dramatically improved the rocket’s reliability and availability over the last few years. In short, Falcon 9 has completed 52 consecutively successful launches in exactly 36 months (January 2017 to January 2020), meaning that nearly two-thirds of its lifetime launches have occurred in less than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational.
Put a different way, since the start of 2017, SpaceX has – on average – launched Falcon 9 more than four times (1.4 launches/month) as often as the rocket managed in its first 6.5 years of operations (1 launch every 2.7 months). Tweeting on January 29th, 2020 in response to an overview of the number of launches performed by each operational US rocket, CEO Elon Musk hinted that he believes “Falcon 9 will achieve triple digits” in 2020.
In other words, Musk thinks that SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket will be able to reach more than 100 lifetime launches by the end of 2020 — a feat that will require at least 20 additional Falcon 9 launches over the next 11 months. Speaking hours after SpaceX completed its third launch in January 2020 alone, it’s not hard to imagine – assuming, as Musk did, that “all goes well – that Falcon 9 will manage another 20 launches this year.
Averaged out, SpaceX has performed a launch every 9.7 days in January. Extrapolated to the rest of the year and assuming no improvement, SpaceX could theoretically perform as many as 37 launches in 2020. It’s worth noting, however, that SpaceX’s third launch of the month was ready for flight as early as January 21st but was delayed more than a week by bad weather – obviously out of the company’s control. Had weather permitted, SpaceX even had a fourth launch planned this month – a Starlink mission that is now expected sometime in early February.
In simple terms, it would take one or several major upsets to prevent Falcon 9 from reaching >100 lifetime launches later this year. Even if every single customer launch abruptly slips into 2021, SpaceX has still said that it has plans for 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020 alone, potentially singlehandedly carrying Falcon 9 over the 100-launch crest.
Falcon 9’s next launch – the fourth Starlink v1.0 mission – is currently scheduled no earlier than (NET) early February, followed by another Starlink mission later that month and Cargo Dragon’s final space station resupply mission NET March 2nd.
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Elon Musk confirms cryptic X post was related to SpaceX, not TSLA stock
Musk shared his update in a post on social media platform X.
Elon Musk has confirmed that a cryptic post he shared earlier this month was related to his private sale enterprise, SpaceX, not electric vehicle maker Tesla.
Musk shared his update in a post on social media platform X.
Musk’s cryptic post
Earlier this month, the CEO posted the cryptic words “You’ll Thank Me Later” on X. The post quickly gained attention on social media, as Tesla watchers and Elon Musk fans speculated on what the words could mean. With the announcement that Musk has purchased $1 billion of TSLA stock in the open market, some speculated that the cryptic post was a teaser of sorts to shareholders.
Musk’s massive TSLA purchase was the biggest in history, and it also stood as a notable vote of confidence for the company as it attempts to enter a new era led by robots, AI, and autonomous driving. This was likely one of the reasons why Tesla stock saw a notable rise on Monday’s trading. In another post, however, Musk confirmed that his cryptic post was not in any way related to his stock purchase.
All SpaceX
Considering that all the words in Musk’s post started with an uppercase letter, some space fans immediately speculated that the CEO was teasing something related to SpaceX. The company’s three drone ships, Just Read the Instructions (JRTI), Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), and A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG), after all, follow similar naming styles.
This was one of the reasons why some TSLA shareholders noted on X that Musk’s post was likely SpaceX-related. In response to one of these comments, Musk stated that these speculations are “Correct.”
The only question now is what exactly Musk was referring to in his post. Perhaps the CEO really was hinting at the name of the drone ship that will be tasked to retrieve Starship in the middle of the ocean.
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Tesla Model Y leads as weekly registrations in China hit Q3 high
Out of Tesla China’s 15,350 registrations, the Model Y once again accounted for the majority.
Tesla recorded 15,350 insurance registrations in China during the week of September 8–14, marking a 7.3% increase compared to the prior week. The figure also represents the highest weekly result so far in the third quarter of 2025.
Model Y still leads demand
Out of the 15,350 registrations, the Model Y once again accounted for the majority. Data shows 9,460 registrations for the standard Model Y, complemented by 1,030 units of the newly launched extended wheelbase, six-seat Model Y L. Tesla also logged 4,860 Model 3 sedans for the week as well, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The Model Y L, which debuted in late August, registered a modest uptick from the 900 registrations it saw the week before. Volumes remain relatively low, suggesting that the variant will not meaningfully change Tesla’s third-quarter sales trajectory. That being said, Tesla China’s previous comments about the Model Y L’s demand suggest that an uptick in registrations may be coming in the next weeks.
The ramp of the Model Y L will likely be a notable topic among Tesla watchers, as its ramp will still be quite a task despite the vehicle being just a new variant of the all-electric crossover. With this in mind, meaningful numbers of Model Y L registrations may hit their pace in the next quarter instead.
Tesla China’s momentum
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla’s retail sales in August 2025 totaled 57,152 units. That figure marked a 9.9% decline from August 2024’s 63,456 units, but a significant 40.7% increase from July’s 40,617 deliveries.
Quarter-to-date, Tesla China’s results show a 34.4% gain compared to the previous quarter but remain down 11% year-over-year. Year-to-date, Tesla is down about 7% in China versus the same period in 2024. With only a couple more weeks before the end of the third quarter, Tesla China’s registrations may help determine whether the company could catch up to its 2024 numbers this year.
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Tesla Supercharger access has proven to be a challenge for one company
Interestingly, it seems to be the Volkswagen brand specifically that is having issues with compatibility with Tesla Superchargers. Other brands under the VW umbrella, like Audi and Porsche, have already gained access to the charging network.
Tesla Supercharger access has proven to be quite the challenge for one company, as it continues to delay the date that it will enable its owners to charge at the most expansive network in the world.
Tesla Superchargers have been opening up to other brands for well over a year, and many car companies that are manufacturing electric vehicles now have access to the vast network that has over 70,000 locations worldwide.
Tesla to launch Supercharger access for VW owners later this year
However, one brand has experienced some issues with what it is calling “technical challenges,” specifically failing to enable cross-compatibility between its vehicles and Tesla Superchargers.
Volkswagen has had to delay its ability to enable customers to charge at Superchargers because there have been some difficulties getting things to run smoothly. A report from PCMag cites a quote from a Volkswagen spokesperson who said there are still plans to deliver this year, but there have been some delays:
“Volkswagen looks forward to making it possible for ID. Buzz and ID.4 vehicle owners to gain access to the Tesla NACS Partner Superchargers. The timeline has been delayed by technical challenges, and we ask for customers’ patience. We still expect to deliver access this year.”
Interestingly, it seems to be the Volkswagen brand specifically that is having issues with compatibility with Tesla Superchargers. Other brands under the VW umbrella, like Audi and Porsche, have already gained access to the charging network.
Volkswagen EV owners will need to use an official VW adapter to access the Tesla Supercharger Network once the issues are resolved. It still plans to launch access to its owners later this year, but its spokesperson did not announce any planned timeline.
Elon Musk confirms cryptic X post was related to SpaceX, not TSLA stock
Tesla Model Y leads as weekly registrations in China hit Q3 high
Tesla Supercharger access has proven to be a challenge for one company
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