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SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket expected to reach major launch milestone in 2020
Hours after SpaceX launched its 240th new Starlink satellite into orbit, Elon Musk took to Twitter to cryptically reveal that the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket could “reach triple digits this year” if everything goes according to plan.
Designed and built by SpaceX in the late 2000s, the Falcon 9 rocket launched for the first time in June 2010. Developed for the unfathomably low price of $300 million from clean-sheet design to first orbital launch, the original single-core Falcon 9 rocket – known as V1.0 – was about 48m (160 ft) tall, weighed 333 metric tons (735,000 lb) fully fueled, and was capable of launching almost 10.5 metric tons (23,000 lb) into low Earth orbit (LEO). Famously, when provided with Falcon 9’s basic specifications and characteristics, an independent NASA study estimated that the rocket’s development would have cost the agency anywhere from $1.7 billion to $4 billion to design and build.
NASA came to this conclusion in 2011, less than a year after Falcon 9’s first launch, and that the disconnect between the status quo held by NASA and the broader US spaceflight industry and what SpaceX tangibly achieved came to almost perfectly symbolize the rocket’s first six or so years of operations. Although SpaceX stumbled hard with two catastrophic rocket failures in June 2015 and September 2016, the company ultimately picked itself up, learned from those still-agonizing lessons, and has since shaped Falcon 9 into one of the most capable, reliable, reusable, and prolific launch vehicles ever flown. That latter characteristic – the sheer volume of launches Falcon 9 has come to represent – is what CEO Elon Musk was referring to earlier this week.
Specifically, after Wednesday’s flawless launch, Falcon 9 has now launched 80 times in its 9.5-year career, while Starlink V1 L3 marked the workhorse rocket’s 52nd consecutive success of 79 total. Impressively, while those 52 launches represent almost 65% of all of Falcon 9’s missions, SpaceX has dramatically improved the rocket’s reliability and availability over the last few years. In short, Falcon 9 has completed 52 consecutively successful launches in exactly 36 months (January 2017 to January 2020), meaning that nearly two-thirds of its lifetime launches have occurred in less than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational.
Put a different way, since the start of 2017, SpaceX has – on average – launched Falcon 9 more than four times (1.4 launches/month) as often as the rocket managed in its first 6.5 years of operations (1 launch every 2.7 months). Tweeting on January 29th, 2020 in response to an overview of the number of launches performed by each operational US rocket, CEO Elon Musk hinted that he believes “Falcon 9 will achieve triple digits” in 2020.
In other words, Musk thinks that SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket will be able to reach more than 100 lifetime launches by the end of 2020 — a feat that will require at least 20 additional Falcon 9 launches over the next 11 months. Speaking hours after SpaceX completed its third launch in January 2020 alone, it’s not hard to imagine – assuming, as Musk did, that “all goes well – that Falcon 9 will manage another 20 launches this year.
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Averaged out, SpaceX has performed a launch every 9.7 days in January. Extrapolated to the rest of the year and assuming no improvement, SpaceX could theoretically perform as many as 37 launches in 2020. It’s worth noting, however, that SpaceX’s third launch of the month was ready for flight as early as January 21st but was delayed more than a week by bad weather – obviously out of the company’s control. Had weather permitted, SpaceX even had a fourth launch planned this month – a Starlink mission that is now expected sometime in early February.
In simple terms, it would take one or several major upsets to prevent Falcon 9 from reaching >100 lifetime launches later this year. Even if every single customer launch abruptly slips into 2021, SpaceX has still said that it has plans for 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020 alone, potentially singlehandedly carrying Falcon 9 over the 100-launch crest.
Falcon 9’s next launch – the fourth Starlink v1.0 mission – is currently scheduled no earlier than (NET) early February, followed by another Starlink mission later that month and Cargo Dragon’s final space station resupply mission NET March 2nd.
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Tesla Model 3 named New Zealand’s best passenger car of 2025
Tesla flipped the switch on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in September, turning every Model 3 and Model Y into New Zealand’s most advanced production car overnight.
The refreshed Tesla Model 3 has won the DRIVEN Car Guide AA Insurance NZ Car of the Year 2025 award in the Passenger Car category, beating all traditional and electric rivals.
Judges praised the all-electric sedan’s driving dynamics, value-packed EV tech, and the game-changing addition of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) that went live in New Zealand this September.
Why the Model 3 clinched the crown
DRIVEN admitted they were late to the “Highland” party because the updated sedan arrived in New Zealand as a 2024 model, just before the new Model Y stole the headlines. Yet two things forced a re-evaluation this year.
First, experiencing the new Model Y reminded testers how many big upgrades originated in the Model 3, such as the smoother ride, quieter cabin, ventilated seats, rear touchscreen, and stalk-less minimalist interior. Second, and far more importantly, Tesla flipped the switch on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in September, turning every Model 3 and Model Y into New Zealand’s most advanced production car overnight.
FSD changes everything for Kiwi buyers
The publication called the entry-level rear-wheel-drive version “good to drive and represents a lot of EV technology for the money,” but highlighted that FSD elevates it into another league. “Make no mistake, despite the ‘Supervised’ bit in the name that requires you to remain ready to take control, it’s autonomous and very capable in some surprisingly tricky scenarios,” the review stated.
-->At NZ$11,400, FSD is far from cheap, but Tesla also offers FSD (Supervised) on a $159 monthly subscription, making the tech accessible without the full upfront investment. That’s a game-changer, as it allows users to access the company’s most advanced system without forking over a huge amount of money.
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Tesla starts rolling out FSD V14.2.1 to AI4 vehicles including Cybertruck
FSD V14.2.1 was released just about a week after the initial FSD V14.2 update was rolled out.
It appears that the Tesla AI team burned the midnight oil, allowing them to release FSD V14.2.1 on Thanksgiving. The update has been reported by Tesla owners with AI4 vehicles, as well as Cybertruck owners.
For the Tesla AI team, at least, it appears that work really does not stop.
FSD V14.2.1
Initial posts about FSD V14.2.1 were shared by Tesla owners on social media platform X. As per the Tesla owners, V14.2.1 appears to be a point update that’s designed to polish the features and capacities that have been available in FSD V14. A look at the release notes for FSD V14.2.1, however, shows that an extra line has been added.
“Camera visibility can lead to increased attention monitoring sensitivity.”
Whether this could lead to more drivers being alerted to pay attention to the roads more remains to be seen. This would likely become evident as soon as the first batch of videos from Tesla owners who received V14.21 start sharing their first drive impressions of the update. Despite the update being released on Thanksgiving, it would not be surprising if first impressions videos of FSD V14.2.1 are shared today, just the same.
-->Rapid FSD releases
What is rather interesting and impressive is the fact that FSD V14.2.1 was released just about a week after the initial FSD V14.2 update was rolled out. This bodes well for Tesla’s FSD users, especially since CEO Elon Musk has stated in the past that the V14.2 series will be for “widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received numerous positive reviews from Tesla owners, with numerous drivers noting that the system now drives better than most human drivers because it is cautious, confident, and considerate at the same time. The only question now, really, is if the V14.2 series does make it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by numerous HW3 vehicles.
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Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota Connected Europe designer Karim Dia Toubajie has highlighted a particular trend that became evident in Waymo’s Q3 2025 occupancy stats. As it turned out, 90% of the trips taken by the driverless taxis carried two or fewer passengers.
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota designer observes a trend
Karim Dia Toubajie, Lead Product Designer (Sustainable Mobility) at Toyota Connected Europe, analyzed Waymo’s latest California Public Utilities Commission filings and posted the results on LinkedIn this week.
“90% of robotaxi trips have 2 or less passengers, so why are we using 5-seater vehicles?” Toubajie asked. He continued: “90% of trips have 2 or less people, 75% of trips have 1 or less people.” He accompanied his comments with a graphic showing Waymo’s occupancy rates, which showed 71% of trips having one passenger, 15% of trips having two passengers, 6% of trips having three passengers, 5% of trips having zero passengers, and only 3% of trips having four passengers.
The data excludes operational trips like depot runs or charging, though Toubajie pointed out that most of the time, Waymo’s massive self-driving taxis are really just transporting 1 or 2 people, at times even no passengers at all. “This means that most of the time, the vehicle being used significantly outweighs the needs of the trip,” the Toyota designer wrote in his post.
-->Cybercab suddenly looks perfectly sized
Toubajie gave a nod to Tesla’s approach. “The Tesla Cybercab announced in 2024, is a 2-seater robotaxi with a 50kWh battery but I still believe this is on the larger side of what’s required for most trips,” he wrote.
With Waymo’s own numbers now proving 90% of demand fits two seats or fewer, the wheel-less, lidar-free Cybercab now looks like the smartest play in the room. The Cybercab is designed to be easy to produce, with CEO Elon Musk commenting that its product line would resemble a consumer electronics factory more than an automotive plant. This means that the Cybercab could saturate the roads quickly once it is deployed.
While the Cybercab will likely take the lion’s share of Tesla’s ride-hailing passengers, the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover would be perfect for the remaining 9% of riders who require larger vehicles. This should be easy to implement for Tesla, as the Model Y and Model 3 are both mass-market vehicles.
Tesla Model 3 named New Zealand’s best passenger car of 2025
Tesla starts rolling out FSD V14.2.1 to AI4 vehicles including Cybertruck
