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Tesla may be underpromising on its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance: insider
Tesla may not have provided a specific number for its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance, but it appears that the electric car maker is, at least internally, aiming for new records this year.
Back in the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Elon Musk remarked that Tesla would likely be able to “maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come.” Musk added that he believes Tesla will track “a fair bit above 50%” for 2021, though he also noted that he does not want to commit to a specific number.
A recent rumor from an individual reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s plans has now suggested that Tesla might be sandbagging its 2021 estimates. Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt, who shared the rumor on Twitter, confirmed with Teslarati that the information came from an insider familiar with the electric car maker’s sales strategy this year.
According to the insider, Tesla is internally looking to deliver 1 million vehicles in 2021, which should effectively double its already-record-breaking numbers in 2020. This is notably higher than the estimates shared by Elon Musk during the fourth-quarter earnings call. However, it should be noted that Tesla bulls have already been speculating that the company was intentionally sandbagging its 2021 delivery estimates, especially considering the recent developments in facilities like Gigafactory Shanghai and the Fremont Factory.
Tesla is currently in the process of refining the operations of its Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory. The machines, which manufacture the megacast for the Model Y’s rear underbody, can increase the company’s numbers at the Fremont Factory by making the all-electric crossover’s production simpler. In Shanghai, Tesla is also still only in the first months of the Model Y’s ramp. Tesla is aiming to start operations in Gigafactory Berlin, and perhaps even Giga Texas as well.
I (as well as many others) have said that we all believed Tesla was sandbagging their 50% delivery growth guidance for this year and felt they likely had an internal goal of 1M. This source has now confirmed that to me. Of course things can change, but that's the word for now 🙂
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 16, 2021
While the recent rumors about Tesla’s internal targets are exciting, the fact that Tesla is sharing conservative estimates for its 2021 delivery guidance is quite admirable, if not a step away from Elon Musk’s typically optimistic targets. Such a thing would be quite beneficial for the electric car maker to a point, after all, especially since Elon Musk’s overly-aggressive timetables have resulted in the company struggling to meet its publicly-stated goals in the past.
That being said, with all of Tesla’s vehicle production facilities producing EVs this year, the idea of the electric car maker delivering 1 million cars for 2021 does not sound too farfetched at all.
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Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in this key metric
Tesla Robotaxi has already overtaken Waymo in Austin in one key metric, but there’s still more work to do.
Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in one extremely important key metric: size of service area.
Tesla just expanded its service area in Austin on Monday morning, pushing the boundaries of its Robotaxi fleet in an interesting fashion with new capabilities to the north. Yes, we know what it looks like:
🚨 Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence is…
Finish the sentence 🥸 pic.twitter.com/3bjhMqsRm5
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 14, 2025
The expansion doubled Tesla Robotaxi’s potential travel locations, which now include the University of Texas at Austin, a school with over 53,000 students.
The doubling of the service area by Tesla has already made its travel area larger than Waymo’s, which launched driverless rides in October 2024. It became available to the public in March 2025.
According to Grok, the AI agent on X, Tesla Robotaxi’s current service area spans 42 square miles, which is five square miles larger than Waymo’s service area of 37 square miles.
Tesla Robotaxi (red) vs. Waymo geofence in Austin.
Much can be said about the shape… but the Robotaxi area is now ~3.9 mi² (10 km²) larger than Waymo’s!! pic.twitter.com/dVfh2ODxJC
— Robin (@xdNiBoR) July 14, 2025
The service area is one of the most important metrics in determining how much progress a self-driving ride-hailing service is making. Safety is the priority of any company operating a ride-hailing network, especially ones that are making it a point to use autonomy to deploy it.
However, these companies are essentially racing for a larger piece of the city or cities they are in. Waymo has expanded to several different regions around the United States, including Arizona and Los Angeles.
Tesla is attempting to do the same in the coming months as it has already filed paperwork in both California and Arizona to deploy its Robotaxi fleet in states across the U.S.
As the platform continues to show more prowess and accuracy in its operation, Tesla will begin to expand to new areas, eventually aiming for a global rollout of its self-driving service.
News
Tesla Megapacks arrive for massive battery replacing coal plant
Tesla Megapacks have started arriving on-site to the Stanwell Battery Project, just as Queensland prepares to wind down the Stanwell coal plant.
The first of over 300 Tesla Megapacks have arrived to the site of a massive battery energy storage system (BESS) being built in Australia, dubbed the Stanwell Battery Project after a coal plant it’s set to replace.
In a press release last week, the Stanwell Battery Project announced that the first Tesla Megapack 2XL units had arrived to the site, which is located outside of Rockhampton in Queensland, Australia. The project will eventually feature 324 Megapack units, set to arrive in the coming months, in order to support the 300MW/1,200MWh battery project.
“The Stanwell Battery is part of the diversification of our portfolio, to include cleaner and more flexible energy solutions,” said Angie Zahra, Stanwell Central Generation General Manager. “It is just one part of the 800 MW of battery energy storage capacity we have in our pipeline.
“Capable of discharging 300 MW of energy for up to four hours (1,200 MWh), our mega battery will be one of the largest in Queensland.”
Credit: Stanwell
Did you know Tesla’s Lathrop facility churns out a Megapack every 68 minutes? That’s enough energy to power 3,600 homes for an hour per unit! ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/bG6fpHkB9O
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 11, 2025
READ MORE ON TESLA MEGAPACKS: Tesla Lathrop Megafactory celebrates massive Megapack battery milestone
The state is working with government-owned company Yurika to facilitate construction, and the process is expected to create roughly 80 jobs. The project is expected to come fully online in May 2027, with initial commissioning of the Megapacks aiming for November 2025.
The Stanwell Battery is set to replace the nearby Stanwell coal generation plant, which the government is planning to wind down starting in 2026 as part of efforts to reach an 80 percent renewable energy generation ratio by 2035. Meanwhile, the government is also set to begin winding down the Tarong and Callide coal plants, while several other Megapack projects are being built or coming online. o ya
Tesla currently has two Megapack production facilities, located in Lathrop, California, in the U.S. and another that came online earlier this year in Shanghai, China. The Shanghai Megafactory shipped its first units to Australia in March, while both factories are expected to be capable of producing 10,000 Megapack units per year upon reaching volume production.
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The Tesla Diner is basically finished—here’s what it looks like
The company first broke ground on the Diner, Drive-in, and Supercharger location in September 2023. Now, it has served one of its first internal customers.
Tesla has finally completed the construction of its highly anticipated Diner, Drive-in, and Supercharger in Los Angeles, and recent photos of the interior’s “retro-futuristic” style are making their way around the internet.
X user Brad Goldberg shared photos from the Tesla Diner site last Tuesday, depicting some of the Supercharger stalls, indoor and outdoor seating areas, multiple neon lights, and even an Optimus robot. Goldberg also noted that there had been a “flurry of activity on site” while he was snapping the photos last week, suggesting that the restaurant location could be getting close to opening.
The Tesla Diner also served one of its first internal customers in the past few days, as Elon Musk posted on X on early Monday morning that he had just finished up eating a meal at the site:
I just had dinner at the retro-futuristic Tesla diner and Supercharger.
Team did great work making it one of the coolest spots in LA!
The photos also show that the site is pretty much done, with some of them even showing vehicles charging at the charging stalls.
You can see some of the latest photos of the Tesla Diner below.
Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X
Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X
Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X
Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X
Credit: TeslaKing420 | X
Credit: TeslaKing420 | X
Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)
Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)
Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)
Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)
Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)
READ MORE ON TESLA’S LA DINER: Tesla readies Drive-In Diner Supercharger for launch with app inclusion
When will the Tesla Diner open to external customers?
While it’s still not open to external customers yet, the news again suggests that the company could be close to an official opening date. Tesla first broke ground on the Diner in September 2023, after receiving a wave of building permit approvals throughout that year. Teslarati also covered much of the construction progress throughout last year, including when crews installed the first and second drive-in screens.
Located at 7001 West Santa Monica Boulevard, the idea was first discussed in 2018 by Musk and a few others on Twitter, featuring 1950s rock and roll, waiters on roller skates, and drive-in movie theater screens playing clips from some of history’s best movies. Notably, the photos of the front doors also show that the site will be open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, whenever it does end up opening.
Tesla’s progress on Supercharger with diner, drive-in seen in aerial footage
Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in this key metric
Tesla Megapacks arrive for massive battery replacing coal plant
The Tesla Diner is basically finished—here’s what it looks like
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