Investor's Corner
Tesla board backs Elon Musk as he faces the ‘most painful’ year of his career
Elon Musk is known for managing multiple companies, but even those who have the gift of multitasking have a limit. Amidst the fallout of his tweets about having funding secured for Tesla’s possible privatization, Elon Musk is starting to feel a little burned out.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO recently opened up in an interview with the New York Times. The publication noted that during the hourlong session, Musk acknowledged that he was getting exhausted, and that the past year had been incredibly difficult. Musk also admitted that the exhaustion, partly caused by 120-hour work weeks, was starting to take a toll on his physical health.
“This past year has been the most difficult and painful year of my career. It was excruciating. It’s not been great, actually. I’ve had friends come by who are really concerned. There were times when I didn’t leave the factory for three or four days — days when I didn’t go outside. This has really come at the expense of seeing my kids. And seeing friends,” he said.
Much like Tesla’s struggles with the Model 3 production ramp, a lot of the pressure Musk is currently feeling is caused by self-imposed goals. Elon Musk became Elon Musk due to his grit and determination, and he is never one to give up when faced with a seemingly insurmountable challenge. Musk’s relentless nature is one of the core reasons why SpaceX is currently working to conduct crewed demonstration flights of its Crew Dragon spacecraft as early as April 2019, and why the Model 3 is starting to make its presence known in the US auto market.
Jim Ambras, VP product development at Zip2, the first company that Elon and his brother, Kimbal, founded, recalls the insane amount of drive that fuels Musk. In a recent statement to WIRED, Ambras described how Musk would sleep on a bean bag close to his computer just to get work done. The former Zip2 executive also narrated that at one time, the Zip2 team invited Musk to go mountain biking. Unfortunately, the trail proved to be far more challenging than the team expected, even causing Elon’s athletic cousin Russ Rive to get sick when he reached the mountain’s top. Musk, who was not in any way conditioned to undertake such a physical task, was the last one to the summit. Musk finished the climb, but he pushed himself past his limits to do so.
“We’re all at the top waiting for him. We just assumed he turned around and went home. Then we see him coming up around the turn, and he was just completely red. Beet-red. He was riding his bike, he wasn’t walking his bike, and it was just clear that he was killing himself. He just looked like he was torturing himself,” Ambras said.
Well into 2018, Elon Musk is still doing much of the same thing. His hyper-aggressive targets for the Model 3, for one, ultimately caused delays in the vehicle’s production. Being a publicly-traded company, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) felt these effects. Today, Tesla shares are known for their wild swings and overall volatility, as well as their penchant for attracting passionate short-sellers. Tesla is currently the most-shorted stock in the market, with more than 30 million shares being sold short. Musk has been affected by short-sellers’ activities, and in his recent interview with the NYT, he admitted that people betting against the company are giving him a lot of stress. Musk even noted that he expects the next few months to be even more difficult, as attacks against Tesla would likely increase.
“(I am) bracing for at least a few months of extreme torture from the short-sellers, who are desperately pushing a narrative that will possibly result in Tesla’s destruction. They’re not dumb guys, but they’re not supersmart. They’re O.K. They’re smartish,” Musk said.
True to Musk’s own predictions, the attacks against Tesla had only increased since talks about the company’s privatization emerged. Musk is currently facing an investigation from the SEC about his tweets, and reports from several media outlets suggest that Tesla’s board is trying to do damage control. In response to some of these reports, Tesla’s board issued a statement to the NYT expressing its full support for the embattled CEO.
“There have been many false and irresponsible rumors in the press about the discussions of the Tesla board. We would like to make clear that Elon’s commitment and dedication to Tesla is obvious. Over the past 15 years, Elon’s leadership of the Tesla team has caused Tesla to grow from a small start-up to having hundreds of thousands of cars on the road that customers love, employing tens of thousands of people around the world, and creating significant shareholder value in the process.”
For now, reports are emerging that Tesla is looking for a Chief Operating Officer that can support Elon Musk’s workload. SpaceX, after all, is pretty much working like a well-oiled machine, and a lot of it is due to the work and efforts of Gwynne Shotwell, the COO and President of the private space firm. Musk stated that to the best of his knowledge, there is no active search for a Tesla COO, though he did admit that a couple of years ago, the company approached Sheryl Sandberg, the second-highest executive of Facebook, about the position. Rounding out his recent interview, Elon Musk stated that he has no plans to let go of his position as Tesla’s CEO and Chairman, but he did state that if there is anyone that can “do a better job,” he is very much willing to hand over the reins of the company.
“If you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now,” Musk said.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
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Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
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Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.
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