Investor's Corner
Tesla’s China factory can’t arrive soon enough amid escalating US-China trade war
Amidst the escalating trade war between the United States and China, American automakers such as Tesla have become the first victims of renewed, hefty tariffs on US-made products entering the country. In response to the 25% duties imposed by the United States government on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports last week, China has decided to strike back by placing a 40% levy on vehicles made in America.
The latest tariffs have forced Tesla to raise the prices of its Model S luxury sedan and its Model X SUV by 150,000 yuan ($22,647) to 250,000 yuan ($37,744). With the new duties in place, a fully-loaded Tesla Model S P100D now costs 1.47 million yuan ($221,937) in China, a far cry from the $147,000 price of the vehicle in the United States.
The latest tariffs come at a time when China implemented a reduction of its import duties for foreign-made vehicles from 20-25% to 15%. On the heels of the Chinese government’s announcement earlier this year, the response from Tesla’s customer base in the country was immediate. In Tesla’s Shanghai gallery alone, prospective buyers cleared out the store’s entire Model X 75D inventory in 24 hours after it was announced that the price of the vehicle would be reduced by $11,000 after the 15% tariffs were implemented.
While it is unfortunate to see the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China once more affecting the prices of Tesla’s vehicles in the country, it is pertinent to note that even with hefty taxes placed on its electric cars, Tesla was fighting the good fight in China, and it was still thriving. The company, after all, established its presence and its reputation under an environment where its cars were priced far beyond its local competition.
Tesla’s story in China is one that showcases the learning curve that the California-based electric car and energy company continues to go through. Tesla began taking pre-orders for the Model S in China in August 2013. At that point in Tesla’s history, CEO Elon Musk was not even sure how much the production vehicle would cost. Deliveries were also expected to be eight months away. Anticipation among Chinese buyers, however, were high nonetheless, thanks to a combination of factors including Elon Musk’s rockstar status, as well as talks about the vehicle’s performance and supercar-worthy acceleration. Pre-orders for the Model S topped 5,000 that year.
Unfortunately, Tesla was not able to support these first Model S owners properly. Due to miscalculations on its business strategy, Tesla ended up with a lot of disgruntled Chinese owners. One Model S buyer even made national news after he smashed the windshield of his own Tesla after the car arrived months later than expected. To top it off, the Supercharger network, widely considered as Tesla’s ace in the electric car industry today, was still in its infancy then, and China only had a small system centered around key cities. Things changed, however, on January 2015, when Elon Musk flew to China and met with President Xi Jinping. Musk also admitted to Tesla’s “earlier mistakes,” stating that he was nonetheless “very optimistic” about the company’s chances in the country. Tesla also attended the Shanghai Auto Show, sparking more interest in its electric vehicles.
- Tesla’s grand opening of its Changsha, China store. [Credit: @vincent13031925/Twitter]
- Credit: Dennis Chang via Twitter
- Tesla’s grand opening of its Changsha, China store. [Credit: @vincent13031925/Twitter]
- Tesla’s grand opening of its Shenzhen, China store. [Credit: @vincent13031925/Twitter]
In the months that followed, Tesla expanded its Supercharger network, curbing the “range anxiety” of China’s electric car owners. Word-of-mouth about the company’s non-dealership sales model also started spreading. Tesla’s business in China experienced a massive boost when it introduced the Model X as well, considering the country’s obsession with SUVs. Government regulations, such as Shanghai’s electric-car friendly license plates gave even more benefits to Tesla. By the end of 2017, Tesla had already opened the largest Supercharger in the world in Shanghai. The company’s sales in the country in 2016 also helped boost its revenue enough to join the Fortune 500 list for the first time.
With Tesla’s history in mind, the renewed tariffs from the United States and China’s ongoing trade dispute could actually have little effect on Tesla’s overall operations in the country. The new duties will result in lost sales — that much is a given — but Tesla’s pedigree as a luxury automaker that makes cars that are the ultimate status symbols in China remain undaunted.

Tesla’s approval for its China site from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. [Credit: vincent13031925/Twitter]
Tesla, after all, has not really started its mass market push in China. The Model 3 and the Model Y, the company’s two vehicles that are targeted to dominate in the midrange segment, have not arrived in the country as of yet. With Elon Musk confirming during the Q1 2018 earnings call that the next Gigafactory will be in China, and that the facility will incorporate vehicle production, the solely-owned factory should allow Tesla to avoid the import taxes imposed on its upcoming, more budget-friendly vehicles — trade war or no trade war.
Tesla’s China Gigafactory is expected to be the site where the electric car maker will manufacture the Model Y crossover SUV, as well as some of the Model 3. Both vehicles are targeted towards the mass-market, with Tesla estimating that the Model Y could see a demand of up to 1 million vehicles per year. With the Model Y and Model 3, Tesla could compete in China not only in the luxury segment, but on the more lucrative and more competitive midrange market as well. For now, however, Tesla’s efforts to establish its own factory in China seems to be going well, with the company being granted a final approval for its solely-owned electric car facility by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
Investor's Corner
Tesla and SpaceX get latest synopsis from Wall Street legend Ron Baron
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
Legendary investor Ron Baron says he will continue buying stock of both Tesla and SpaceX, as he continues his support behind CEO Elon Musk, who he says is a special person and “brilliant.”
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
With assets under management approaching $55–56 billion, Baron detailed his firm’s substantial holdings, outlined plans for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and painted an exceptionally optimistic picture for both Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX, framing them as generational opportunities that will reshape industries and deliver extraordinary long-term returns.
Baron Capital’s position in SpaceX has grown dramatically since the firm began investing around 2017. What started as roughly $1.7 billion has ballooned to more than $15 billion, making it the firm’s largest holding.
Tesla ranks second, valued at approximately $5 billion in the portfolio. Together with stakes in xAI and related Musk-led ventures, these investments account for roughly one-third of Baron Capital’s $60 billion in lifetime profits since 1992. Baron emphasized that the growth stems from Musk’s singular ability to execute ambitious visions—from reusable rockets to global satellite internet and beyond.
The centerpiece of the discussion was SpaceX’s expected initial public offering, targeted for mid-2026 following a confidential S-1 filing. Baron announced plans to purchase an additional $1 billion in shares at the IPO.
Ron Baron said today that he plans on buying an additional $1 billion of SpaceX stock during the upcoming IPO:
“At the IPO price, I’ve got an order for $1 billion. I want to buy more stock at the IPO. I don’t know if we’re going to get filled, but we’re going to try. I believe… pic.twitter.com/KOv1HvYcZ0
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 12, 2026
He described the company’s trajectory in sweeping terms: “This is going to become the largest company on the planet.”
He highlighted Starlink’s expansion of high-speed internet to every corner of the globe, the revolutionary economics of reusable rockets, and Starship’s potential to enable massive space-based data centers and interplanetary infrastructure.
Baron sees SpaceX not merely as a rocket company but as a platform poised for exponential scaling once it goes public, with post-IPO appreciation potentially reaching 10- to 20- or even 30-times current levels over the next decade or more.
On Tesla, Baron struck an equally enthusiastic note, declaring that “now is Tesla’s moment.” He projected the stock could reach $2,000 to $2,500 per share within 10 years—implying a market capitalization near $8.3 trillion and roughly 5–6 times upside from recent levels. While Tesla remains a major holding, Baron’s optimism centers on its evolution beyond electric vehicles into an AI, robotics, autonomous-driving, and energy platform.
He pointed to robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Optimus humanoid robots, energy storage, and the vast real-world data advantage from Tesla’s global fleet as catalysts that will fundamentally alter the company’s revenue model and valuation multiples. Baron views these developments as transformative, shifting Tesla from a traditional automaker to a high-margin technology and infrastructure powerhouse.
Throughout the interview, Baron’s admiration for Musk was unmistakable. He has likened the entrepreneur to a modern Leonardo da Vinci for his artistic, multidisciplinary approach to solving humanity’s biggest challenges.
Baron’s personal commitment mirrors this confidence: he has repeatedly stated he does not expect to sell a single share of his own Tesla or SpaceX holdings in his lifetime, positioning himself as the “last one out” after his clients. This stance underscores a philosophy of patient, long-term ownership rather than short-term trading.
Baron’s comments arrive at a time of heightened anticipation around SpaceX’s public debut, which could rank among the largest IPOs in history and potentially value the company at $1.5–2 trillion or more at listing.
For investors, his message is clear: the Musk ecosystem—spanning electric vehicles, autonomy, robotics, satellite communications, and space exploration—represents one of the most compelling secular growth stories of the era. While short-term volatility in tech and EV stocks may persist, Baron sees these as buying opportunities for those who share his multi-decade horizon.
In summarizing his outlook, Baron reinforced that the combination of technological breakthroughs, massive addressable markets, and Musk’s leadership creates asymmetric upside that few other investments can match.
For Baron Capital’s clients and long-term Tesla and SpaceX shareholders alike, the investor’s latest CNBC remarks serve as both validation and a call to remain patient through the inevitable ups and downs. As Baron sees it, the best days for both companies—and the returns they can deliver—are still ahead.
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.



