Firmware
Tesla’s end-of-Q3 gameplan is coming together with Software V9’s release
The end of the third quarter is drawing nearer, and Tesla is going full throttle in its efforts to achieve its ambitious self-imposed goals, including the production of 50,000-55,000 Model 3 and attaining profitability. As Tesla adopts out-of-the-box solutions to deliver as many vehicles as it can to reservation holders, the company also seems poised to get an end-of-quarter boost with the impending rollout of Software Version 9.Â
To say that Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) exhibited a lot of volatility over the past few months is an understatement. Since the start of the third quarter, Tesla shares traded as high as $387.46 and as low as $252.25. While Tesla stock has always been volatile, some of its wild swings this Q3 were actually augmented by Elon Musk’s actions. Earlier this month, for example, news of former CAO Dave Morton and ex-Chief People Officer Gabrielle Toledano’s departure from the company ended were augmented by reports of Musk’s behavior during a podcast with comedian Joe Rogan, where he seemingly puffed cannabis on air. On that day, Tesla stock dropped more than 5%, closing at $263.24 per share.
Amidst the drama that surrounded Tesla this quarter, such as its short-lived go-private initiative, as well as reservations about Elon Musk’s capability to lead the company, some Wall Street analysts such as Baird’s Ben Kallo have noted that the electric car maker’s fundamentals, particularly those directly connected to the ongoing Model 3 ramp, are encouraging nonetheless. Even some of the company’s longtime critics such as Goldman Sachs’ David Tamberrino recently stated that Tesla would likely meet its target of producing and delivering more than 50,000 Model 3 in the third quarter.
If Tesla does meet its Q3 production and delivery targets for its electric cars, the company can take a huge step forward towards profitability. Over the past months, Elon Musk has boldly stated that he expects Tesla to start showing a profit in the second half of 2018. Musk emphasized this in the company’s Q2 earnings call, when he noted that he “really want(s) to emphasize (Tesla’s) goal to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter, going forward.” Tesla’s ongoing end-of-quarter delivery blitz, which has so far involved out-of-the-box strategies, including a program involving volunteer owners helping in vehicle handovers, and Tesla building its own car carriers to address bottlenecks in the transportation of cars from the Fremont factory to delivery centers across the United States.
At this point, it appears safe to assume that Tesla would likely meet its production and delivery targets for Q3. Updates about the Model 3 ramp would probably be optimistic as well. Considering Tesla’s self-imposed goals, Elon Musk’s announcements, and the company’s ongoing delivery initiatives, it appears that the electric car maker’s gameplan for Q3 is coming together. But this might not be all. Â
On Tuesday, Elon Musk announced that Software Version 9, a highly-anticipated update expected to include the first features of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, will likely see a wide rollout at the end of the week. Not long after Musk’s post, owners who are members of Tesla’s early access program received Version 9, and based on screenshots of the revamped firmware, it appears that the update would include improvements and several new functionalities. It remains to be seen if Software V9 lives up to the hype, but if it gets well-received by Tesla’s consumer base, the company could end up adding one more item to its list of accomplishments for Q3.
Tesla is arguably one of the most emotional stocks in the market, attracting an equal number of passionate supporters and aggressive critics. As exhibited in the past few months, TSLA stock has a tendency to react on investors’ sentiment, to the point where Elon Musk’s questionable online actions affect the movement of the company’s shares. In this sense, every optimistic update from the company in these final days of Q3 would probably help determine TSLA’s trend in the coming weeks. Tesla’s end-of-Q3 play has so far involved a big push to deliver as many vehicles as possible. Augmented by Software Version 9’s release, Q3 2018 could be Tesla’s most impressive quarter yet.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla confirmed HW3 can’t do Unsupervised FSD but there’s more to the story
Tesla confirmed HW3 vehicles cannot run unsupervised FSD, replacing its free upgrade promise with a discounted trade-in.
Tesla has officially confirmed that early vehicles with its Autopilot Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised Full Self-Driving, while extending a path forward for legacy owners through a discounted trade-in program. The announcement came by way of Elon Musk in today’s Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call.
🚨 Our LIVE updates on the Tesla Earnings Call will take place here in a thread 🧵
Follow along below: pic.twitter.com/hzJeBitzJU
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 22, 2026
The history here matters. HW3 launched in April 2019, and Tesla sold Full Self-Driving packages to owners on the understanding that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. Some owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for FSD during that period. For years, as FSD’s AI models grew more demanding, HW3 vehicles fell progressively further behind, eventually landing on FSD v12.6 in January 2025 while AI4 vehicles moved to v13 and then v14. When Musk acknowledged in January 2025 that HW3 simply could not reach unsupervised operation, and alluded to a difficult hardware retrofit.
The near-term offering is more concrete. Tesla’s head of Autopilot Ashok Elluswamy confirmed on today’s call that a V14-lite will be coming to HW3 vehicles in late June, bringing all the V14 features currently running on AI4 hardware. That is a meaningful software update for owners who have been frozen at v12.6 for over a year, and it represents genuine effort to keep older hardware relevant. Unsupervised FSD for vehicles is now targeted for Q4 2026 at the earliest, with Musk describing it as a gradual, geography-limited rollout.
For HW3 owners, the over-the-air V14-lite update is welcomed, and the discounted trade-in path at least acknowledges an old obligation. What happens next with the trade-in pricing will define how this chapter ultimately gets written. If Tesla prices the hardware path fairly, acknowledges what early adopters are owed, and delivers V14-lite on the June timeline it committed to today, it has a real opportunity to convert one of the longest-running sore subjects among early adopters into a loyalty story.
Tesla announced its Spring 2026 software update, and it’s the most feature-dense seasonal release the company has put out. The update covers twelve named changes spanning FSD, voice AI, safety lighting, dashcam storage, and pet display customization, among other things.
The centerpiece for owners with AI4 hardware is a redesigned Self-Driving app. The new interface lets owners subscribe to Full Self-Driving with a single tap and view ongoing FSD usage stats directly in the vehicle.
Grok gets its biggest in-car upgrade yet. The update adds a “Hey Grok” hands-free wake word along with location-based reminders, so a driver can now say “remind me to pick up groceries when I get home” without touching the screen. Grok first arrived in vehicles in July 2025, but each update has pushed it closer to genuine daily utility. Musk framed the broader vision clearly at Davos in January, saying Tesla is “really moving into a future that is based on autonomy.”
On safety, the update introduces enhanced blind spot warning lights that integrate directly with the cabin’s ambient lighting, building on the blind spot door warning that arrived in update 2026.8.
Dog Mode has been renamed Pet Mode and now lets owners choose a dog, cat, or hedgehog icon and add their pet’s name to the display.
Dashcam retention now extends up to 24 hours, up from the previous one-hour rolling loop, with a permanent save option for any clip. Weather maps now show rain and snow with better color differentiation and include the past hour of precipitation data along the route.
Tesla has now established a clear rhythm of two major OTA pushes per year. As with last year’s Spring update, that cycle started taking shape in 2025 with adaptive headlights and trunk customization. The 2025 Holiday Update then added Grok to the vehicle for the first time. This Spring follows that structure: the Holiday update introduces new architecture, and the Spring update broadens it across the fleet.
Two notable features still did not make it. IFTTT automations, which launched in China earlier this year, were held back from this North American release for unknown reasons, and Apple CarPlay remains absent, reportedly still delayed by iOS 26 and Apple Maps compatibility issues.
Below is the full list of feature updates released by Tesla.
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 13, 2026
It appears that Tesla may be preparing to roll out some subscription-based services soon. Based on the observations of a Wales-based Model 3 owner who performed some reverse-engineering on the Tesla mobile app, it seems that the electric car maker has added a new “Subscribe” option beside the “Buy” option within the “Upgrades” tab, at least behind the scenes.
A screenshot of the new option was posted in the r/TeslaMotors subreddit, and while the Tesla owner in question, u/Callump01, admitted that the screenshot looks like something that could be easily fabricated, he did submit proof of his reverse-engineering to the community’s moderators. The moderators of the r/TeslaMotors subreddit confirmed the legitimacy of the Model 3 owner’s work, further suggesting that subscription options may indeed be coming to Tesla owners soon.
Did some reverse engineering on the app and Tesla looks to be preparing for subscriptions? from r/teslamotors
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite has been heavily speculated to be offered as a subscription option, similar to the company’s Premium Connectivity feature. And back in April, noted Tesla hacker @greentheonly stated that the company’s vehicles already had the source codes for a pay-as-you-go subscription model. The Tesla hacker suggested then that Tesla would likely release such a feature by the end of the year — something that Elon Musk also suggested in the first-quarter earnings call. “I think we will offer Full Self-Driving as a subscription service, but it will be probably towards the end of this year,” Musk stated.
While the signs for an upcoming FSD subscription option seem to be getting more and more prominent as the year approaches its final quarter, the details for such a feature are still quite slim. Pricing for FSD subscriptions, for example, have not been teased by Elon Musk yet, though he has stated on Twitter that purchasing the suite upfront would be more worth it in the long term. References to the feature in the vehicles’ source code, and now in the Tesla mobile app, also listed no references to pricing.
The idea of FSD subscriptions could prove quite popular among electric car owners, especially since it would allow budget-conscious customers to make the most out of the company’s driver-assist and self-driving systems without committing to the features’ full price. The current price of the Full Self-Driving suite is no joke, after all, being listed at $8,000 on top of a vehicle’s cost. By offering subscriptions to features like Navigate on Autopilot with automatic lane changes, owners could gain access to advanced functions only as they are needed.
Elon Musk, for his part, has explained that ultimately, he still believes that purchasing the Full Self-Driving suite outright provides the most value to customers, as it is an investment that would pay off in the future. “I should say, it will still make sense to buy FSD as an option as in our view, buying FSD is an investment in the future. And we are confident that it is an investment that will pay off to the consumer – to the benefit of the consumer.” Musk said.
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