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Tesla and EVs didn’t brake for the pandemic, and now the age of oil is ending

Credit: lourencovc/Instagram

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During the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered, with every major automaker seeing a steep drop in sales as the pandemic raged across the globe. That is, of course, every major automaker except Tesla. Despite the world practically stopping due to the pandemic, the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker sold more cars than ever before. Tesla even maintained its momentum from the previous year by posting five profitable quarters in a row, and it’s poised to end 2020 with an inclusion into the S&P 500 index.  

A Make or Break Year, and EVs Made It

What’s quite interesting is that it was not only Tesla that saw some serious momentum this year. Even as sales of internal combustion vehicles collapsed, EVs in general managed to thrive. A good example of this could be seen in Daimler and Volkswagen’s electric car sales in 2020. Both companies saw record-setting declines in their ICE divisions, but both companies also saw their EV sales this year doubling. This, if any, further highlighted that there is a growing demand for electric cars.

Even more impressive was the fact that 2020 was a year when the electric vehicle movement could have been crushed once more. The year saw the launch of some of the most important EVs for their respective companies. In Tesla’s case, this was the Model Y, a vehicle that Elon Musk expects would outsell the Model S, Model 3, and Model X combined. Volkswagen also launched the ID.3, a car that, if successful, could very well be the second coming of the ubiquitous Beetle. Failure on the Model Y and the ID.3’s part could have resulted in the EV movement getting set back again. That did not happen. 

The Volkswagen ID.3. (Credit: John Foulkes/Twitter)

Peak Oil

To state that 2020 was challenging would be a gross understatement. Amidst lockdowns in several countries, the world changed. Air travel all but stopped and working from home became the norm. Then in September, British oil firm BP Plc announced something remarkable: peak oil may have very well happened, and the demand for oil may never return to its prior levels. Granted, oil prices rose in November as vaccine trials continued and demand recovered somewhat in Asia. But even as the world approached a return to some form normalcy, it was evident that things would no longer be the same. 

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell echoed this sentiment last month. “We’re not going back to the same economy. We’re recovering, but to a different economy,” he said. Powell has a valid point. In the post-pandemic world, more people will likely continue to work from home. A good number of people will likely travel less as well. BP’s estimates noted that about 2/3 of the pandemic’s impact on oil demand will be from adverse effects on the global economy, and 1/3 will be due to permanent changes in human behavior. This behavior, it seems, includes a shift to electric cars. 

A Point of No Return for the Internal Combustion Engine

The transportation sector accounts for a large part of the world’s oil consumption. Bloomberg notes that over half of the world’s crude is used by the transportation sector, and 3/4 of that amount is taken up by wheels on the road. With car buyers going for sustainable vehicles during a pandemic, and with sales of ICE cars dropping steeply, it is starting to seem like the transportation sector’s demand for oil is only bound to get less in the coming years. With this drop in demand comes the end of the internal combustion engine. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Signs of the ICE extinction actually started becoming notable before the pandemic hit. As early as 2018, EVs started bucking the trend in auto sales, resulting in some analysts speculating if sales of gas and diesel-powered vehicles will no longer return to levels seen in years prior. The idea of “peak oil” happening seemed farfetched then, but amidst the pandemic and the collapse of ICE sales, the end of the oil age is looking very plausible. 

Batteries and a Path to ICE Extinction

The electric car age will be powered by batteries. It is then fortunate that batteries are a technology, not a consumable fuel. This means that as battery production reaches higher levels, battery prices are bound to get lower. Data tracked by BloombergNEF revealed that every time battery supplies doubled worldwide, the cost of batteries declined by about 18%. And considering that companies like Tesla are actively pursuing plans to produce batteries at unprecedented volumes, there is a good chance that battery prices will decline to such a degree that electric cars may reach price parity with gas and diesel-powered cars sooner than expected. 

Price parity will likely be the final nail in the ICE coffin. Cost, after all, is the one area where the internal combustion engine still has an edge against EVs. Once this edge is taken away, and once rapid chargers become as ubiquitous as gas stations, there will quite literally be no more reason left to own a vehicle equipped with an internal combustion engine. 

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving impressions after three weeks of ownership

I will be fair and tell you all what I truly enjoy, as well as what frustrates me about Full Self-Driving.

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Credit: Joey Klender

Tesla Full Self-Driving is amongst the most robust and refined semi-autonomous driver assistance systems on the market today. After three weeks of ownership, I’ve driven around half of my miles using it, and my impressions put me right in the middle of it being very impressive and needing some work.

Of course, if it were perfect, it would be driving us all around all the time while we sleep, scroll our phones, or watch movies in the cockpit. It does a lot of things very well, and it has managed to impress everyone I’ve put in the passenger’s seat.

However, there are some things that are obvious pain points, situations that need improvement, and areas where I believe it has a long way to go. Regardless, these are things I have noticed, and they may differ from your opinions based on your location or traffic situations.

Tesla Model Y ownership two weeks in: what I love and what I don’t

I’ll try to keep it pretty even and just highlight the things that are truly noticeable with Full Self-Driving. I won’t be too critical of the things that it is bad at, and I won’t try to give it too much of a pat on the back.

I will be fair and tell you all what I truly enjoy, as well as what frustrates me about it.

*Disclaimer: These Full Self-Driving examples were in use with v13.2.9.

Where Tesla Full Self-Driving is Great

Highway Driving

I have yet to have a critical intervention of any kind on the highway. I have driven on easy highways like Rt. 30 in Pennsylvania, and I have driven on congested four-lane parking lots like I-695 near Baltimore, Maryland.

Tesla FSD does a tremendous job on all of it. I usually use the “Hurry” setting of FSD with an offset of between 25 and 40 percent, depending on what I’m doing and where I’m going. Sometimes, I want to push it a bit, and at other times, I’m okay with taking my time and enjoying the drive.

I find the driving style of Hurry is more similar to the traffic around me than the Standard, which tends to drive like an 80-year-old on their way to Bingo.

It does a great job of being considerate, maintaining an appropriate rate of travel, getting over for cars that are tailgating in the left lane after passing traffic, and it always is where it needs to be when it needs to be there.

Taking the Stress Out of Driving

A few nights ago, I was having some trouble sleeping, and I was up at 3 a.m. I decided it would be a good time to get up, grab a breakfast burrito and a coffee, and head to the Supercharger.

(If you don’t know, I do not have home charging, and I will be diving into EV ownership without that in a future article.)

I let FSD drive me to the Supercharger and back while I was done. I was able to enjoy a beautiful sunrise without having to focus all my attention on the traffic around me, while still maintaining enough attention to the road to keep the driver monitoring happy.

It was really nice. I enjoyed the ride, and it felt like I was in an Uber with a very careful driver while I enjoyed the rest of my coffee and peeked at the sky every few seconds.

Learning and Improving

A few weeks ago, I approached an “Except Right Turn” stop sign. I have discussed how these are a Pennsylvania specialty, and the first time FSD encountered one in my Model Y, it stopped, even though we were heading right.

I took over, submitted a voice memo to Tesla about it, and went on with my evening. A week later, the car approached the same turn, and, to my surprise, it proceeded through the Stop Sign correctly, safely, and at an appropriate speed.

It was nice to see this improvement, especially since this is one of those regional issues that Tesla will need to address before FSD is fully autonomous. The change even impressed my Fiancé, who was with me during both instances we came upon this turn.

Where Tesla Full Self-Driving Could Be Better

Auto Wipers

Good gravy, these Auto Wipers always seem to give me a good laugh.

They never really have the right speed; they are either way too fast or not fast enough. There’s never been a happy medium.

It also loves to activate a single wipe of the blade at the strangest times. I’ve noticed that it actually seems to activate at the same spots on the road sometimes. There’s a hanging branch near my house, and every time we go under it and FSD is activated, the wipers wipe once.

It would be nice to set your own intervals for the wipers, but I am okay with the current presets. I do hope the Auto Wipers improve, because it could be one of the best features the car has if it’s more accurate.

It Struggles with Signs That Require Reading

The “Except Right Turn” sign is one example, but another is a “Stop Here on Red” sign that is recessed from an intersection at a stop light if it’s a tighter turn. Recently, I had to slam on the brakes as it was headed straight through one of these signs.

It can recognize Stop Signs and Yield Signs, but signs with instructions for an intersection appear to present a greater challenge for FSD.

Sometimes, It Just Does Things I Don’t Like

There is a four-lane light near my house; the two right lanes go straight, but the lane furthest right is for turning into businesses past the intersection. Some people tend to go in that far right lane, even if they have no intention of turning right into the businesses, and take off quickly from the light to cut ahead.

I’m not saying it’s illegal or even wrong, but I personally prefer not to do it. I am never in that much of a hurry.

FSD tried to do that the other day; I intervened and kept it in the lane that is designed to go straight. I wouldn’t say this is technically an intervention. I would just say it’s a move I wasn’t super comfortable with because I know people tend to get frustrated with those who cut the line. It’s an etiquette issue, and I didn’t want FSD to do it.

I also am not a huge fan of when there is no traffic in the right lane, yet it continues to cruise in the fast lane. I was taught to drive in the right lane and pass in the left lane. There are states where cruising in the left lane is illegal, and it sometimes tends to stay in the passing lane too long for my liking. I will turn on my right signal and get back into the correct lane.

These are totally disputable, and I am aware of that. Some people might not see a huge issue with these two examples, and I can understand that. My courtesy on the road differs from others, and that’s okay.

All in all, I’m pretty happy with FSD, and I will be continuing my Subscription after the three-month trial ends. In the coming days, I’ll be picking up a camera for FSD videos, and I’ll be able to embed examples of what I mean, as well as share full-length videos of my drive.

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Tesla gets price target increase on Wall Street, but it’s a head-scratcher

Delaney’s price target on Tesla shares went up to $395 from $300. Currently, Tesla is trading between $420 and $430, making the new price target from Goldman Sachs a bit of a head-scratcher.

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Credit: Cybertruck | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target increase from a Wall Street analyst today, who noted in his report that the company’s shares could rise or fall based on its execution in robotics and autonomy.

However, the price target boost still fell below Tesla’s current trading levels.

Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors today that Tesla has a significant opportunity to solidify itself as one of the stable and safe plays in the market if it can execute on its two key projects: humanoid robots and autonomy.

In the note, Delaney said:

“If Tesla can have [an] outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target.”

Delaney’s price target on Tesla shares went up to $395 from $300. Currently, Tesla is trading between $420 and $430, making the new price target from Goldman Sachs a bit of a head-scratcher.

He went on to say that Tesla could also confront outside factors that would limit the stock’s ability to see growth, including competition and potentially its own lack of execution:

“…although if competition limits profits (as is happening with the ADAS market in China) or Tesla does not execute well, then there could be downside.”

The note is an interesting one because it seems to point out the blatantly obvious: if Tesla performs well, the stock will rise. If it doesn’t, the stock price will decline.

We discussed yesterday in an article that Tesla is one of the few stocks out there that does not seem to be influenced by financials or anything super concrete. Instead, it is more influenced by the narrative currently surrounding the company, rather than the technicals.

Tesla called ‘biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen’ by Yale associate dean

Tesla’s prowess in robotics and autonomy is strong. In robotics, it has a very good sentiment following its Optimus project, and it has shown steady improvement with subsequent versions of the robot with each release.

On the autonomy front, Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi platform in Austin every few weeks, and also has a sizeable geofence in the Bay Area. Its Full Self-Driving suite is among the most robust in the world and is incredibly useful and accurate.

The company can gain significant value if it continues to refine the platform and eventually rolls out a driverless or unsupervised version of the Full Self-Driving suite.

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Tesla addresses door handle complaints with simple engineering fix

“We’ll have a really good solution for that. I’m not worried about it.”

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Tesla Model S self-presenting door handle
Tesla Model S self-presenting door handle (Credit: TesBros)

Tesla is going to adjust one heavily scrutinized part of its vehicles after recent government agencies have launched probes into an issue stemming from complaints from owners.

Over the past few days, we have reported on the issues with Tesla’s door handle systems from both the Chinese and American governments.

In China, it dealt with the Model S, while the United States’ National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported nine complaints from owners experiencing issues with 2021 Model Ys, as some said they had trouble entering their car after the 12V battery was low on power.

Bloomberg, in an interview with Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, asked whether the company planned to adjust the door handle design to alleviate any concerns that regulatory agencies might have.

Regarding the interior latch concerns in the United States:

  • Von Holzhausen said that, while a mechanical door release resolves this problem, Tesla plans to “combine the two” to help reduce stress in what he called “panic situations.”
  • He also added that “it’s in the cars now…The idea of combining the electronic and the manual one together in one button, I think, makes a lot of sense.” Franz said the muscle memory of reaching for the same button will be advantageous for children and anyone who is in an emergency.

Regarding the exterior door handle concerns in China:

  • Von Holzhausen said Tesla is reviewing the details of the regulation and confirmed, “We’ll have a really good solution for that. I’m not worried about it.”

The new Model Y already has emergency mechanical door release latches in the back, but combining them in future vehicles seems to be an ideal solution for other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.

It will likely help Tesla avoid complaints from owners about not having an out in the event of a power outage or accident. It is a small engineering change that could be extremely valuable for future instances.

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