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Tesla formally wins final environmental approval to open Gigafactory Berlin
The wait is finally over. After a long process that saw delays, controversies, and other drama, Tesla Gigafactory Berlin has won its final environmental approval from Germany. An official document confirming the update was published by the State of Brandenburg, outlining the next steps that the electric vehicle maker needs to do to start vehicle production in its Germany-based electric vehicle factory.
As per the state’s press release, the approval for Giga Berlin covers several activities, such as the production of up to 500,000 vehicles per year. The approval also includes battery cell production activities within the Giga Berlin complex, which should allow Tesla to manufacture its in-house cells from within Germany.
“The project, which was approved with the 536-page decision, includes the plant for the production of up to 500,000 vehicles per year, aluminum smelting plants and an aluminum foundry, plants for surface treatment, heat generation, and storage. The facility also includes battery cell production, an operational wastewater treatment plant, a fire brigade equipment house, a high-bay warehouse, as well as laboratories and workshops,” the press release read.
It should be noted that while it may have taken two years to get to this point, Gigafactory Berlin’s formal approval was still completed in a quick manner, at least relatively speaking. The past two years, after all, required the State Office of the Environment to not only inspect and approve the factory itself, but also the entire industrial area with several large-scale facilities. Environment Minister Alex Vogel expressed his thanks to the state’s employees and other authorities for Giga Berlin’s quick approval process.
“As a high-performing state administration, you have always focused on the technical requirements, the high level of protection of the environment, the protection of the general public and the neighborhood from dangers, even under the pressure of great public interest and unreasonable harassment as well as the legal certainty of the procedure. In times of climate crisis, the availability of water will play an increasingly important role for future developments and settlements. Above all, digitization can help to simplify and accelerate processes without restricting environmental standards and participation rights,” Vogel said.
District Administrator Rolf Lindemann emphasized that Giga Berlin benefits the region. The fact that the project faced much adversity, and was still able to achieve a milestone such as a final environmental approval in a relatively short time, proves that the project’s potential is vast. He also noted that Giga Berlin, as well as those that have been working with Tesla over the past two years to approve the project, shall face whatever challenges lie ahead with vigor.
“The Oder-Spree district described the Tesla Gigafactory as a real stroke of luck for the development of our region. We have therefore mobilized all our strength to help turn this unique opportunity into a visible success. It wasn’t always easy, and we’re anything but done when it comes to the final form of the overall project. But we all have reason to be proud of what we have achieved so far, despite all prophecies of doom.
“That is why we will face the further challenges that lie ahead with confidence and with undiminished vigor. I am referring to the official support of the further expansion stages, the completion of the battery factory and of great importance, especially for local politics: as far as possible, a stress-free integration of the Gigafactory into the traffic infrastructure . However, in order to be able to meet the sustainability aspect and smooth mobility in connection with production, it is of course necessary to start building housing close to the location and to create the associated social infrastructure. We trust in the same support from the state government that we have been able to rely on in the past,” Lindemann said.
While Giga Berlin’s final environment approval has been secured, Tesla still has to ensure that it meets the state’s requirements. These are highlighted by the mammoth size of its approval documents, which comprise over 23,700 pages in 66 files. More than 400 ancillary provisions are included, involving topics such as requirements for groundwater protection as well as water-saving and wastewater-reducing measures, species protection measures, limit values for air pollutants and regulations on their measurement as well as occupational safety requirements. Other specific rules on the plant’s operations, particularly with regards to how it affects the area’s groundwater, were also highlighted in the press release.
“There are 113 air pollution control requirements, which include respective chimney heights for each exhaust air stream. In addition, 22 requirements determine the methods and intervals at which the exhaust air is to be measured. 96 requirements for drinking water protection, waste water disposal and rainwater specify, among other things, limit values for discharge into the waste water pressure line and corresponding cleaning processes. When using building materials, it is important to ensure that no harmful substances get into the groundwater. With groundwater monitoring, both the formation of new groundwater and the quality of the groundwater must be checked regularly. In view of the tense water situation, not least due to climate change, it should be possible to react to changes as early as possible.
“After the inspection by the approval authority, the entire system falls under the provisions of the Hazardous Incidents Ordinance (12th BImSchV) and must therefore take special precautions to prevent incidents and limit the effects of incidents, as well as maintain an appropriate safety distance from adjacent protected objects. Tesla must draw up an incident concept and comply with special information obligations,” the press release read.
The state noted that Tesla may now start or continue with the further construction of Giga Berlin and that objections to the project now have “no suspensive effect.” It should be noted, however, that before Tesla can actually put its Model Y production facility into operation, several ancillary provisions must be met first. These provisions, which include the installation of measuring devices for air pollutants and precautions for fire protection and accidents, will be checked by the responsible authorities. Once Tesla completes this step, Model Y production for customer vehicles could finally commence.
Needless to say, all eyes are now focused on how quickly Tesla can meet the requirements for Giga Berlin’s operational permit.
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Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
