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No more “Tesla Killers:” It’s becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the “EV market” from the mainstream auto segment
Those who have followed the Tesla story for years would remember a time when practically every single concept car and production EV was dubbed as a “Tesla Killer.” The idea then was that while Tesla held the lead in electric cars due to its first-mover advantage, the company’s share in the EV segment would shrink once other companies like the Detroit Big Three decided to step into the electric car market.
Yet with Tesla completing over 930,000 vehicle deliveries in a year rife with chip shortages and supply chain issues, it is becoming more and more difficult to justify the idea of several companies competing in a limited “EV market.” Considering the ongoing rise in electric vehicle sales worldwide and the general decline in sales of vehicles equipped with the internal combustion engine, it is starting to become evident that today, there is no longer an “EV market.” Today, there is just a “car market,” and EVs are winning.
One does not even have to look at Tesla’s 87% growth in 2021 vehicle sales to prove this point. A look at how veteran automakers Ford and General Motors fared in 2021 would show how a notable degree of focus and seriousness in electric vehicles may positively or negatively affect an automaker’s numbers in the current auto environment. Both Ford and GM were hit, just like Tesla, with the supply chain crisis, but one could argue that General Motors ended up with the shorter end of the stick.
In Q4 2021, GM’s US sales tanked by 42.9%, Buick fell by 34.8%, Cadillac fell by 47.8%, Chevrolet dropped by 44.7%, and GMC fell by 37.7%. For the entire year, GM’s overall sales dropped by 12.9%. This ultimately allowed Japanese carmaker Toyota to overtake the Detroit veteran for the first time in nearly a century. It should be noted that GM’s electric vehicle push was practically nonexistent in Q4 2021, with the company selling all but 25 Chevy Bolts and one GMC Hummer EV before the end of the year.
Ford did not have an easy 2021 either. The company sold 1.9 million vehicles in 2021, down 6.8% from 2020. Yet despite this, there were notable points of strength in Ford’s results. The most evident of these could be found in the sales of the Mustang Mach-E, the company’s premium all-electric crossover that, at times, has been favorably compared to the Tesla Model Y, one of the market’s best-selling EVs today. Mach-E sales totaled 27,140 vehicles in 2021, making it the second best-selling electric SUV in the US. Interest in the F-150 Lightning also remained strong over the year, to the point where the company had to double its production goals twice to meet the vehicle’s existing demand.
Perhaps it was just chance, or simply bad luck on GM’s part, but one could notice that between the two Detroit veterans, Ford seems to be far more willing to walk the walk with the EV transition in 2021. General Motors might have announced various lofty targets, and US President Joe Biden might have dubbed GM CEO Mary Barra as the person who electrified the auto sector, but numbers don’t lie. In 2022, GM lost in the EV race by a wide margin, and its sales seem to have taken a hit by extension.
The coming year would be one for the record books. Various electric cars from both veterans and newcomers are expected to be released. Tesla has the Cybertruck and the Semi coming, and rumors are high that work on the company’s $25,000 electric car is underway. Rivian has the R1S ramp to look forward to, and Lucid has its work cut out with the ramp of the Air sedan. Ford has the F-150 Lightning coming this year, and GM has recently just announced the Silverado EV. Volkswagen is also expanding its ID lineup, with the highly anticipated Buzz, the successor to the iconic Microbus, launching this year.
Needless to say, 2022, and likely the years following it, would be one that’s characterized by the rise of electric cars. With veteran carmakers now playing catch up to companies like Tesla, the next years would likely see EVs take a more prominent section of the auto sector’s pie. With several countries and regions across the world poised to ban the internal combustion engine within the coming years, buying all-electric cars is starting to become common sense for the mainstream buyer. And that, ultimately, suggests that the “EV segment” has now transitioned into simply the “auto market.”
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
