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No more “Tesla Killers:” It’s becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the “EV market” from the mainstream auto segment
Those who have followed the Tesla story for years would remember a time when practically every single concept car and production EV was dubbed as a “Tesla Killer.” The idea then was that while Tesla held the lead in electric cars due to its first-mover advantage, the company’s share in the EV segment would shrink once other companies like the Detroit Big Three decided to step into the electric car market.
Yet with Tesla completing over 930,000 vehicle deliveries in a year rife with chip shortages and supply chain issues, it is becoming more and more difficult to justify the idea of several companies competing in a limited “EV market.” Considering the ongoing rise in electric vehicle sales worldwide and the general decline in sales of vehicles equipped with the internal combustion engine, it is starting to become evident that today, there is no longer an “EV market.” Today, there is just a “car market,” and EVs are winning.
One does not even have to look at Tesla’s 87% growth in 2021 vehicle sales to prove this point. A look at how veteran automakers Ford and General Motors fared in 2021 would show how a notable degree of focus and seriousness in electric vehicles may positively or negatively affect an automaker’s numbers in the current auto environment. Both Ford and GM were hit, just like Tesla, with the supply chain crisis, but one could argue that General Motors ended up with the shorter end of the stick.
In Q4 2021, GM’s US sales tanked by 42.9%, Buick fell by 34.8%, Cadillac fell by 47.8%, Chevrolet dropped by 44.7%, and GMC fell by 37.7%. For the entire year, GM’s overall sales dropped by 12.9%. This ultimately allowed Japanese carmaker Toyota to overtake the Detroit veteran for the first time in nearly a century. It should be noted that GM’s electric vehicle push was practically nonexistent in Q4 2021, with the company selling all but 25 Chevy Bolts and one GMC Hummer EV before the end of the year.
Ford did not have an easy 2021 either. The company sold 1.9 million vehicles in 2021, down 6.8% from 2020. Yet despite this, there were notable points of strength in Ford’s results. The most evident of these could be found in the sales of the Mustang Mach-E, the company’s premium all-electric crossover that, at times, has been favorably compared to the Tesla Model Y, one of the market’s best-selling EVs today. Mach-E sales totaled 27,140 vehicles in 2021, making it the second best-selling electric SUV in the US. Interest in the F-150 Lightning also remained strong over the year, to the point where the company had to double its production goals twice to meet the vehicle’s existing demand.
Perhaps it was just chance, or simply bad luck on GM’s part, but one could notice that between the two Detroit veterans, Ford seems to be far more willing to walk the walk with the EV transition in 2021. General Motors might have announced various lofty targets, and US President Joe Biden might have dubbed GM CEO Mary Barra as the person who electrified the auto sector, but numbers don’t lie. In 2022, GM lost in the EV race by a wide margin, and its sales seem to have taken a hit by extension.
The coming year would be one for the record books. Various electric cars from both veterans and newcomers are expected to be released. Tesla has the Cybertruck and the Semi coming, and rumors are high that work on the company’s $25,000 electric car is underway. Rivian has the R1S ramp to look forward to, and Lucid has its work cut out with the ramp of the Air sedan. Ford has the F-150 Lightning coming this year, and GM has recently just announced the Silverado EV. Volkswagen is also expanding its ID lineup, with the highly anticipated Buzz, the successor to the iconic Microbus, launching this year.
Needless to say, 2022, and likely the years following it, would be one that’s characterized by the rise of electric cars. With veteran carmakers now playing catch up to companies like Tesla, the next years would likely see EVs take a more prominent section of the auto sector’s pie. With several countries and regions across the world poised to ban the internal combustion engine within the coming years, buying all-electric cars is starting to become common sense for the mainstream buyer. And that, ultimately, suggests that the “EV segment” has now transitioned into simply the “auto market.”
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
