Tesla China’s vehicle sales saw a strong recovery once the new Model Y started customer deliveries. This could be seen in China’s rankings for premium battery electric SUVs priced from RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000 during the week of March 10-16, 2025.

As per the week’s rankings, the new Model Y’s sales are so far ahead, it would need a telescope to see its closest competitor.

Tesla China’s February Results

A look at the mainstream news cycle would show that Tesla China saw a notable drop in February. During the month, Tesla sold 30,688 vehicles wholesale, a 51.47% decline from January’s 63,238 and a 49.16% slide from the 60,365 that were sold wholesale in February 2024. 

It should be noted that the new Model Y only started local deliveries in the final days of February. This meant that for the majority of the month, Tesla China was mostly clearing out its inventory of Model Y classic units. This essentially resulted in Tesla China’s strongest seller being throttled for most of February. This will likely not be the case this March.

New Model Y’s March Comeback

With the new Model Y now being delivered to domestic customers, Tesla China’s new vehicle registrations have seen a notable rise. During the week of March 10-16, 2025, Tesla China saw 15,300 new vehicle registrations, the highest for the quarter. These figures were bolstered by the new Model Y, whose local sales reached 9,451 units during the week. 

With 9,451 units sold during the week ending March 16, the new Model Y became China’s best-selling premium electric SUV priced from RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000. This is a notable accomplishment for the new Model Y, especially since its closest competitor, the Zeekr 7X, was able to sell just 1,390 units during the same week. That’s just about 14% of the new Model Y’s sales.

Tesla China’s Potential Q1 Results

Considering that Tesla China did not start local deliveries of the new Model Y until late February, it would not be surprising if the electric vehicle maker’s first quarter delivery numbers show a year-over-year decline. A clearer view of the new Model Y’s overall effect on Tesla China’s local sales would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

Tesla tends to push the limit of automotive manufacturing processes. This was true for the Model Y and its front and rear megacasts, and it will likely also be true for the Cybercab, which is expected to start volume production sometime in 2026.

This was, at least, as per CEO Elon Musk during the company’s Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting.

Cybercab Potential

While the Model Y and Model 3 are already high-volume vehicles, Tesla expects to produce vastly more Cybercabs per year. During the Q3 2024 earnings call, the CEO explained that Tesla is aiming to produce at least 2 million Cybercabs annually. 

At 2 million units per year, Musk noted that the Cybercab will be produced in more than one factory. In 2026, however, expectations are high that the Cybercab will be produced in Gigafactory Texas. 

One Cybercab every 5 Seconds

Tesla has highlighted in its Q4 2024 Update letter that the Cybercab will be produced using the company’s revolutionary “unboxed” process, which is optimized for speed and efficiency. Musk highlighted this during the Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting, when he stated that the Cybercab’s lines don’t even look like a regular automotive production line. 

“We do want to scale up production to new heights obviously with the Cybercab. Cybercab is not just revolutionary car design. It’s also a revolutionary manufacturing process. So I guess we probably don’t talk about that enough, but if you’ve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesn’t look like a normal car manufacturing line. It looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line. 

“In fact, the line will move so fast that that actually people can’t even get close to it. I think it’ll be able to produce a car ultimately in less than 5 seconds. Can you imagine a car coming off the line in less than 5 seconds? That’s like, ‘Whoa.’ Which means casting’s got to happen fast. I mean we got to jam the the liquid metal in and cool it down real fast,” Musk said.

The Limits of Casting

Hitting an insane target such as one Cybercab every 5 seconds would require Tesla to completely rethink vehicle production. During the All-Hands meeting, Musk noted that Tesla would probably require even larger casting machines that would be capable of producing multiple components at once. Overall, the CEO seemed excited about the idea, as he noted that it would be fun to see just how big casting machines could be.

“I guess maybe we need to just get even bigger casting machines? Sure why not, you know, I’m down. 50,000 tons. Cause then we could do like five at a time or something. I’m trying to think like how do you scale castings, because you got liquid metal, metal’s got to cool, and you’ve got to automate getting all the bits and pieces off the casting so it’s usable?

“And that’s actually kind of how they do it in small-volume castings. They have a casting block that’ll make, you know, 100 Matchbox cars at a time. Maybe we can just make that real big. I mean, we have the Cathedral of Castings back there. So yeah, let’s do that. I mean, let’s see what is the limit of physics of how big can a casting machine be. Let’s find out. I’m down. Let’s have some fun here, push the limits of technology,” Musk stated.

Tesla paused its Full Self-Driving (FSD) free trial offer in China while awaiting regulatory approval.

Earlier this month, Tesla China announced it would offer customers a free FSD trial from March 17 until April 16, 2025. The limited-time offer would be available to Chinese customers whose cars were compatible with Tesla FSD’s hardware and software and had the newest version of navigation maps.

However, on Monday, March 24, Tesla received complaints stating that the company had temporarily paused its FSD free trial offer, reported Reuters.

“All parties are actively advancing the relevant process, and we will push it to you as soon as it is ready. We are also looking forward to it, please wait patiently,” responded Tesla’s customer support on Weibo.

Tesla has not officially provided a reason for the pause. However, a few factors might have contributed to Tesla’s decision to pause its FSD free trial offer.

In February, China’s Industry Ministry issued new rules for autonomous driving that might have affected Tesla’s free trial FSD offer. The new rules state that over-the-air updates related to autonomous driving are subject to regulatory approval. The Industry Ministry’s new rules for autonomous driving updates would likely slow down the release of Tesla FSD and autonomous driving features from other companies in China as well.

Besides the new rules, Tesla FSD is still awaiting regulatory approval in China. Rising tensions between the United States and the Chinese governments might delay Tesla FSD’s approval.

“Then China, which is a gigantic market, we do have some challenges because they weren’t — they currently allow us to transfer training video outside of China. And then the US government won’t let us do training in China. So, we’re in a bit of a there. It’s like a quandary,” Musk commented during the last TSLA earnings call.

China’s strict data laws have led Tesla to find other ways to train FSD. Tesla is working with the Chinese tech company Baidu to help FSD learn and navigate the roads in China.