Investor's Corner
Tesla Model S Was World’s Best Selling EV in November
The Tesla Model S was the world’s best selling plug-in electric car in November. But worldwide, China’s BYD sold more electric vehicles than any other manufacturer. The electric car market is about to get very crowded and highly competitive in 2016 and beyond.
What better way to ring out the old year than to announce the Tesla Model S was the best selling plug-in electric car in the world in November? According to figures put together by InsideEVs, the Model S handily out performed its two closest rivals, the Kandi Panda EV and the BYD Tang. Sales of the Nissan LEAF have plummeted since the company announced it was introducing an extended range model in 2016 and an all new second generation car in 2017.
Based on what we know at this minute (Tesla’s fourth quarter sales will be announced on Monday, January 4) it appears the Model S is also the global sales leader for all of 2015. It sold about 600 more than the Nissan LEAF through the end of November and all reports are that December may be a record setting month for Tesla. Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdhry says the pace of activities at the Fremont factory is frantic as the company races to push as many cars out the door as possible before the end of the year.
All this good news should be tempered with a firm grasp of reality. 2016 will see many more new competitors for Tesla. On January 4 at 8 pm PST, Faraday Future will take the wraps off its new car, which it promises will make us rethink everything we know about cars. That’s a bold claim and the world is waiting to see if Faraday can back it up.
Google has just announced a partnership with Ford to build autonomous driving cars. It is also investing $4.5 billion to bring 13 new plug-in or electric cars to market in the next few years. Audi is readying its new Q6 Quattro e-tron for market, a car that will compete directly with the Model X for SUV customers. BMW and Volkswagen are rushing plug-in cars to market.
One company that is little known in the United States but which is destined to be a top player in the electric vehicle market is China’s BYD. It is offering electric vehicles in every category, from intercity and long distance buses to airport and seaport service vehicles, heavy trucks, and construction equipment. It operates a fleet of electric taxis in Chicago and is about to begin a similar service in New York City.
BYD is considering building manufacturing facilities for batteries and vehicles in the US soon. It already has a Bus & Coach Factory in Lawrence, California that will produce 300 electric buses this coming year. When all the models of electric cars that BYD builds are combined, it sold more EVs worldwide than any other manufacturer through the end of November.
Lerner-Lim, BYD’s director of eastern U.S. business told Electric Cars Report recently that fossil fuel vehicles will be steadily replaced by environmentally responsible solutions. “The time has come for electric vehicles, and BYD is ready to meet the growing demand,” he said. “It’s a very exciting opportunity to take technology that was developed in China—and leveraged and matured in large scale there—and adapt them to American standards, lifestyles and infrastructures.”
Tesla can claim to have jump started the electric car revolution, but it may have its hands full keeping ahead of the competition in the market it created.
Image Credit: InsideEVs
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
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Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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