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Tesla’s success ushers in a new era of electric flight

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Electric flight may not be as far away as we once thought. In the next decade, aircraft are set to see dramatic changes as companies both large and small work to bring fully electric and hybrid flight to market. Airlines, manufacturers, and startups all seem to be moving towards this goal (see below). The race is clearly on and it will change the way we think about flight.

Yet as it was for the introduction of electric vehicles, the first aircraft is short range and seat just a few passengers. Their applications today are limited but to think the industry will stay in this nascent stage would be a mistake. Successes in these small and short-range aircraft will translate forward into larger and longer-range aircraft. The companies that find success here will emerge as leaders in a new era of electric flight.

Companies working on electric flight

 

On the Market Today:

First, it’s important to appreciate that only recently have small electric powered aircraft gone from concepts to commercial use.

Pipistrel’s Alpha Electro is one of these all-electric aircraft. It’s meant primarily for pilot training and just received its airworthiness certification from the FAA in April 2018, becoming the first in the USA to do so. The Alpha Electro only seats two people and is good for an hour of flight plus reserves. That might not sound like much but it could be disruptive. Pipistrel says the aircraft cuts beginner pilot training costs by as much as 70% while producing zero emissions and low noise.

In China, the Ruixiang RX1E is a similar style trainer sold there commercially. They also have a new, longer-range model that was recently tested, the RX1E-A. With a two-hour flight time the new version doubles its previous capabilities. At this size of aircraft the technology is getting close to parity with comparable gasoline-powered aircraft, like the Cessna 162 which has a flight time of about three hours.

Full parity might be here sooner than you think. Coming small electric aircraft have better specs and more seating, with many nearly ready for certification (pictured below). Pipistrel has their Panthera (top right), which will hold four passengers and will come in options for combustion, hybrid, and all-electric powertrains. There’s also BYE Aerospace in Colorado, which has a four-seater in development and just completed the first test flight of the two-seater Sun Flyer 2 — it has a flight time of 3 hours. Ruixiang also announced they have a 4-seater aircraft in development. The other important consideration is that their initial costs appear to be comparable to combustion options as well.

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Pipistrel Alpha Electro (top left), Pipistrel Panthera (top right), Ruixiang RX1E-A (bottom left), BYE Aerospace Sunflyer 2 (bottom right)

Looking at these options, some will say that an electric aircraft is an isolated niche and for now, that’s mostly correct. These are small aircraft with limited applications. Yet when the Nissan Leaf and even the Tesla Roaster first came out many believed electric cars were a niche technology too. The range was too short, seating was too small, and costs were too high to realistically consider the technology going mainstream. Now we are in the midst of a market transformation, with automakers pouring billions into their EV programs and countries announcing they are phasing out combustion vehicles.

 

Market Transformation – Near-Term Preproduction:

The next major step for electric flight appears to be in small commuter aircraft. Aircraft that weigh less than 12,500 lbs, carry 5 to 20 passengers and travel up to 750 miles. In addition to regional commuter needs, they may also serve recreational and business purposes. If small aircraft are like the Tesla Roadster then these are like the Model S. They have more seats, longer range, and are made in higher volumes.

The use case of short range regional commuters is almost perfect for electrification. Much of their flight is spent just getting up to altitude, where cruising achieves the greatest efficiency. The time spent cruising however is relatively short and the result is that such regional flights are inherently less efficient than those over greater distances. On the plus side the high operating costs are a great opportunity for electrification. Consider that a turbine engine achieves an efficiency of around 55% at cruising, but on ascent that efficiency can drop by half (~25%). By comparison, an electric motor has efficiencies greater than 95%.

One of the companies working to electrify these regional aircraft is Wright Electric, based out of Los Angeles. They recently announced plans to bring to market a 9-seat electrified aircraft with a range of at least 340 miles. According to their website that would cover the distance of nearly 44% of all flights. The announcement is part of their new partnership with JetEx, a fixed-base operator based in Saudi Arabia with operations in over 30 countries. I recently spoke with Wright Electric’s CEO Jeff Engler about their coming aircraft and where he see’s the industry going. The first thing that surprised me is that their aircraft could be on the market very soon.

“We are certain that the first flight test will take place next year. It could be on the market in just over two years.” – Jeff Engler, CEO of Wright Electric

That means that sometime towards the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021 they could be in their air, operating with paying customers.

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Wright Electric / JetEx

 

Their aircraft is intended for intercity travel and recreational activities Jeff said, but it’s not the end goal. In fact, their approach may be familiar to fans of electric cars.

“Our plan is similar to the Tesla approach, in the sense that they started with the Roadster and then scaled up to larger more mass market vehicles.  Our first plane to market will be a premium aircraft meant to travel short distances with a small number of passengers… perfect for intercity flights and recreational activities like skydiving. This initial program is the springboard for development of larger longer-range aircraft”. – Jeff Engler, CEO of Wright Electric

In regards to the technology Jeff said they are developing the hybrid and all electric powertrains concurrently. He noted that battery advancements will dictate the transition to fully electric flight but in the interim, hybrid solutions will significantly reduce fuel costs, noise, and pollution. With restrained enthusiasm, he was cautiously optimistic about the coming advances in battery technology. Yet battery technology isn’t holding them up.

The beauty of hybrid options is that as batteries improve they can be seamlessly integrated into the design, allowing more of the flight to be electric. For their electric hybrid, Wright Electric likes to use the term “helper motor”. A helper motor can run hard during takeoff and ascent to help bring the aircraft up to altitude, thereby reducing the burden on the combustion engines, improving overall efficiency, and reducing fuel consumption. Once at altitude, the combustion engines can take over, where they operate most efficiently.

Even without being fully electric hybrid aircraft would have surprising benefits to fuel economy, pollution, and noise. Wright Electric has estimated the potential for reducing fuel use by nearly 2/3’s, while fellow electric aircraft startup Zunum Aero indicated 40% to 80% operating savings. Zunum Aero also noted a potential 70% reduction in community noise.

 

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More Regional Commuter Aircraft are Coming Too:

Wright electric isn’t the only one working in this space. Other startups are also pushing the industry forward and they’ve partnered with established manufacturers and airlines to help make it happen. It’s similar to the approach Tesla took early on by partnering with established companies like Daimler and Toyota, and even in their recent developments of the Semi.

Zunum Aero is another one of the leaders in the electric aircraft space, based out of the west coast near Seattle. They are developing a 12-seat hybrid-electric, with a targeted range of over 700 miles. First test flights are targeted for 2019 and commercial operation is planned for 2022 (pictured below). Their partners include Boeing and JetBlue and just last week JetSuite announced they would order up to 100 of Zunum’s hybrid aircraft.

Eviation Aircraft is an Israel based company and has great ambitions for their first aircraft named “Alice”. It will be a 9-seat 650 mile aircraft and most importantly “all-electric”. They are targeting brining it to market by 2021. Is all-electric flight on that scale possible by 2021? They’ve said the aircraft will use a 950 kWh battery and just recently signed Kokam as their battery supplier, so they seem to be serious. I hope they make it happen. Alice is gorgeous.

Zunum Aero (top), Eviation Aircraft (bottom)

 

Other Exciting Developments Coming Soon:

In the heavyweight division Airbus, Siemens, and Rolls-Royce have their own partnership, working together on their E-Fan X after the successful small electric E-Fan program. The E-Fan X will be a hybrid demonstrator aircraft based on the 100-seat BAe146. The first test flight is planned for 2020 and they are looking to bring a similarly sized hybrid aircraft to market sometime around 2030. Originally they were going to bring a small electric trainer based on the E-Fan to market in 2017 or 2018 but said the pace of development has set their ambitions upwards. There’s also Airbus’s subsidiary A3 which is working on a small all-electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.

E-Fan X

Vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are extremely interesting. They could be the biggest disrupters of all (covered in more detail in a follow up article, part 2). They too seem to be much closer than people think. For flying short distances they don’t actually need massive advancements in battery technology. Norway’s Avinor, their national aircraft operator, seems to indicate the mid 2020’s for practical operation.

Companies like Uber, Lilium, Kittyhawk, A3, and many more are developing electric aircraft capable of vertical takeoff and landing. They look more like flying cars than airplanes and that seems to be the point. These “air-taxis” are meant for hyper-local travel. Something you would hop onto downtown and take to get to across the city or to another nearby city. Lilium is a relatively new startup, founded in 2015, but has already made significant advancements in the space. They’ve already had their first full-scale test flight which is viewable below. Watching it lift off is almost magical.  They brought on former Ferrari designer Frank Stephenson to head their design program and raised $90M to proceed with further development.

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Lilium VTOL

 

Final Thoughts and Intro to Part 2

For fully electric flight a lot depends on batteries, but the technology is already finding applications in short-range, small aircraft. Increasing larger hybrid aircraft are also set to see their application in the real world in just a few years and will yield substantial benefits of their own. These moves should not be discounted. They are a prelude of what’s to come.

At this point, you may be wondering exactly what are the benefits of electric flight. That’s the focus of the second part of this article, coming out soon. They are substantial and will drive the industry forward with haste.

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As an engineer working to improve sustainability and energy use, I have a passion for renewables, research, and data analytics. I'm based out of Toronto Ontario and you can contact me on LinkedIn or Twitter.

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Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last

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Credit: Tesla

Update: 10/22 10:51a – Para 1 consumers changed to “customers” for accuracy.

Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by customers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.

During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.

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“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”

Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.

CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.

The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.

Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.

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Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.

Here’s where Earnings came in:

  • Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
  • Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
  • Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
  • Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected

Major Takeaways

Full Self-Driving (Supervised)

“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”

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Tesla Semi

“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”

SI Compute

“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”

Robotaxi

“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: TechOperator | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.

Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:

  • Total Revenues: $28.34B
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
  • Operating Margin: 2.5%
  • Operating Income: $721M
  • Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B

Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:

Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability

This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.

Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.

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Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress

The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.

Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.

Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for

Say Investor Questions

  1. How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
  2. When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
  3. When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
  4. What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
  5. Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?

The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.

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