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Tesla can reverse three-decade-old prophecy that predicted U.S. manufacturing fall: Morgan Stanley

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Tesla can reverse a three-decade-old prophecy from Carl Sagan, who said in 1995 that U.S. manufacturing would decline, according to a note for Morgan Stanley.

Sagan, an astronomer, said the U.S. would abandon manufacturing for service and information thirty years ago, but Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley believes Tesla has the ability to counter that point with its interesting position as an AI company, among other things.

Analysts led by Jonas released a note on Tuesday that said:

“The intersection of AI and the physical economy offers the potential to disprove Carl Sagan’s 1995 prophecy.”

Tesla has utilized AI in its factories to help scale the production of its electric vehicles and energy products. What’s interesting is manufacturing, which used to be one of the U.S.’s main trades across the country, has weakened due to some companies exporting manufacturing to other countries.

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Morgan Stanley says that this can change:

“Monumental capital flows must fund a new era of intelligent machines made in America.”

The way Tesla has prioritized using AI in its factories started long ago, but CEO Elon Musk admitted that the company was too reliant on it at one point. Now, Tesla collects millions of data points for AI purposes, including for its self-driving efforts and to bolster the performance of its Optimus bot.

Tesla has a lead in vision, language, and actuation (VLA) foundation models, which could pair well with the rapid advancements in AI. This creates the idea that Tesla has incredibly large shoes to fill.

Tesla invites high school seniors to its Manufacturing Development Program

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As other companies working on AI and robotics could also play a role, Tesla seems to hold the narrative that most of the advancements in these sectors will have to go through them.

With that being said, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Tesla’s prowess in various tech fields could be what the U.S. needs to reverse a lack of investment into domestic manufacturing efforts.

Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

BYD to overtake Tesla in BEV sales this 2025: Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint’s insights were shared by the market researcher on its official website.

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BYD-5-minute-ev-charging
(Credit: BYD)

Counterpoint Research has estimated that Chinese automaker BYD will be able to overtake American electric car maker Tesla in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales this 2025.

Counterpoint’s insights were shared by the market researcher on its official website.

The (Counter)Point

Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Passenger EV Forecast suggests that BYD will be capturing a 15.7% global market share this year. This is expected to be driven by scale, innovation, and strong backing from the Chinese government.

The market researcher highlighted a number of factors that could help BYD become the world’s premier BEV maker this year. These include the company’s 1,000-kW ultra-fast charging technology and 10C charging rate batteries, which exceed Tesla’s current Supercharger offerings.

“The system can deliver 400 km of range in just 5 minutes, setting a new industry benchmark, far outpacing Tesla’s Supercharger, which adds about 275 km in 10 minutes. This technological leap is expected to significantly ease consumer concerns around charging time and boost EV adoption by reducing charging anxiety,” Abhik Mukherjee, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, stated

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The Tesla Factor

Counterpoint argued that Tesla, in comparison, is confronting several challenges, from damaged public perception due to CEO Elon Musk’s politics to geopolitical tensions between the United States and key markets like China. The market researcher highlighted Tesla’s soft sales in Europe and other markets, though it did not seem to consider the company’s changeover to the new Model Y across its global factories in Q1 2025.

“CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla, and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company’s sales were hurt in Q1 2025. This is a big opportunity for BYD and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally,” Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee stated.

Not the First Forecast

As noted in a CNEV Post report, this is not the first time that Counterpoint has predicted that BYD will overtake Tesla’s BEV sales. Last July, the market researcher expected BYD to overtake Tesla in 2024 to become the world’s top BEV maker. Tesla still beat BYD’s BEV sales at the end of 2024, however, with the American EV maker delivering a total of 1,789,226 vehicles globally versus the Chinese automaker’s 1,764,992 units.

In Q1 2025, however, BYD does seem to have momentum. BYD sold 416,388 passenger BEVs in the first quarter. As per Tesla’s Q1 vehicle delivery and production report, the company was able to deliver a total of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025.

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Tesla bull Wedbush responds to Q1 deliveries: ‘A disaster on every metric’

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Credit: diagnosticdennis/Instagram and @smile__no via Tesla Owners of Santa Clarita Valley/X

Tesla bull Wedbush has responded to the company’s lackluster Q1 delivery figures, which were released on Wednesday morning in a new note from analyst Dan Ives.

Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a far cry from the Wall Street estimate of 352,000 and whisper numbers of roughly 350,000. At first glance, it seems to be a disaster, but Tesla said it lost “several weeks of production” in Q1 due to the ramp of the new Model Y at all four of its vehicle production factories.

Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025

This could be part of the reason that the company experienced a quarter of this performance, but there are also factors stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. government, which has created some pushback in various markets.

It’s tough to say how much of each issue caused this type of quarter, but Ives wrote in a note to investors that Wedbush could not look at this “with rose-colored glasses,” as the performance “was a disaster on every metric.”

Ives believes it is time for Musk to make a move:

“The Street and us knew a bad 1Q was coming but this was even worse than expected. The time has come for Musk….it’s a fork in the road moment. The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla. This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead.”

Interestingly, the stock dropped over 5 percent after the delivery report. It quickly rebounded 8 percent and is currently up over 5 percent on the day after a report from Politico stated that Musk and President Donald Trump have discussed the CEO stepping back from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Based on that, it seems that investors were looking for Musk to step back from his government duties and show more public attention to Tesla. Realistically, we do not know how much of his time is being devoted to Tesla and its EV initiative. However, it seems investors were ready to hear something along the lines of Musk being more involved and speaking openly about Tesla and its projects.

It’s not all bad. Ives still recognizes Tesla’s prowess with the rollout of robotaxi and Full Self-Driving and how much impact it could have moving forward:

“Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation…”

With that being said, he also wants Musk to balance responsibilities with DOGE and Tesla:

“BUT…Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.”

Tesla shares are trading at $283.01, up 5.42% at 1:57 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) shares date for “Company Update” and Q1 2025 earnings call

Tesla seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced the date for its upcoming first quarter 2025 earnings call. 

Interestingly enough, the company seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.

Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Call Date

As shared by Tesla in its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, the company would be holding its first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Similar to past earnings calls, the event will be livestreamed. An archived version of the session would also be shared on the company’s website.

Prior to the earnings call, Tesla will be releasing its Q1 2025 Update Letter. The Q1 2025 Update Letter will be released after markets close on April 22.

A Company Update

Tesla enthusiasts and TSLA bulls have observed that the electric vehicle maker adjusted its wording a bit in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As could be seen in the release, Tesla noted that it would also be holding a “Company Update” on April 22. This is the first time that such an event has been referenced by the electric vehicle maker with its quarterly earnings call.

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“In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” Tesla wrote in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. Tesla also referenced a “Company Update” in a post on its official X account.

Expectations are high that Tesla will discuss some of its highly anticipated projects during its Company Update. These may include, among other things, new affordable vehicles that were mentioned in the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Update Letter.

“Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” Tesla wrote.

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