Investor's Corner
Tesla’s strong August start confidently brings in reiterated support from Piper Sandler
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has experienced a positive August thus far, despite being only three days into the month. Just a week after Tesla reported positive earnings for Q2, Piper Sandler analysts Alex Potter and Winnie Dong are reiterating their support for the automaker’s stock, solidifying their belief that Tesla is primed to navigate competition in 2022 successfully.
The note, released on August 3rd, outlines Piper Sandler’s recent examination of the 10-Q filing Tesla submitted to the SEC. Following the 10-Q’s public release and synopsis last week, Piper Sandler said that “nothing fishy” pops out, and automotive margins were impressive past anyone’s scope of prediction. Additionally, Tesla stated in the document that it could recognize $1.3 billion in self-driving software within the next 12 months. Contributing to an already impressive gross margin that fueled Tesla’s eighth-consecutive profitable quarter, the analysts suggest that margin could exceed the mid 20’s.
The outlook for Tesla moving forward is strong, especially as the company has the most robust products, and battery electric vehicle adoption continues to rise in nearly every region worldwide. The note indicates that the span of 2022-2025 should be the strongest span for the adoption of EVs due to more manufacturers committing to the production of their initial electric models. The note indicates that Tesla is primed to navigate and accomplish increased vehicle production and delivery volume based on widespread EV adoption. “Tesla is still the driving force behind higher BEV penetration globally,” the note says. Tesla holds 67% of all BEV sales in the U.S. in 2021. The company ranks #2 in China, only trailing the Wuling-GM-SAIC conglomerate that produces the HongGuang Mini EV.
Sure ??$TSLA https://t.co/BfbBlsz3gK pic.twitter.com/TOYaNIAwzz
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) August 3, 2021
-->In Europe, Tesla ranks #2 as well, with 13% of EVs sold in the region. However, this is without the Model Y, Tesla’s most popular vehicle, which will be manufactured at the Giga Berlin production facility later this year. With the crossover SUV style being the most popular body style in Europe, the Model Y could help Tesla to displace Volkswagen as the current king of the BEV market in Europe, fueled by the ID.3 and ID.4.
Changes to Tesla’s 2021 Outlook
Due to lower deliveries, Piper Sandler took down their revenue estimates and modified delivery expectations. The analysts believe that Tesla will achieve 846,000 deliveries this year. With Tesla being close to halfway there after quarters of 184,800 and 201,250, delivery figures are likely to increase on a quarter-over-quarter basis. With Giga Berlin and Giga Texas expected to start production before the end of the year, 846,000 units is certainly a figure within reach if all goes according to plan.
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus becomes even more competitive in China
The note also identifies several “risks to achievement of price target and recommendation,” listing several things that could move Tesla’s price target downward. These are production delays, failure to meet customer expectations, defects and recalls, supply chain disruptions, and slow adoption of electric vehicles. While all realistic negatives, Tesla has done a good job of navigating through the global semiconductor shortage that has plagued most car companies globally. In its Q2 2021 Update Letter, Tesla said that it designed 19 different semiconductors and controllers to navigate through the shortages. Additionally, build quality and product builds have improved over the last several years, and the adoption of electric vehicles, while slow, is not something that seems to be a worry based on growing adoption numbers in some countries.
Piper Sandler maintains its Overweight rating and the $1,200 price target it has had on the stock since early this year.
-->At the time of writing, Tesla stock was trading at $708.38, down just over $1.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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