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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2021 earnings: What to expect

Tesla's Fremont Factory. (Credit: peekaystudio/Instagram)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its Q3 2021 Update Letter after markets close on Wednesday, October 20, 2021. Tesla seems on track to meet its goal of delivering 50% more vehicles compared to the previous year, especially since the company has been weathering the ongoing supply chain disruptions very well. 

Tesla’s Q3 2021 earnings come at a rather positive time for TSLA stock, which was at $864.27 as of October 19, 2021. So far, TSLA shares are up about 19.5% year-to-date (YTD) from where it ended last year at $707.67 per share. This is right in line with the S&P 500’s return of 19.1% YTD. That being said, TSLA shares have provided a total return of about 87.8% over the past year, far above the S&P 500’s total return of 28.4% over the same period.

With the company posting record deliveries of over 241,000 vehicles worldwide in the third quarter, here is what to expect when Tesla posts its Q3 2021 earnings on Wednesday. 

Earnings

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share. This is a notably higher estimate compared to the company’s performance in Q3 2020, when Tesla posted adjusted earnings of $0.76 per share. Estimize, which aggregates estimates from a variety of sources, is slightly more optimistic at $1.79 per share. 

Revenue

FactSet consensus estimates that Tesla would be posting revenue of $13.7 billion for the third quarter. In comparison, Tesla posted revenue of $8.77 billion in the third quarter of 2020. Estimize’s forecasts are a bit more optimistic once more at $13.9 billion in revenue. 

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Profitability

Wall Street currently expects Tesla’s profitability to drop in the third quarter, with gross profit margins projected to dip below 24%. In comparison, Tesla’s gross profit margins were above 24% in Q2 2021. While these estimates seem conservative, Tesla may pleasantly surprise due to the increased production of Model 3 and Model Y in China. Since vehicles produced in Giga Shanghai have higher margins, the company’s profit margins could hold up. 

Possible TSLA Movement

Considering that Tesla has opted not to provide specific guidance for the third quarter, the decision of whether the company crushed, met, or fell below expectations would likely rely on how specific analysts would interpret the Q3 2021 results. As such, it may be best for shareholders to expect little or even negative movement in TSLA stock, similar to previous profitable quarters

Tesla will post its Q3 2021 Update Letter after markets close on Wednesday, October 20, 2021. Tesla management, which may or may not include CEO Elon Musk, would then hold a live Q&A at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the company’s financial and business results, as well as its outlook.

Disclaimer: I am long TSLA

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla stock rebounds and Tim Walz backtracks: ‘I was making a joke’

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Credit: @TeslaFrenzy/X

Tesla stock rebounded over 20 percent in the past five trading days, and, coincidentally, the boost came just after Tim Walz said he gets a boost from watching the automaker’s shares fall.

Although Walz’s pushback against Tesla stock mostly comes from his evident distaste for CEO Elon Musk, who has joined President Donald Trump’s team as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), it seems he might not have realized the EV maker’s shares make up a portion of his state’s pension fund.

This was something Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary mentioned last week after Walz’s comments. However, now that Tesla shares are rising once again, Walz is backtracking by saying that his comment from last week was his attempt at humor.

Walz said:

“I have to be careful about being a smartass. I was making a joke. These people have no sense of humor.”

Tesla shares have rebounded nicely since a substantial drop so far this year.

Although the stock is still down about 28 percent this year, things are looking better for the company as it now shifts its focus to the release of several affordable models, the ramp of the new Model Y “Juniper,” the release of the Cybercab and Robotaxi platform in Texas and California, and other potential catalysts like the Optimus robot.

Tesla aiming to produce first “legion” of Optimus robots this 2025

Last week’s All-Hands meeting from Tesla was publicly broadcast on X and seemed to be the response many investors were hoping for as questions started to seep in regarding Musk’s commitment to the company.

While his attention seems to be on solving government spending and eliminating corruption, it is evident Musk is still paying attention to what is going on at Tesla.

Shares are up over 10 percent at 1:05 p.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $274.

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Shark Tank’s O’Leary roasts Tim Walz over Tesla stock hate session

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Shark Tank personality and legendary investor Kevin O’Leary roasted former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz over his comments regarding Tesla shares earlier this week.

Walz, a Minnesota Democrat, said that he recently added Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to his Apple Stocks app so he could watch shares fall as they have encountered plenty of resistance in 2025 so far. He said that anytime he needs a boost, he looks at Tesla shares, which are down 36 percent so far this year:

Walz, among many others, has been critical of Tesla and Elon Musk, especially as the CEO has helped eliminate excess government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

However, Kevin O’Leary, a legendary investor, showed up on CNN after Walz’s comments to give him a bit of a reality check. O’Leary essentially called Walz out of touch for what he said about Tesla shares, especially considering Tesla made up a good portion of the Minnesota Retirement Fund.

As of June 2024, the pension fund held 1.6 million shares of Tesla stock worth over $319.6 million:

O’Leary continued to slam Walz for his comments:

“That poor guy didn’t check his portfolio and his own pension plan for the state. It’s beyond stupid what he did. What’s the matter with that guy? He doesn’t check the well-being of his own constituents.”

He even called Walz “a bozo” for what he said.

Of course, Walz’s comments are expected considering Musk’s support for the Trump Administration, as the Tesla CEO was a major contributor to the 45th President’s campaign for his second term.

However, it seems extremely out of touch that Walz made these comments without realizing the drop was potentially hurting his fund. While we don’t know if the fund has sold its entire Tesla holdings since June, as a newer, more recent report has not been released yet, it seems unlikely the automaker’s shares are not still making up some portion of the fund.

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Tesla gets an upgrade on ‘upcoming material catalysts’

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tesla model y in white
(Source: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received an upgraded rating on its shares from Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who recently took a trip to Austin to visit the company’s data centers and production lines ahead of several high-profile product launches set for this year.

It was a bold move, especially considering Tesla shares are under immense pressure currently, fending off negative news regarding the company’s sentiment and potentially lower-than-expected delivery figures due to the launch of a new version of its most popular vehicle, the Model Y.

However, the bulls on Wall Street are still considering Tesla to be a safe play, especially considering its robust presence in various industries, including automotive, energy, and AI/Robotics.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note that, during a recent visit to Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the production line at Gigafactory Texas, it was clear there is a lot of potential and runway for Tesla in 2025:

“On 3/18, we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin, followed by CA later in 2025). With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YRD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts. Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged. Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Catalysts.”

Sheppard went on to mention the catalysts, which he believes are the Robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, along with the continued rollout of Full Self-Driving in China, the eventual rollout of FSD in Europe, and the introduction of the affordable models in the first half of this year, and those were just on the automotive side.

There are several others, including Optimus, growth in the energy division, and in the longer term, the Semi.

In terms of potential weaknesses, Sheppard expects the likely removal of the EV tax credit and some of its growth to be offset by tariffs as the two big things that stand in the way of even more growth for the company.

Tesla is up over 5 percent on Wednesday, trading at $236.86.

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