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Tesla’s next ‘big unveil’ after Model Y will be its battery growth story

The Tesla Semi visits Yandell Truckaway. (Photo: Arash Malek)

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Tesla’s 2020 is bound to be a historic year, for more reasons than initially expected. Unlike 2017 and 2019, which were marked by impressive product unveiling events for the Semi, next-gen Roadster, Model Y, and Cybertruck, 2020 is poised to be a year where Tesla simply optimizes its operations to such a point that the company becomes sustainably profitable.

Save for 2018, Tesla has adopted the practice of unveiling new vehicles and energy products in a steady stream. This will not be the case this year, since Elon Musk himself has noted following the Cybertruck’s unveiling event that Tesla will not be holding formal vehicle launches for a while. The Model S Plaid is expected to be rolled out later this year, but the vehicle’s launch could be similar to that of the Raven Model S and X — subtle and simple.

Unlike previous years, Tesla will likely not be focusing too much on the rollout of an upcoming vehicle after initial Model Y deliveries are conducted. With the all-electric crossover being manufactured and delivered to customers, Tesla will likely end up focusing its resources on strengthening its core technology, particularly its batteries. This will partly be due to the arrival of three vehicles that are set to be released soon: the Tesla Semi, the next-gen Roadster, and the Cybertruck.

Part of the reason behind the Model Y’s quicker than expected production ramp is due to the vehicle’s similarity to the Model 3. The two midsize EVs share 75% of their parts, which meant that their production process is not too different from each other. Tesla learned a hard lesson with the Model X and the Model S by over-designing the SUV and making it far too different compared to its sedan sibling, which resulted in massive production delays. This lesson appears to have been learned and adopted for the Model Y ramp.

The Cybertruck in off-road conditions. (Photo: humdinger_3d/Instagram)

But Tesla’s next three vehicles are not quite as simple as the Model Y in terms of their battery tech and production processes. While the Model Y will likely use the same battery packs as its Model 3 sibling, the Semi, Cybertruck, and new Roadster do not. In fact, due to their specs and features, each of these new vehicles will likely be equipped with batteries that hold Tesla’s best and latest innovations, and they be built on platforms that are new and specifically designed for each vehicle.

The Semi, for example, is a Class 8 long-hauler that has a range of 300-500 miles per charge. Its capability to haul 80,000 pounds of weight on the road is no joke, and the vehicle’s near-sports car performance suggests that the Semi requires a very large battery pack. Tesla has not revealed the size of the batteries in the two Semi prototypes that are undergoing real-world testing today, but speculations from the EV community go as high as 1 MWh due to the truck’s weight. With better battery efficiency, optimized software, and higher energy density in its cells, Tesla may be able to achieve the Semi’s long-range targets without necessarily using as many batteries as a small fleet of Model 3s.

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The Cybertruck is not as large as the Semi, but it seems to require some notable battery improvements as well due to its price and specs. A top-tier Cybertruck costs below $70,000, and for that price, Tesla is offering over 500 miles of range per charge. Considering that the all-electric pickup truck is not exactly as sleek as the Model S in terms of aerodynamics, achieving such a range will likely require the all-electric pickup to have a pretty hefty battery. Batteries are usually considered as one of the most expensive parts of an EV, so it would be interesting to see just how low Tesla can push its battery prices down to make a behemoth of an EV go over 500 miles at a sub-$70,000 price.

Tesla’s design team with the next-generation Roadster. (Credit: Tesla)

The next-gen Roadster may only be seeing a production rate of about 10,000 per year, according to Elon Musk, but the vehicle still requires improvements in its batteries to become a definitive “hardcore smackdown to gasoline cars.” This is because the Roadster was announced with a 200-kWh battery pack that provides 620 miles of range. Tesla was at a different place when it announced the next-gen Roadster’s specs. Hence, it would not be a stretch to speculate that the production version of the all-electric supercar will either have a slightly smaller but more energy-dense battery that still provides 620 miles of range, or a 200 kWh battery pack that offers far beyond 1,000 km in one charge.

Tesla’s growth story is usually tied to the company’s release of one best-selling electric vehicle after another. But this year, after the Model Y, Tesla’s growth story will become more of a battery-driven narrative. The company’s battery tech will ultimately determine whether or not the Semi, Cybertruck, and new Roadster will be a success. But if Tesla’s batteries are up for the task, the company’s disruption of the auto industry will likely end up accelerating even more.

What’s pretty interesting to note is that all these potential battery-related breakthroughs also apply towards Tesla’s Energy business, which is rarely even considered by Wall Street when analysts evaluate the company. Every battery-related milestone that is rolled out to the company’s vehicles is also introduced to its energy storage devices. With this in mind, it is not too farfetched to speculate that this year may also end up becoming a renaissance of sorts for Tesla Energy. Part of this push could involve the introduction of slightly smaller but more energy-dense residential batteries and a line of cheaper energy storage units that are just as good as the company’s current products.

This sounds like another disruption in the making.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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xAI Colossus pollution concerns in Memphis continue

NAACP & SELC push back against xAI Colossus supercomputer. City tests say air is safe — but activists aren’t convinced.

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(Credit: xAI)

Politicians in Memphis continue to debate about the pollution concerns arising from the xAI Colossus supercomputer.

The NAACP and the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) have already expressed interest in filing a lawsuit against xAI over concerns related to air pollution stemming from its gas-powered turbines. Environmental groups have now raised concerns about water pollutants.

On Tuesday, Memphis released third-party air quality test results from June 13 and 16. The tests were conducted in downtown Memphis, Whitehaven, and Boxtown, two miles from xAI’s site. The city claimed levels of 10 pollutants tested were safe.

However, SELC–which is representing the NAACP in a potential lawsuit against xAI–criticized the omission of a key pollutant called ozone from the air quality tests. SELC also noted that monitors were placed against buildings, contrary to EPA guidance, stating air sensors should be “at least six feet above ground level, rooftop, or other objects and away from obstructions, vegetation, or emissions sources that would interfere with the measurement.”

Local opposition intensified, with State Representative Justin J. Pearson asserting: “I stand firm that nothing matters if you cannot breathe clean air, drink clean water, and plant in clean soil.”

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On Wednesday, concerns shifted to the Memphis aquifer, as the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation held a virtual meeting on xAI’s wastewater facility.

Activist Pamela Moses criticized xAI. “They are not coming here to uplift or invest in our community. They are here to exploit it. This a distressed and a historically neglected area, and instead of bringing opportunity, Colossal is bringing pollution…secrecy and broken promises,” she said.

xAI’s $80 million Grey Water facility aims to mitigate water concerns. The Colossus Water Recycle Facility, a collaboration between the Tennessee Valley Authority and Nucor Steel, aims to alleviate the strain on the aquifer.

“This project is a game changer in terms of it saving about 4.7 billion gallons of water projected, and about 4.7 billion gallons will remain in the aquifer every year,” said Bobby White of the Greater Memphis Chamber.

As xAI’s Memphis supercomputer continues to be the center of debates, the tension between economic benefits and environmental justice remains unresolved. With ongoing scrutiny and potential legal action, xAI’s efforts to address pollution and water concerns will shape its role in Memphis’ future.

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Tesla Robotaxi’s biggest challenge seems to be this one thing

That big bright thing in the sky might be Tesla’s biggest challenge in terms of Robotaxi.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi launched just a few days ago to a limited number of riders in Austin, Texas, but its biggest challenge seems to be how the automaker will figure out one thing: the Sun.

Among the company’s unique strategies, its emphasis on using cameras for self-driving is perhaps the most interesting. No other company has adopted the same strategy, as others have relied on cameras with either sensors or LiDAR rigs to accomplish their self-driving deployments.

Tesla, on the other hand, has called LiDAR unnecessary. CEO Elon Musk once called it “a fool’s errand,” stating it was not needed to build an effective self-driving fleet of vehicles.

Musk compared cameras to eyes. Humans don’t need sensors or LiDAR to operate vehicles on the road, so why should cars? This brought up some questions, especially regarding sun glare. Musk said that Tesla would use direct photon counting to see directly into brigt sunlight or even in the darkest conditions at night.

His quote during a recent earnings call was:

“Actually, it does not blind the camera. We use an approach which is direct photon count. When you see a processed image, so the image that goes from the sort of photon counter — the silicon photon counter — that then goes through a digital signal processor or image signal processor, that’s normally what happens. And then the image that you see looks all washed out, because if you point the camera at the sun, the post-processing of the photon counting washes things out.”
So far, this strategy has yielded mixed results. We have seen examples of both:

The Good

We’ve had a handful of people state that they have had no issue using the Robotaxi when it is driving into direct sunlight.

There are plenty of examples:

The Bad

The Verdict

This is obviously a weird case, and it seems that this could be one of the challenges Tesla will face with the deployment of Robotaxi.

While it will get figured out, this is something that could ultimately push back Tesla’s goal of having no safety monitor in the vehicles. However, the instance will be learned and used to improve in the future through its Neural Nets.

The first intervention was captured yesterday, requiring the Tesla safety monitor to stop the vehicle manually on the car’s touchscreen.

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Tesla owners take stand as Stockholm insists on blocking FSD tests

Despite the Tesla owners’ efforts, city officials appear unwilling to budge.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla owners in Sweden are taking it upon themselves to lobby for the approval of FSD-style tests in the City of Stockholm. The owners’ efforts come amidst city officials’ continued refusal to allow Tesla to test its autonomous driving system in the capital.

In open letters and social media posts, Tesla owners have urged Stockholm to reconsider its stance, pointing to broader support for FSD trials across Europe. But despite their efforts, city officials appear unwilling to budge, reinforcing the capital’s hardline stance on the Elon Musk-led EV maker.

Public support shows brand loyalty

A group of Swedish Tesla owners recently sent an open letter to Stockholm leaders. Among them is Alexander Kristensen, who has written a letter to officials urging them to allow Tesla to test FSD in the region.

“Members of the Traffic Committee are politically appointed by the Stockholm City Council, whose mandate is determined by the popular vote. Your stance—continuing to block a conditional pilot of FSD— is thus a political decision and fully subject to the electorate’s judgment in the next municipal election.

“When the City prevents tests that could validate and refine the technology locally, it is perceived as hampering life-saving innovation,” the Tesla owners wrote.

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The Swedish Transport Administration issued a response, acknowledging the Tesla owners’ feedback. The Transport Administration noted that it could proceed to grant a permit for Tesla to test FSD, but the company would still have to secure approval from local governments where the FSD-style tests will be conducted.

Stockholm remains firm

Despite this, Stockholm doubled down shortly after, stating that Tesla’s FSD software remains prohibited on city roads.

“Thank you for your comments and for taking an interest in traffic issues concerning the City of Stockholm. As previously stated, the City’s assessment of the current application remains unchanged and our position is set out in the opinion,” the City of Stockhom wrote.

In light of the city’s response, some Tesla owners have vowed to campaign against current officials in the next election.

The push for FSD testing comes as Tesla faces ongoing challenges in Sweden, including a labor dispute with unions over collective bargaining agreements. Since late 2023, the conflict has resulted in strikes, blockades, and legal battles, none of which appear close to resolution. Despite regulatory and labor headwinds, Tesla continues to expand in the region, including the recent installation of Superchargers in union-backed areas.

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