Investor's Corner
Tesla Cybertruck, Semi timing crucial for stock to avoid sell-off: Piper Sandler
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) faces a potential sell-off from investors if Cybertruck and Semi production timelines are not narrowed down shortly, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in a new note.
“TSLA remains one of our highest-conviction long ideas, but even better entry points could lie ahead,” Potter wrote, along with fellow Piper Sandler analyst Winnie Dong. The unpredictability of Tesla’s production ramp leads Potter and Dong to believe that sell-offs could occur, especially as the electric truck market continues to become a more prominent subject matter in the EV sector moving forward.
Piper Sandler’s note on Tesla’s Electric Truck Day ??
“one of our highest-conviction long ideas”$TSLA pic.twitter.com/p8vxHDZ6sf
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) March 24, 2021
-->Tesla has several competitors in the field of electric trucks, and it’s not just passenger vehicles. While the Cybertruck will encounter competition from Ford, Rivian, Arrival, Xos, and others, the Semi also has several established companies like Volvo, Freightliner, and PACCAR. Breaking into the market first is a big point for all of these companies, but producing the most effective and efficient electric truck also carries significant weight in the long-term spectrum.
Timing is going to be a crucial part of Tesla’s gameplan moving forward. While the company has been relatively accurate with software timeframes over the past several years, vehicle production is a different story. Most recently, Tesla announced the new Model S Refresh, and Elon Musk said the car would be delivered in February. This has yet to happen, though, as Tesla continues to refine details to make the Plaid Model S the best car on Earth. “There’s nothing else even close,” Musk said.
These production delays have also affected the Semi. Last year, Musk told employees to gear up for a volume push of the Semi, only to delay the project once again because of battery constraints, an issue that plagues electric automakers globally. The Semi will utilize a massive number of cells, and Tesla cannot sacrifice the production of its mass-market EVs to get the Semi project up and running. However, timeframes need to be established, and the uncertainty has Piper Sandler convinced that the stock could experience a sell-off from some investors.
“Temporary sell-offs seem likely,” Potter wrote, “because over the next 6+ months, there is a high degree of unpredictability in Tesla’s production ramp. This is particularly true for the company’s new plants in Germany and Texas, the latter of which will be producing both battery- and truck-related products using novel manufacturing techniques.”
Even the Cybertruck’s timeframe is up in the air at this point, all because of the massive Giga Texas construction project that is going on in Austin. Like Potter wrote, the Texas factory is where the Cybertruck will be manufactured. The factory obviously needs to be completed before production can begin, and the timeframe seems to be fluid at this point in time.
-->Tesla’s Cybertruck factory is starting to look a bit “cyberpunk” itself
Tesla’s website still indicates that the Dual Motor and Tri-Motor variants are “expected in late 2021.” Musk did indicate on a recent episode of the Joe Rogan Experience podcast that this is still the plan, but it will happen “if we get lucky.”
Musk said to Rogan:
“If we get lucky, we’ll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.”
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
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