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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors get a “window of opportunity” amid Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover

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On Monday, November 14, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock closed at $190.95, 2.56% down compared to the previous close at $195.97. However, Morgan Stanley believes the decline in TSLA’s share price over the past few weeks may not be all bad for Tesla investors.

Tesla stock has been dropping lately. Some investors and financial experts are pinning Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover as the cause of TSLA’s recent decrease. 

Last Wednesday, Tesla shares dropped significantly, closing at $177.59, the lowest since November 2020. At the time, Elon Musk disclosed the sale of about $4 billion worth of TSLA stock. In an all-hands meeting with Twitter the following day, Musk explained that he sold Tesla shares to “save” Twitter. 

Throughout his quest to take over Twitter, Elon Musk has offloaded TSLA shares multiple times this year. In April, He sold about $8.5 billion worth of Tesla shares, and then another $6.9 billion shares in August. 

Morgan Stanley’s Tesla Take

Morgan Stanley has a $150 bear case for Tesla. However, the investment bank believes Tesla’s recent price drop is a “window of opportunity opening for prospective Tesla investors.” Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla sentiment and decelerating EV demand might challenge its bear case before the end of 2022.

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Tesla recently cut its prices in China. Morgan Stanley predicts that the company would also slash car prices in Germany as Giga Berlin reaches 5,000 vehicle production per week. It also expects Tesla to cut prices in the United States in the first half of 2023. The price cuts may be an opportunity for prospective Tesla customers.

Twitter and Tesla

In a recent note to investors, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Adam Jonas wrote that investors are concerned about the effects “consumer sentiment” might have on Tesla’s business in the near term. Jonas wrote that consumer sentiments could materialize in several areas, namely:

  • Consumer sentiment/demand.
  • Commercial partnerships.
  • Government relationships and support.
  • Investor sentiment and capital markets participation

“Controversy creates uncertainty…In our opinion, one of the main drivers of Tesla shares to ‘tera-cap’ status in recent years was the ability for investors to confidently model the economic outlook for the company’s core EV and energy storage businesses supported by a favorable economic backdrop. In recent weeks, this confidence has been tested, and we believe will continue to be tested through year-end,” wrote Jonas.

Twitter Controversy

Twitter has become a controversial topic in recent weeks. Some Tesla investors have reservations about how Musk plans to monetize the platform and use it as a space for free speech

Consumer and Investor Sentiment

MS believes some customers and investors might want to distance themselves from any Twitter controversy. Elon Musk’s involvement in Twitter has led some to question their ties to Tesla, although the two companies are entirely separate. 

Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla still needs support from investors to surpass its current market cap. As of writing, Tesla’s market cap stands at $602.97 billion.

Commercial Partnerships

Tesla prides itself as a self-reliant, vertically integrated company. But it still relies on commercial partnerships with companies that might want to distance themselves from controversy. 

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Although, usually, association with Tesla has proven beneficial to other companies. For instance, mining companies who have struck deals with Tesla often also strike deals with other automakers.

Government Support

Elon Musk’s recent activity on Twitter and changes to the platform have also created some tension between the Tesla CEO and some political leaders in the United States. 

Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden commented that Musk’s relationships with other nations needed observation. Musk’s ties to other countries are heavily related to Tesla’s operations, considering the company has gigafactories in China and Germany. 

Musk’s ties to other nations and his political opinions on Twitter have contributed to the controversy surrounding Musk, the platform, and, in extension, Tesla.

Disclosure: I am long TSLA.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s comfort level taking risks makes the stock a ‘must own,’ firm says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

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Credit: Tesla Mania

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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