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Analyst: Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla pay deal modest against robot market potential

Jonas highlighted Tesla’s longer-term ambitions in robotics as a key factor in his assessment.

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Credit: Tesla

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, one of Wall Street’s most ardent Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls today, has described Elon Musk’s newly proposed $1 trillion performance-based compensation package as a “good deal” for investors. 

In a note shared this week, Jonas argued that the package helps align the interests of Musk and Tesla’s minority shareholders, despite its shockingly high headline number.

Future market opportunities

Jonas highlighted Tesla’s longer-term ambitions in robotics as a key factor in his assessment. “Yes, a trillion bucks is a big number, but (it) is rather modest compared to the size of the market opportunity,” Jonas wrote. He added that the humanoid robot market could ultimately surpass the size of today’s global labor market “by a significant multiple.”

“We have entertained scenarios where the humanoid robot market can exceed the size of today’s global labor market… by a significant multiple,” Jonas wrote, as shared on X by Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt.

The analyst likened the arrival of AI-powered robotics to the transformative effect of electricity, noting that “contemplating future global GDP before AI robots is like contemplating global GDP before electricity.” The Morgan Stanley analyst’s insights align with the idea that as much as 80% of Tesla’s future valuation could be tied to its Optimus humanoid robot program.

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Elon Musk’s pay package

Tesla’s board has tied Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package to some of the most ambitious targets in corporate history. The 2025 CEO Performance Award requires the automaker’s valuation to soar from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion over the next decade, a level that would make Tesla the most valuable company in existence.

The plan also demands a leap in Tesla’s operating profit, from $17 billion in 2024 to $400 billion annually. It also ties the CEO’s compensation to a number of product milestones, including the delivery of 20 million vehicles in total, 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million Robotaxis in operation. Tesla’s board emphasized that Musk’s leadership was fundamental to achieving such ambitious goals, with Chair Robyn Denholm noting the award would align the CEO’s incentives with long-term shareholder value.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX shares targets and tentative launch date for Starship Flight 11

As with all SpaceX tests, the estimated timeline for Starship Flight 11 remains subject to change based on conditions and readiness.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is targeting Monday, October 13, for the eleventh test flight of its Starship launch system. The launch window is expected to open at 6:15 p.m. CT. 

Similar to past Starship missions, a live webcast will begin about 30 minutes before launch on SpaceX’s website, X account, and X TV app. As with all SpaceX tests, the estimated timeline for Starship Flight 11 remains subject to change based on conditions and readiness.

Super Heavy booster landing test

The upcoming mission will build on the data gathered from Starship’s tenth test flight, focusing on booster performance and upper-stage capabilities. The Super Heavy booster, previously flown on Flight 8, will launch with 24 flight-proven Raptor engines, according to SpaceX in a blog post on its official website. Its primary objective is to validate a new landing burn engine configuration designed for the next generation of Super Heavy.

Instead of returning to Starbase, the Super Heavy booster will follow a trajectory toward the Gulf of America. During descent, it will ignite 13 engines before transitioning to a five-engine divert phase and then completing the landing burn with three central engines, entering a full hover while still above the ocean surface, followed by shutdown and dropping into the Gulf of America.

Starship upper-stage experiments

The Starship upper stage for Flight 11 will carry out a series of in-space demonstrations, including the deployment of eight Starlink simulators that are comparable in size to next-generation Starlink satellites. These payloads will reenter and burn up during descent. A planned Raptor engine relight in orbit will also provide valuable test data.

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To evaluate the upper stage’s resilience during reentry, SpaceX engineers have intentionally removed heat shield tiles from select areas to stress-test Starship’s thermal protection system. The vehicle will attempt new maneuvers during descent, including a banking profile and subsonic guidance algorithms intended to simulate future return-to-launch-site missions. The upper stage will ultimately target a splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX has already posted a link to the livestream for Starship Flight 11: 

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“We Pay for Performance”: Tesla drops details of Elon Musk’s new pay plan on X

Musk’s pay package will be voted on by Tesla shareholders at the annual meeting of stockholders this coming November 6.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has published a video highlighting Elon Musk’s new CEO Performance Award, which is expected to take the company all the way to a market cap of $8.5 trillion. 

Musk’s pay package will be voted on by Tesla shareholders at the company’s upcoming annual meeting of stockholders this coming November 6.

Tesla’s proposal

In its post, Tesla noted that the company pays for outstanding performance, not promises. Tesla noted that Musk’s previous pay plan, which has been fully accomplished, was intended to deliver billions to TSLA shareholders. This time around, the company is looking to deliver trillions to stockholders.

“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.

“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X. 

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Ambitious targets

The package calls for Elon Musk to grow Tesla’s market capitalization from its current $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion within the next decade. At that size, Tesla would surpass every other public company in history. For context, Nvidia, today’s most valuable company, is worth about $4.4 trillion, while Microsoft and Apple follow at $3.8 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively. Even Saudi Aramco, long among the world’s giants, holds a valuation of just $1.6 trillion.

To hit the $8.5 trillion target, Tesla must more than practically double Nvidia’s present value and expand nearly eightfold from its current scale. The plan also requires operating profit to soar from $17 billion in 2024 to $400 billion annually, while meeting ambitious product milestones: 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million Robotaxis. 

If achieved, Musk’s stake in TSLA would rise to 25%, with compensation topping $900 billion in Tesla stock. In a post on X, Musk explained that his priority with is new compensation plan is not about gathering wealth, it was about securing influence. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Tesla pleads with Trump White House not to bail on crucial climate standards

It suggested that abandoning the standards “would give a pass to engine and vehicle manufacturers for all measurement, control, and reporting of GHG emissions for any highway engine and vehicle.”

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President Donald J. Trump purchases a Tesla on the South Lawn, Tuesday, March 11, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Credit: Tesla

Tesla pleaded with the Trump White House not to bail on crucial climate standards that would help keep vehicle emissions in check, warning of human dangers related to greenhouse gases.

Tesla wrote that the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recent proposal to roll back standards for tailpipe emissions would be a major setback in the fight to limit damage to the climate.

It suggested that abandoning the standards “would give a pass to engine and vehicle manufacturers for all measurement, control, and reporting of GHG emissions for any highway engine and vehicle,” Reuters said in its report.

Trump has been a critic of environmental standards, and earlier this week, during a speech with the U.N., said that climate change was “the greatest con-job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion.”

Tesla’s tone on the potential rollback of climate standards was countered by that of General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, and “nearly all other major automakers,” who requested the EPA delay the emissions goals.

Tesla stands to gain a lot from the emissions push. Other automakers simply cannot compete with Tesla’s tech, charging infrastructure, or self-driving program, and they have a significant advantage as they started developing EV tech more than a decade ago.

Legacy automakers, on the other hand, have continued to develop EVs, but have not managed to manufacture anything of extreme interest to most car buyers.

Individually, they have not dented Tesla’s market share in the U.S., but collectively, because of more offerings and improvements to their lineups, they have managed to take some of Tesla’s sales away.

It’s taken all of them to truly compete with Tesla in the big picture. However, the other companies still need to rely on combustion engine vehicles, at least in the short term, to generate revenue.

Since these companies are not meeting emissions targets, they are required to pay Tesla for compliance credits, which the company generated $2.8 billion in revenue from last year.

GM to pay $145.8 million fee for excess emissions

Tesla said in its letter that the EPA’s consideration of rolling back standards is destructive to the innovation of the automotive industry:

“[It] undermines the stability of this program, diminishes the value of performance-based incentives that electric vehicle manufacturers accrue under the standards, and creates an uneven playing field – reducing the inducement for investment in vehicle innovation.”

With President Trump’s skepticism on the issue of vehicle emissions, things don’t look like they will go in Tesla’s favor with this particular request.

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