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SpaceX prepares for space station supply mission as secret Zuma launch postponed
Zuma patiently awaits a new launch date
Just shy of two weeks ago, SpaceX announced the discovery of unspecified problems with a Falcon 9 payload fairing during routine quality assurance (QA) testing at the company’s Hawthorne, CA factory. The launch of Zuma, a deeply mysterious satellite with no clear manufacturer or customer, was subsequently delayed indefinitely, pending the results of an internal investigation into the aforementioned fairing defects.
Several days after SpaceX’s Zuma announcement, the Falcon 9 booster, second stage, and payload (often referred to as the “stack”) were rolled back into the pad facilities at LC-39A, verifying that a delay of at least several days would follow. This delay was both confirmed and denied in a confusing manner, with the Cape’s 45th Space Wing appearing to suggest that Zuma would not be impacted by a preplanned range closure in late November, although journalist Irene Klotz reported that Zuma was delayed until December, when maintenance was scheduled to end.
SpaceX’s mysterious Zuma payload and Falcon 9 1043 seen before stormy Florida skies. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)
All things considered, the month of November has been an unusually chaotic period for SpaceX and the Space Coast, and the chaos has almost certainly been exacerbated by the intense secrecy surrounding Zuma. As the sum total of publicly available information, these details indicate that SpaceX employees discovered a systemic defect or defects in recently-manufactured fairings, serious enough to indefinitely ground the company’s commercial launches. However, SpaceX recently opened press registration for the Iridium-4 mission, still apparently scheduled for launch on December 22 and further corroborated by the CEO of Iridium Communications, hinting that that mission’s fairing either predates the scope of the fairing investigation, or that the investigation and fairing groundings have arisen out of an abundance of caution above all else.
A Dragon stretches its wings
More importantly and perhaps more logically, SpaceX’s next Cargo Dragon mission to the International Space Station – CRS-13 – has not been directly impacted by fairing problems; Dragon missions do not require fairings. The CRS-13 mission, currently aiming for a static fire on November 29 and launch on December 4, will be exceptional for a number of equally thrilling reasons. In no particular order: CRS-13 will mark the first NASA-approved reuse of a Falcon 9’s first stage, in this case with the added aesthetic bonus that the Dragon will reach orbit aboard the same booster that launched CRS-11’s Dragon almost exactly six months prior, June 3 2017. Equally exciting, CRS-12 marked the final new Cargo Dragon launch, and CRS-13’s Dragon is a refurbished spacecraft, having previously flown the CRS-6 mission in late 2015.
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- The CRS-6 Cargo Dragon being mated to its Falcon 9 launch vehicle in 2015. (SpaceX)
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- This exact Dragon has been recovered from orbit, refurbished, and is now prepped and ready for another orbital mission on December 4th. (SpaceX)
Rather poetically, CRS-11 marked the first commercial reuse of an orbital spacecraft, and the booster that launched that mission, Falcon 9 1035, will now fly once more to lift the second-ever reused Dragon into orbit. If all goes as planned, SpaceX’s CRS-13 mission will arguably be the most-reused orbital-class mission in the history of spaceflight, with only the second stage and Dragon’s trunk being both new and expendable. Both the booster and Dragon likely required a fair amount of refurbishment, but if Elon Musk’s June 2017 statements remain accurate, SpaceX has probably progressed far along the reusability learning curve. Quoting Elon Musk and myself at the ISS R&D Conference in July 2017:
Musk said he expects the next Dragon reuse and all future reuses to save the SpaceX nearly 50% of the cost of manufacturing an entirely new spacecraft. Musk admitted that the first refurbishment of Dragon likely ended up costing as much or more than a new vehicle, but this is to be expected for the first attempt to reuse any sort of space hardware that must survive some form of reentry heating and saltwater immersion.
Indeed, CRS-13 will in fact be “the next Dragon reuse” after CRS-11’s success. If the spacecraft’s refurbishment does manage save SpaceX anywhere near 50% of the cost of manufacture, the mission will be an extraordinary accomplishment, above and beyond the already intense difficulty of refurbishing and reflying a several-ton (~4000kg empty) orbital spacecraft.
LC-40 pad repairs near completion
Even after the reuse of both the Dragon and Falcon 9 booster, CRS-13 will lay host to yet another milestone for SpaceX as the first mission to launch from the newly repaired Launch Complex-40 (LC-40), after the pad suffered widespread damage from a Falcon 9 failure during preparations for the launch of Amos-6. Little is known on the specifics of the damage suffered, but repairs have taken no less than 14 months and at a minimum required the fabrication, assembly, and qualification of entirely new Ground Support Equipment (GSE).
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- Based on photos posted to social media, LC-40’s new TEL will be considerably different than the 39A’s white monolith, likely closer in form to the original it is to replace (seen here). (SpaceX)
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- The TEL seen at LC-39A in early 2017. (SpaceX)
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- LC-39A’s TEL and Falcon 9 seen before the launch of SES-11 in October 2017. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)
Under the umbrella of GSE are thousands of feet of precisely machined and welded piping and pumps, a new launch mount and transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) to carry Falcon 9 out of the integration facilities, the repair or complete removal and replacement of a huge volume of scalded concrete, and the repair or replacement of likely dozens or hundreds of other miscellaneous components destroyed in the intense fire that followed the Amos-6 incident. Nevertheless, as spotted on a social media platform by the author, the aforementioned TEL and launch mount were shown going vertical just a handful of days ago, further evidence that LC-40 is once again rapidly marching towards operational status.
The long-awaited reactivation and return to operations at LC-40 is itself arguably the most critical path ahead of Falcon Heavy’s inaugural launch, and modifications to the pad and TEL have restarted in light of Zuma’s indefinite delays, with SpaceX’s ever-productive and heroic ground crew taking advantage of extra down-time between launches. With Zuma now ~11 days past its scheduled launch date, the mission’s delay will likely result in additional delays to Falcon Heavy’s inaugural launch, which was reported to be aiming for ~December 29. This deep of a delay might also necessitate the transfer of Zuma’s launch from LC-39A to LC-40, depending on the customer’s flexibility and SpaceX’s own needs. Time will tell, and in the meantime, the mystery of Zuma and wondrous accomplishments of CRS-13 ought to sate the launch withdrawals of SpaceX fans for the time being.
News
Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has reached “near-Level 4” capabilities
While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities.
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng has offered fresh praise for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system after revisiting Silicon Valley more than a year after his first hands-on experience.
Following extended test drives of Tesla vehicles running the latest FSD software, He stated that the system has made major strides, reinforcing his view that Tesla’s approach to autonomy is indeed the proper path towards autonomy.
Tesla FSD closing in on Level 4 driving
During his visit, He test-drove a Tesla equipped with FSD V14.2. He also rode in a Tesla Robotaxi. Over roughly five hours of driving across Silicon Valley and San Francisco, He said both vehicles delivered consistent and reassuring performance, a notable improvement from his experience a year earlier.
According to He, Tesla’s FSD has evolved from a smooth Level 2 advanced driver assistance system into what he described as a “near-Level 4” experience in terms of capabilities. While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities. He also reiterated his belief that Tesla’s strategy of using the same autonomous software and hardware architecture across private vehicles and robotaxis is the right long-term approach, allowing users to bypass intermediate autonomy stages and move closer to Level 4 functionality.
He previously tested Tesla’s FSD V12.3.6 and Waymo vehicles in California in mid-2024, noting at the time that Waymo performed better in dense urban environments like San Francisco, while Tesla excelled in Silicon Valley and on highways.
Xpeng’s ambitious autonomy roadmap and internal challenge
The Silicon Valley visit also served as a benchmark for Xpeng’s own autonomy ambitions. He stated that Xpeng is looking to improve its VLA autonomous driving system to match the performance of Tesla’s FSD V14.2 within China by August 30, 2026. Xpeng is poised to release its VLA 2.0 smart driving software next quarter, though He cautioned that the initial version will not be able to match FSD V14.2’s capabilities, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
He also added a personal twist to the goal, publicly challenging Xpeng’s autonomous driving team. If the performance target is met by the 2026 deadline, the CEO stated that he will approve the creation of a Chinese-style cafeteria for Xpeng’s Silicon Valley team. If not, Liu Xianming, head of Xpeng’s autonomous driving unit, has pledged to run naked across the Golden Gate Bridge, He noted.
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has reached “near-Level 4” capabilities
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
