News
SpaceX Falcon 9 crushes next-gen ULA Vulcan rocket on cost in first competition
The United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket appears to have made it through what could be described as its first real competition with SpaceX and its Falcon 9 workhorse.
The US Space Force (or Air Force) awarded both rockets two launch contracts each on March 9th, marking the second award under “Phase 2” of a new National Security Space Launch (NSSL; formerly Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle or EELV) agreement. The culmination of a multi-year competition, NSSL Phase 2 calcified in late 2020 when the US military ultimately chose ULA and SpaceX as its primary launch providers for the better part of the next decade.
The final Phase 2 agreement followed Phase 1, in which the USAF committed up to $2.3 billion to assist Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, and ULA in their efforts to develop future military launch capabilities. SpaceX submitted a proposal but didn’t win funds. Even though the ULA-SpaceX dichotomy was already a more or less fixed outcome before the competition even began, the US military still managed to dole out almost $800 million to Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman before announcing that neither provider had been selected for Phase 2.
Notably, as part of Phase 1, ULA is on track to receive nearly $1 billion in USSF/USAF aid to develop its next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket and ensure that it meets all of the military’s exacting, unique requirements. SpaceX, on the other hand, received a sum total of $0 from that opaque slush fund to meet the exact same requirements as ULA.
For Phase 2, the US military arbitrarily split the roughly two-dozen launch contracts up for grabs into a 60/40 pile. Even more bizarrely, the USAF did everything in its power to prevent two of the three rockets it had just spent more than $1.7 billion to help develop from receiving any of those two or three-dozen available launch contracts – all but literally setting $800M of that investment on fire. Short of comical levels of blind ineptitude, verging on criminal negligence, the only possible explanation for the US military’s behavior with NSSL Phase 1 and Phase 2 is a no-holds-barred effort to guarantee that ULA and its Vulcan Centaur rocket would have zero real competition.
The arbitrary 60:40 split of the final Phase 2 contract ‘lot’ further supports that argument. A government agency objectively interested in securing the best possible value and redundancy for its taxpayer-provided money would logically exploit a $1.7B investment as much as possible instead of throwing two-thirds of its ultimate value in the trash. On its own, a block-buy scenario – even with a leading goal of selecting two providers – is fundamentally inferior to an open competition for each of the dozens of launch contracts at hand.
Further, selecting the block-buy option and failing to split those contracts 50:50 makes it even clearer that the USAF’s only steadfast NSSL Phase 2 goal was to guarantee ULA enough Vulcan launch contracts for the company to be comfortable and (most likely) not lose money on a rocket that has yet to demonstrate an ability to compete on the commercial launch market.
Amazingly, despite multiple handicaps in the form of a 60:40 contract split and what amounts to a $1B subsidy that explicitly disadvantages its only competitor, ULA’s Vulcan rocket still appears to be ~40% more expensive than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. In the latest round of NSSL Phase 2 contracts, seemingly the first in which ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket was selected, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 received two East Coast launch contracts worth slightly less than $160M, averaging out to less than $80M each.
Outfitted with four of a possible zero, two, four, or six strap-on solid rocket boosters (SRBs), Vulcan Centaur received two launch contracts for $224M – an average of $112M each. Assuming ULA wins exactly 60% (~15) of the Phase 2 launch contracts up for grabs and receives no more than $1 billion in USAF development funding through NSSL Phase 1, some $67 million will have to be added to the cost of each announced Vulcan launch contract to get a truly accurate picture. In the case of the rocket’s first two contracts, the real average cost of each Vulcan Centaur launch could thus be closer to $179M ($112M+$67M).
According to ULA CEO Tory Bruno, both Vulcan missions are to “high-energy orbits,” whereas a USAF official told Spaceflight Now that SpaceX’s two Falcon 9 contracts were to “lower-energy orbits.” In Vulcan’s defense, if Bruno’s “high-energy orbit” comment means a circular geostationary orbit (GEO) or a very heavy payload to an elliptical geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), it’s possible that SpaceX would have had to use Falcon Heavy to complete the same contracts. Against Falcon Heavy’s established institutional pricing and excluding ULA’s $1B Phase 1 subsidy, Vulcan Centaur is reasonably competitive.
Ultimately, even with several significant cards stacked against it, SpaceX appears likely to continue crushing entrenched competitors like ULA and Arianespace on cost while still offering performance and results equivalent to or better than even than their “next-generation” rockets.
Elon Musk
Tesla doubles down on Robotaxi launch date, putting a big bet on its timeline
Tesla continues to double down on its June goal to launch the Robotaxi ride-hailing platform.
Tesla has doubled down on its potential launch date for the Robotaxi ride-hailing platform, which will utilize the Cybercab and other vehicles in its lineup to offer driverless rides in Austin, Texas.
Tesla said earlier this year that it was in talks with the City of Austin to launch its first Robotaxi rides, and it planned to launch the platform in June.
This has been a widely discussed timeline in the community, with some confident in the company’s ability to offer it based on the progress of the Full Self-Driving suite.
However, others are skeptical of it based on Tesla’s history of meeting timelines, especially regarding its rollout of FSD.
Nevertheless, Tesla was asked when it would be able to offer Robotaxi rides and where, and it clearly is not backing down from that June date:
In Austin, 🔜
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 18, 2025
It is getting to a point where Tesla is showing incredible confidence regarding the rollout of the Robotaxi in June. We have not seen this kind of reiteration regarding the rollout of something regarding autonomy from Tesla at any point in the past.
CEO Elon Musk has even been increasingly confident that Tesla will meet its target. Earlier this week, he said the vehicles will be able to roll off production lines and drive themselves straight to a customer’s house:
Elon Musk continues to push optimistic goal for Tesla Full Self-Driving
There could be some discussion of an acceptable grace period, as the timeline for the Robotaxi rollout could still be considered a success, even if it were a month or two late. However, if it were pushed back further into 2025 or even 2026, skepticism regarding these timelines would continue to persist.
As of right now, it seems Tesla is extremely confident it will meet its goal.
Among the several companies that have had the opportunity to add Tesla Semi all-electric Class 8 trucks to their fleets earlier than others, the most notable is arguably Frito-Lay, which has utilized the vehicle for a couple of years now.
However, as their fleet is making more local runs and there are undoubtedly plans to expand to more Semi units, the company has recognized it needs additional Megachargers to give juice to their trucks.
As a result, Frit-Lay decided to build more chargers at their Bakersfield, California facility, according to new permits filed by Tesla:
🚨 Frito-Lay is building an 8-stall Megacharger array at its factory in Bakersfield, California https://t.co/qARfJjogXF pic.twitter.com/gvorIVxsoc
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 18, 2025
There are already chargers at the company’s Modesto, California, factory, but Bakersfield is roughly three hours south of Modesto.
Interestingly, Tesla is calling the chargers “Semi Chargers” in the filing, potentially hinting that it is no longer referring to them as “Megachargers,” as they have been in the past. This is a relatively minor detail, but it is worth taking note of.
In 2022, Frito-Lay began installing these chargers in preparation for the Semi to become one of the company’s main logistics tools for deliveries in California and surrounding states.
Frito-Lay is not the only company that has chosen to utilize the Tesla Semi for these early “pilot” runs. PepsiCo has also been a company that has used the Semi very publicly over the past two years.
Additionally, the Tesla Semi participated in the Run on Less EV trucking study back in late 2023, where it managed to complete a 1,000-mile run in a single day:
Tesla Semi logs 1,000-mile day in Run on Less EV trucking study
Tesla is planning to ramp production of the Semi late this year. On the Q4 2024 Earnings Call, VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy said the company would be focusing on the first builds of the Semi’s high-volume design late this year before ramping production in the early portion of 2026:
“We just closed out the Semi factory roof and walls last week in Reno, a schedule which is great with the weather. In Reno, you never know what’s going to happen. But we’re prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months. The first builds of the high-volume Semi design will come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026.”
Tesla will build these units at a new Semi production facility located in Reno near its Gigafactory. The company is getting closer to finishing construction, as a drone video from this morning showed the facility is coming along at a good pace:
🚨Tesla Semi factory progress update: pic.twitter.com/dlzIjKwfT3
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 18, 2025
News
Tesla Cybercab no longer using chase vehicles in Giga Texas
Elon Musk expects Tesla to produce about 2 million Cybercab units per year.
The Tesla Cybercab is the company’s first vehicle that is designed solely for autonomous driving. And while the spacious two-seater is expected to start volume production in 2026, the vehicle’s development seems to be moving at a steady pace.
This was hinted at in recent images taken by a longtime Tesla watcher at the Giga Texas complex.
Tesla Cybercab Production
The Cybercab will likely be Tesla’s highest volume vehicle, with CEO Elon Musk stating during the company’s Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting that the robotaxi’s production line will resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line. Part of this is due to Tesla’s unboxed process, which should make the Cybercab easy to produce.
Elon Musk expects Tesla to produce about 2 million Cybercabs per year. And while the vehicle is expected to see volume production at Giga Texas next year, the CEO noted that the vehicle will be manufactured in more than one facility when it is fully ramped.
No More Chase Cars
While the Cybercab is not yet being produced, Tesla is evidently busy testing the vehicle’s fully autonomous driving system. This could be hinted at by the Cybercabs that have been spotted around the Giga Texas complex over the past months. Following last year’s We, Robot event, drone operators such as longtime Tesla watcher Joe Tegtmeyer have spotted Cybercabs being tested around the Giga Texas complex.
At the time, videos from Giga Texas showed that the driverless Cybercabs were always accompanied by a manually driven Model 3 validation chase car. This was understandable considering that the Giga Texas complex features pedestrians, other cars, and construction areas. As per the drone operator in a recent post on social media platform X, however, Tesla seems to have stopped using chase cars for its Cybercab tests a few weeks ago.
Aggressive Tints
The reasons behind this alleged update are up for speculation, though it would not be surprising if the Cybercab’s autonomous driving system could now safely navigate the Gigafactory Texas complex on its own. Interestingly enough, the Cybercabs that were recently photographed by the drone operator featured very aggressive tint, making it almost impossible to make out the interior of the robotaxi.
This is quite interesting as other Cybercabs that have been spotted around Giga Texas were only equipped with semi-dark tints. One such vehicle that was spotted in February was even speculated to be fitted with an apparent steering wheel.
Tesla doubles down on Robotaxi launch date, putting a big bet on its timeline
Tesla Semi fleet from Frito-Lay gets more charging at Bakersfield factory
Tesla Cybercab no longer using chase vehicles in Giga Texas
-
News2 weeks agoTesla rolls out new, more affordable trim of the Model Y Juniper in U.S.
-
News2 weeks agoTesla expands Early Access Program (EAP) for early Full Self-Driving testing
-
News2 weeks agoTesla celebrates key milestone for 4680 battery cell production cost
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks ago“Nothing Magnificent about Tesla (TSLA),” claims Jim Cramer
-
News1 week agoI took a Tesla new Model Y Demo Drive – Here’s what I learned
-
News2 weeks agoTesla Europe shares FSD test video weeks ahead of launch target
-
News2 weeks agoThis Tesla executive is leaving the company after over 12 years
-
News2 weeks agoTesla’s Giga Texas vehicles now drive themselves to outbound lot