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SpaceX Falcon 9 crushes next-gen ULA Vulcan rocket on cost in first competition
The United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket appears to have made it through what could be described as its first real competition with SpaceX and its Falcon 9 workhorse.
The US Space Force (or Air Force) awarded both rockets two launch contracts each on March 9th, marking the second award under “Phase 2” of a new National Security Space Launch (NSSL; formerly Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle or EELV) agreement. The culmination of a multi-year competition, NSSL Phase 2 calcified in late 2020 when the US military ultimately chose ULA and SpaceX as its primary launch providers for the better part of the next decade.
The final Phase 2 agreement followed Phase 1, in which the USAF committed up to $2.3 billion to assist Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, and ULA in their efforts to develop future military launch capabilities. SpaceX submitted a proposal but didn’t win funds. Even though the ULA-SpaceX dichotomy was already a more or less fixed outcome before the competition even began, the US military still managed to dole out almost $800 million to Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman before announcing that neither provider had been selected for Phase 2.
Notably, as part of Phase 1, ULA is on track to receive nearly $1 billion in USSF/USAF aid to develop its next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket and ensure that it meets all of the military’s exacting, unique requirements. SpaceX, on the other hand, received a sum total of $0 from that opaque slush fund to meet the exact same requirements as ULA.
For Phase 2, the US military arbitrarily split the roughly two-dozen launch contracts up for grabs into a 60/40 pile. Even more bizarrely, the USAF did everything in its power to prevent two of the three rockets it had just spent more than $1.7 billion to help develop from receiving any of those two or three-dozen available launch contracts – all but literally setting $800M of that investment on fire. Short of comical levels of blind ineptitude, verging on criminal negligence, the only possible explanation for the US military’s behavior with NSSL Phase 1 and Phase 2 is a no-holds-barred effort to guarantee that ULA and its Vulcan Centaur rocket would have zero real competition.
The arbitrary 60:40 split of the final Phase 2 contract ‘lot’ further supports that argument. A government agency objectively interested in securing the best possible value and redundancy for its taxpayer-provided money would logically exploit a $1.7B investment as much as possible instead of throwing two-thirds of its ultimate value in the trash. On its own, a block-buy scenario – even with a leading goal of selecting two providers – is fundamentally inferior to an open competition for each of the dozens of launch contracts at hand.
Further, selecting the block-buy option and failing to split those contracts 50:50 makes it even clearer that the USAF’s only steadfast NSSL Phase 2 goal was to guarantee ULA enough Vulcan launch contracts for the company to be comfortable and (most likely) not lose money on a rocket that has yet to demonstrate an ability to compete on the commercial launch market.
Amazingly, despite multiple handicaps in the form of a 60:40 contract split and what amounts to a $1B subsidy that explicitly disadvantages its only competitor, ULA’s Vulcan rocket still appears to be ~40% more expensive than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. In the latest round of NSSL Phase 2 contracts, seemingly the first in which ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket was selected, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 received two East Coast launch contracts worth slightly less than $160M, averaging out to less than $80M each.
Outfitted with four of a possible zero, two, four, or six strap-on solid rocket boosters (SRBs), Vulcan Centaur received two launch contracts for $224M – an average of $112M each. Assuming ULA wins exactly 60% (~15) of the Phase 2 launch contracts up for grabs and receives no more than $1 billion in USAF development funding through NSSL Phase 1, some $67 million will have to be added to the cost of each announced Vulcan launch contract to get a truly accurate picture. In the case of the rocket’s first two contracts, the real average cost of each Vulcan Centaur launch could thus be closer to $179M ($112M+$67M).
According to ULA CEO Tory Bruno, both Vulcan missions are to “high-energy orbits,” whereas a USAF official told Spaceflight Now that SpaceX’s two Falcon 9 contracts were to “lower-energy orbits.” In Vulcan’s defense, if Bruno’s “high-energy orbit” comment means a circular geostationary orbit (GEO) or a very heavy payload to an elliptical geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), it’s possible that SpaceX would have had to use Falcon Heavy to complete the same contracts. Against Falcon Heavy’s established institutional pricing and excluding ULA’s $1B Phase 1 subsidy, Vulcan Centaur is reasonably competitive.
Ultimately, even with several significant cards stacked against it, SpaceX appears likely to continue crushing entrenched competitors like ULA and Arianespace on cost while still offering performance and results equivalent to or better than even than their “next-generation” rockets.
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Tesla UK sales see 14% year-over-year rebound in June: SMMT data
The SMMT stated that Tesla sales grew 14% year-over-year to 7,719 units in June 2025.
Tesla’s sales in the United Kingdom rose in June, climbing 14% year-over-year to 7,719 units, as per data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The spike in the company’s sales coincided with the first deliveries of the updated Model Y last month.
Model Y deliveries support Tesla’s UK recovery
Tesla’s June performance marked one of its strongest months in the UK so far this year, with new Model Y deliveries contributing significantly to the company’s momentum.
While the SMMT listed Tesla with 7,719 deliveries in June, independent data from New AutoMotive suggested that the electric vehicle maker registered 7,891 units during the month instead. However, year-to-date figures for Tesla remain 2% down compared to 2024, as per a report from Reuters.
While Tesla made a strong showing in June, rivals are also growing. Chinese automaker BYD saw UK sales rise nearly fourfold to 2,498 units, while Ford posted the highest EV growth among major automakers, with a more than fourfold increase in the first half of 2025.
Overall, the UK’s battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand surged 39% to to 47,354 units last month, helping push total new car sales in the UK to 191,316 units, up 6.7% from the same period in 2024.
EV adoption accelerates, but concerns linger
June marked the best month for UK car sales since 2019, though the SMMT cautioned that growth in the electric vehicle sector remains heavily dependent on discounting and support programs. Still, one in four new vehicle buyers in June chose a battery electric vehicle.
SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes noted that despite strong BEV demand, sales levels are still below regulatory targets. “Further growth in sales, and the sector will rely on increased and improved charging facilities to boost mainstream electric vehicle adoption,” Hawes stated.
Also taking effect this week was a new US-UK trade deal, which lowers tariffs on UK car exports to the United States from 27.5% to 10%. The agreement could benefit UK-based EV producers aiming to expand across the country.
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Tesla Model 3 ranks as the safest new car in Europe for 2025, per Euro NCAP tests
Despite being on the market longer than many of its rivals, the Tesla Model 3 continues to set the bar for vehicle safety.
The Tesla Model 3 has been named the safest new car on sale in 2025, according to the latest results from the Euro NCAP. Among 20 newly tested vehicles, the Model 3 emerged at the top of the list, scoring an impressive 359 out of 400 possible points across all major safety categories.
Tesla Model 3’s safety systems
Despite being on the market longer than many of its rivals, the Tesla Model 3 continues to set the bar for vehicle safety. Under Euro NCAP’s stricter 2025 testing protocols, the electric sedan earned 90% for adult occupant protection, 93% for child occupant protection, 89% for pedestrian protection, and 87% for its Safety Assist systems.
The updated Model 3 received particular praise for its advanced driver assistance features, including Tesla’s autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system, which performed well across various test scenarios. Its Intelligent Speed Assistance and child presence detection system were cited as noteworthy features as well, as per a WhatCar report.
Other notable safety features include the Model 3’s pedestrian-friendly pop-up hood and robust crash protection for both front and side collisions. Euro NCAP also highlighted the Model 3’s ability to detect vulnerable road users during complex maneuvers, such as turning across oncoming traffic.
Euro NCAP’s Autopilot caution
While the Model 3’s safety scores were impressive across the board, Euro NCAP did raise concerns about driver expectations of Tesla’s Autopilot system. The organization warned that some owners may overestimate the system’s capabilities, potentially leading to misuse or inattention behind the wheel. Even so, the Model 3 remained the highest-scoring vehicle tested under Euro NCAP’s updated criteria this year.
The Euro NCAP’s concerns are also quite interesting because Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised, which is arguably the company’s most robust safety suite, is not allowed for public rollout in Europe yet. FSD Supervised would allow the Model 3 to navigate inner city streets with only minimal human supervision.
Other top scorers included the Volkswagen ID.7, Polestar 3, and Geely EX5, but none matched the Model 3’s total score or consistency across categories. A total of 14 out of 20 newly tested cars earned five stars, while several models, including the Kia EV3, MG ZS, and Renault 5, fell short of the top rating.
Elon Musk
Why Tesla’s Q3 could be one of its biggest quarters in history
Tesla could stand to benefit from the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of Q3.
Tesla has gotten off to a slow start in 2025, as the first half of the year has not been one to remember from a delivery perspective.
However, Q3 could end up being one of the best the company has had in history, with the United States potentially being a major contributor to what might reverse a slow start to the year.
Earlier today, the United States’ House of Representatives officially passed President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” after it made its way through the Senate earlier this week. The bill will head to President Trump, as he looks to sign it before his July 4 deadline.
The Bill will effectively bring closure to the $7,500 EV tax credit, which will end on September 30, 2025. This means, over the next three months in the United States, those who are looking to buy an EV will have their last chance to take advantage of the credit. EVs will then be, for most people, $7,500 more expensive, in essence.
The tax credit is available to any single filer who makes under $150,000 per year, $225,000 a year to a head of household, and $300,000 to couples filing jointly.
Ending the tax credit was expected with the Trump administration, as his policies have leaned significantly toward reliance on fossil fuels, ending what he calls an “EV mandate.” He has used this phrase several times in disagreements with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Nevertheless, those who have been on the fence about buying a Tesla, or any EV, for that matter, will have some decisions to make in the next three months. While all companies will stand to benefit from this time crunch, Tesla could be the true winner because of its sheer volume.
If things are done correctly, meaning if Tesla can also offer incentives like 0% APR, special pricing on leasing or financing, or other advantages (like free Red, White, and Blue for a short period of time in celebration of Independence Day), it could see some real volume in sales this quarter.
You can now buy a Tesla in Red, White, and Blue for free until July 14 https://t.co/iAwhaRFOH0
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 3, 2025
Tesla is just a shade under 721,000 deliveries for the year, so it’s on pace for roughly 1.4 million for 2025. This would be a decrease from the 1.8 million cars it delivered in each of the last two years. Traditionally, the second half of the year has produced Tesla’s strongest quarters. Its top three quarters in terms of deliveries are Q4 2024 with 495,570 vehicles, Q4 2023 with 484,507 vehicles, and Q3 2024 with 462,890 vehicles.
Tesla UK sales see 14% year-over-year rebound in June: SMMT data
Tesla Model 3 ranks as the safest new car in Europe for 2025, per Euro NCAP tests
Why Tesla’s Q3 could be one of its biggest quarters in history
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