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SpaceX Falcon 9 Starlink launch eyes two reusability milestones as new satellite details emerge
SpaceX is set for Falcon 9’s first orbital launch in more than three months. Known as Starlink-1, the mission will launch the company’s heaviest satellite payload ever and feature an impressive array of Falcon 9 booster and fairing reusability milestones.
Flatsat stack
Prior to Falcon 9 going vertical on the launch pad, SpaceX technicians had to construct and encapsulate a massive stack of 60 Starlink satellites, each weighing more than 260 kg (570 lb) apiece. This is the second time SpaceX has launched sixty of the advanced spacecraft, although the satellites that will launch on Starlink-1 feature a number of upgrades and refinements not present on the Starlink v0.9 satellites that launched in May 2019.
Without an identical angle from the Starlink v0.9 mission to compare against, it’s difficult to immediately point out visual differences between v0.9 and v1.0 spacecraft. Still, there are some clear general changes. Most notably, SpaceX appears to have dramatically reduced the area of shiny, metallic surfaces. Additionally, the small downward-facing dishes just left of center in the above image were not obviously present on Starlink v0.9 satellites or SpaceX’s official renders.
Those new dishes could be traditional dish antennas meant to serve as a more basic telemetry, tracking, and command (TTC) communications link for ground controllers. They could even be a prototype of Starlink’s planned inter-satellite laser data links. Regardless, it’s obvious that SpaceX is continuing its preferred cycle of rapid prototyping, flight-testing, and data-based refinement with Starlink.
SpaceX is also focused on dramatically lowering the albedo (reflectivity) of Starlink satellites and working closely with the astronomy and astrophysics communities to minimize any disruption the spacecraft might cause for scientific observations of the night sky. For any part that will be ground-facing during routine operations, this likely involves replacing shiny surfaces with matte finishes and adding dark or non-reflective coatings/insulation where possible, among other potential tweaks.
The more milestones, the merrier
Beyond the many apparent satellite upgrades Starlink-1 is set to debut, the mission will also mark no less than three (or possibly even four) reusability milestones. Falcon 9 booster B1048 has been selected by SpaceX to support Starlink-1 and has already completed three successful orbital-class missions since it debuted in July 2018. Assuming all goes well, B1048 will thus become the first SpaceX booster to launch (and land) four times, an excellent – if increasingly unsurprising – step forward for Falcon 9’s Block 5 upgrade. Falcon 9 B1048 will attempt its fourth landing – this time on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) – shortly after launch.
Designed to enable up to 10 reuses of each Falcon booster, the successful completion of Starlink-1 will place Block 5 just one reuse away from the halfway point to proving its 10-reuse design. While Block 5 has yet to materialize any tangible improvements in booster turnaround time, an imminent ramp in Starlink launch cadence will hopefully give SpaceX plenty of opportunities to start making progress on that front.
Starlink-1 is also set to mark the inaugural launch of a flight-proven Falcon 9 fairing, essentially putting a bow on the bulk of SpaceX’s challenging fairing recovery and reusability development. Unintuitively, Starlink-1’s fairing previously supported Falcon Heavy Block 5’s April 209 launch debut, meaning that both halves traveled both faster and higher than any halves that previously attempted recovery.
Simultaneously, both halves splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean with no attempt to catch them, meaning that SpaceX has apparently successfully refurbished the fairings despite the fact that their recovery was more or less the worst-case scenario.
Last but not least, Starlink-1 will also mark the first time SpaceX’s just-finished fairing recovery ship GO Ms. Chief attempts to catch a Falcon 9 fairing, as well as the first time two fairing recovery ships – Ms. Tree & Ms. Chief – attempt to catch both halves of a Falcon fairing after launch. The twin recovery vessels departed Port Canaveral, Florida a few days ago and arrived at their recovery point ~750 km (460 mi) downrange on November 10th.
Finally, thanks to the fact that Falcon 9’s fairing is flight-proven, Starlink-1 will additionally feature the first attempted recovery (catch or splashdown) of a flight-proven Falcon fairing. SpaceX could scarcely fit in another milestone if it wanted to go out of its way to do so.
Falcon 9 is scheduled to lift off no earlier than 9:56 am ET (14:56 UTC), November 11th. Weather is 80% GO and SpaceX has a backup launch window around the same time on November 12th with a 70%-favorable weather forecast.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
