Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

Hyundai Motor Company is preparing for President Trump’s tariffs by investing billions in the United States, particularly in its new car factory in Georgia.

“We are looking forward to officially opening Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America (HMGMA) in Georgia (next week). Our localization strategy in the important U.S. market will help mitigate the impact of any potential policy change,” said Hyundai’s President and CEO Jose Muñoz, during the company’s shareholders’ meeting.

By April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump intends to impose a 25% tariff on vehicles imported from other countries.

“Unless the tariff or non-tariff barriers are equalized, or the U.S. has higher tariffs, the tariffs will go into effect,” commented Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking about Trump’s tariffs in general–not just those imposed on imported vehicles.

Hyundai’s strategy to alleviate potential risks from Trump’s tariffs is to invest more in the United States so it can increase local production. The Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant American (HMGMA) is essential to the South Korean company’s plans.

“Hyundai Motor and its partners are investing $12.6 billion (18.4 trillion won) in an assembly plant and two battery joint ventures, enabling additional production capacity. The decision to make this investment was made during the first Trump administration,” said Muñoz.

In its HMGMA plant in Georgia, Hyundai aims to ramp up production of the 2025 IONIQ 5 EV. Hyundai’s Georgia plant kicked off IONIQ 5 production in October 2024. The Korean automaker is also preparing to produce the IONIQ 9 EV by the end of Q1 2025 at HMGMA.

HMGMA was supposed to focus only on fully electric vehicles initially. However, after EV sales dropped in 2024, Hyundai decided to produce hybrids at its Georgia plant. Hyundai’s CEO announced that preparations for hybrid production are underway at the facility.

Hyundai plans to offer an array of vehicles to customers worldwide, including internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, EVs, hybrids, and even hydrogen cars. Despite its plans, the legacy automaker still seems keen on an electrified future. It pledges to invest $90 billion over the next decade to develop 21 EVS and 14 hybrids. Hyundai aims to increase EV sales to over 2 million units worldwide by 2030.

China’s top automaker, BYD, is under investigation by the European Union for violating the EU’s electric vehicle (EV) subsidy rules.

According to the Financial Times, BYD received unfair subsidies from China which were used in its electric car plant in Hungary. Subsidies from the Chinese government are the main reason the EU Commission decided to implement additional tariffs on exported electric vehicles made in China and sold in Europe. The subsidies from China reportedly enabled car manufacturers to make China-made EVs cheaper in the EU market, affecting Europe’s local OEMs and competition in the domestic market.

The European Commission is in the early stages of a foreign subsidy probe into BYD’s EV plant in Hungary. If the Commission finds evidence that China provided subsidies to BYD’s EV plant in Hungary, it may force the Chinese automaker to sell some assets, reduce capacity, repay the subsidy, and pay a fine for non-compliance.

In October 2024, enough member states of the European Union voted to impose additional tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.

“Today, the European Commission’s proposal to impose definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China has obtained the necessary support from EU Member States for the adoption of tariffs. This represents another step towards the conclusion of the Commission’s anti-subsidy investigation,” announced the Commission after the EU member states’ vote. 

The European Union imposed a 17.0% levy on BYD specifically, on top of the EU’s standard car import duty of 10%. Geely received an additional duty of 18.8%, while SAIC received a tariff rate of 35.3%. Most automakers who build cars in China and export to Europe will have a duty of 35.3%. Only a few automakers, like Tesla and BYD, have an assigned duty rate.

Tesla invited the EU Commission to inspect its operations in Shanghai to determine a separate tariff rate for its China-made EVs exported to Europe. Tesla received a duty of 7.8% after the investigation.