Investor's Corner
Tesla shares jump amid $500 price target and Model 3 dual motor update
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is showing signs of recovery on Monday’s intraday, rising 5.23% and trading at $291.10 per share prior to the day’s opening bell. Tesla’s upswing came amidst a new vote of confidence from investment bank Berenberg, which raised its price target to $500 per share, signifying an 80% upside to Friday’s close.
Apart from raising its price target for TSLA stock from $470 to $500, Berenberg also predicted that the electric car maker and energy company would be able to achieve its 25% gross profit margin forecast for the Model 3. The investment bank reiterated its Buy rating for TSLA stock as well.
According to Berenberg analyst Alexander Haissl in a note on Friday, the assumption that Tesla Model S and Model X profit margins could be a basis for the Model 3 is flawed. Haissl noted that gains from lower labor content and capital and material use efficiencies would enable Tesla to hit its 25% goal.
“Model 3 gross margin to positively surprise. The widespread assumption that Model 3 margins can be directly inferred from Model S/X is inherently and almost totally flawed. Substantial gains from lower labor content, as well as capital and material use efficiencies, should allow Tesla to comfortably achieve a margin above 25% throughout the product cycle,” the analyst wrote.
Haissl also cited the Model 3’s more straightforward design and lower material costs as a means for Tesla to achieve profitability on the vehicle. The Berenberg analyst estimates that the labor cost for the Model 3 is likely around $1,000 per vehicle, compared to the $4,000 estimated labor costs for the Model S. This, according to Haissl, is due to Tesla’s “higher levels of automation and lower in-sourced content” in the Model 3 production line.
Most importantly, the Berenberg analyst downplayed fears and speculations that Tesla would be moving away from a more modernized production system.
“We think reports that Tesla is reversing its automated manufacturing strategy over-exaggerated the real changes to the production system. We expect Tesla to remain the battery technology leader, as traditional OEMs have shown little effort to commit meaningful capital into battery technology,” Haissl wrote.
Apart from Berenberg’s positive outlook, investor sentiment appears to have received a boost from Elon Musk’s announcement of the next two variants of the Model 3. Over the weekend, Musk revealed the specs and pricing of the compact electric car’s two new versions.
According to Musk, the Model 3 dual-motor AWD, which costs $54,000 without Autopilot, will be able to go from 0-60 mph in 4.5 seconds and have a top speed of 140 mph. The Model 3 Performance, on the other hand, will command a higher price of $78,000 without Autopilot. True to its name, the Model 3 Performance will have a top speed of 155 mph and be capable of sprinting to 60 mph in just 3.5 seconds.
In later tweets during the weekend, Musk also explained the rather long wait for reservation holders who are holding out for the Model 3’s $35,000, standard-range version.
With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 21, 2018
As of writing, TSLA stock is trading up 5.23% at $291.10 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla bull Wedbush has responded to the company’s lackluster Q1 delivery figures, which were released on Wednesday morning in a new note from analyst Dan Ives.
Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a far cry from the Wall Street estimate of 352,000 and whisper numbers of roughly 350,000. At first glance, it seems to be a disaster, but Tesla said it lost “several weeks of production” in Q1 due to the ramp of the new Model Y at all four of its vehicle production factories.
This could be part of the reason that the company experienced a quarter of this performance, but there are also factors stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. government, which has created some pushback in various markets.
It’s tough to say how much of each issue caused this type of quarter, but Ives wrote in a note to investors that Wedbush could not look at this “with rose-colored glasses,” as the performance “was a disaster on every metric.”
Ives believes it is time for Musk to make a move:
“The Street and us knew a bad 1Q was coming but this was even worse than expected. The time has come for Musk….it’s a fork in the road moment. The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla. This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead.”
Interestingly, the stock dropped over 5 percent after the delivery report. It quickly rebounded 8 percent and is currently up over 5 percent on the day after a report from Politico stated that Musk and President Donald Trump have discussed the CEO stepping back from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Based on that, it seems that investors were looking for Musk to step back from his government duties and show more public attention to Tesla. Realistically, we do not know how much of his time is being devoted to Tesla and its EV initiative. However, it seems investors were ready to hear something along the lines of Musk being more involved and speaking openly about Tesla and its projects.
It’s not all bad. Ives still recognizes Tesla’s prowess with the rollout of robotaxi and Full Self-Driving and how much impact it could have moving forward:
“Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation…”
With that being said, he also wants Musk to balance responsibilities with DOGE and Tesla:
“BUT…Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.”
Tesla shares are trading at $283.01, up 5.42% at 1:57 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shares date for “Company Update” and Q1 2025 earnings call
Tesla seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced the date for its upcoming first quarter 2025 earnings call.
Interestingly enough, the company seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.
Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Call Date
As shared by Tesla in its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, the company would be holding its first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Similar to past earnings calls, the event will be livestreamed. An archived version of the session would also be shared on the company’s website.
Prior to the earnings call, Tesla will be releasing its Q1 2025 Update Letter. The Q1 2025 Update Letter will be released after markets close on April 22.
A Company Update
Tesla enthusiasts and TSLA bulls have observed that the electric vehicle maker adjusted its wording a bit in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As could be seen in the release, Tesla noted that it would also be holding a “Company Update” on April 22. This is the first time that such an event has been referenced by the electric vehicle maker with its quarterly earnings call.
“In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” Tesla wrote in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. Tesla also referenced a “Company Update” in a post on its official X account.
Expectations are high that Tesla will discuss some of its highly anticipated projects during its Company Update. These may include, among other things, new affordable vehicles that were mentioned in the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Update Letter.
“Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” Tesla wrote.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its first quarter 2025 vehicle delivery and production report.
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Q1 2025 Deliveries
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 336,681 vehicles globally. This is comprised of 323,800 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 12,881 units of Tesla’s other models.
In comparison, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus indicated that analysts were expecting 377,592 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025. FactSet estimates were even more optimistic, with analysts expecting vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in the first quarter.
Q1 2025 Production
Tesla produced a total of 362,615 vehicles in the first quarter across its factories globally. From this number, a total of 345,454 units were comprised of the Model 3 and Model Y, and 17,161 were comprised of the company’s other models.
In its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, Tesla noted that the changeover of its Model Y lines across Gigafactory Texas, Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, and Gigafactory Berlin, led to the loss of several weeks’ worth of production in the quarter. The vehicle, however, is now being ramped.
TSLA Reaction
While Tesla missed analysts’ expectations, investors do not seem to be too disappointed. As per writing, TSLA stock is just down 1.87% at $263.43 per share.
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