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Tesla analyst narrows down final prediction for Q4 deliveries

Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report Q4 and Full Year 2022 delivery figures as early as today, and analyst Dan Ives believes the company is in line to publish its strongest final quarter figures in company history.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said that he believes Tesla is set to report between 415,000 and 420,000 deliveries for Q4 2022, bringing the company’s total to over 1.3 million units for the year. 420,000 units would be “solid” in Ives’s estimate, especially as the company has combated rumors of production limitations in China, as well as general, macro-level concerns that could be related to residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which sent the supply chain into a tailspin over the past three years.

Tesla pushed into Q4 with relatively no doubt that it would reach its first one million unit year. After eclipsing 900,000 deliveries by the end of the third quarter, Tesla’s reputation for kicking it into overdrive in Q4 took over, and the company did not disappoint. After offering a $3,750 discount on Model 3 and Model Y units in early December, Tesla increased this incentive to $7,500 while also offering 10,000 free Supercharging miles.

The incentive to push Tesla’s mass-market vehicles out the door and into consumers’ hands was followed by late rewards for Model S and Model X purchases. Tesla started offering a $7,500 discount and 10,000 Supercharging miles on these vehicles during the last few days of 2022.

Inventory withered and customers took advantage of the offers Tesla had, which should bode well for the company’s delivery figures for Q4 and the full year. However, the attention is already turning to what Tesla could accomplish in 2023. As Ives said, Wedbush estimates 1.8 million units for Tesla this year, which would be a roughly 500,000 vehicle increase compared to 2022, if his estimations for last year are correct.

Tesla could release delivery figures today, but as the market is closed and the stock has taken a beating, the automaker could wait to push the statistics when trading resumes tomorrow. However, that is speculative.

Tesla has a full plate in 2023 as it plans to launch Cybertruck production and could announce a new production facility within the first month of the new year.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

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Tesla analyst narrows down final prediction for Q4 deliveries
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