Investor's Corner

Tesla gets ‘Outperform’ rating amid improving ‘fundamentals’ and Model 3 ramp

Published

7 years ago

September 6, 2018

Simon Alvarez

Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) received a vote of confidence from Wall Street on Thursday, as Oppenheimer reiterated its “Outperform” rating on the company and Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster noted that the electric car maker’s fundamentals could outweigh the controversy currently surrounding CEO Elon Musk.

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that Tesla seems poised to meet its targets for Model 3 production and profitability in Q3. Rusch’s note comes amidst Musk seemingly expressing his support of a report recently published by electric car-themed website InsideEVs, which listed the Model 3, Model S, and Model X, as the Top 3 best-selling electric cars in the United States for August.

“While InsideEVs‘ estimates are just that, estimates, we believe the service has been effective in identifying directional and order of magnitude trends on monthly shipments for Model 3 in lieu of verified data from the company. We believe TSLA is tracking toward achieving its 3Q:18 guidance. We believe TSLA has the potential to be a transformational technology company and deliver outsized returns,” Rusch noted.

Rusch reiterated Oppenheimer’s “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, while also reaffirming his 12-18 month price target of $385 — a 37% upside to Wednesday’s close.

Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster also expressed his optimism about Tesla’s Q3 performance in a recent interview with FOX Business. When asked about his views on the controversies currently surrounding Elon Musk and the stock’s recovery this Thursday, Munster noted that behind the CEO’s questionable online behavior is a company whose fundamentals are improving.

“There’s two sides of the ledger. The side of Elon Musk as a leader — and as someone who has been an investor, an adviser, and an analyst for many years — that has been, to say, concerning is an understatement, his behavior over the last six months, and the last few weeks in particular. The other side of the ledger is how the business is doing, and I suspect that the reason why the stock is up is that he’s out today saying that their sales are going well. He made some tweets related to that. They (also) had an order of 30 other Semis from Walmart.

“If, in fact, they do exit the September quarter profitable, which is what they’ve predicted, I think that that will basically trump any of the negativity we’ve seen around him. So our bet is that the fundamentals are gonna outweigh this concerning and inexcusable behavior,” he said.

Tesla stock has seen a wild August, particularly after Elon Musk posted a tweet stating that he is thinking of taking the company private at $420 per share, and that he had “funding secured.” The days and weeks following the announcement were tumultuous in the least, with lawsuits, reports of SEC investigations, and Elon Musk’s capability to lead Tesla being questioned by the company’s critics. Tesla’s stock mostly dropped in August after Musk’s tweet, culminating in Wednesday’s close when the stock ended the day at $280.74 per share.

Based on strategies that Tesla adopted over the past two quarters, there is a good chance that the company will push the Model 3 even more this September, which is the final month of Q3 2018. Tesla, after all, has a tendency to adopt radical strategies during the last month of a quarter, as seen in its production blitz during the final week of March when it built more than 2,000 Model 3 in seven days, as well as its initiatives in June when it built GA4 and air-freighted robots from Europe in an attempt to hit its target of producing 5,000 Model 3 in one week.

Tesla is attempting to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3 this quarter while hitting profitability at the same time. While these are ambitious goals, the company has been showing signs that it is capable of actually meeting its Q3 targets. The company, for one, has shown that it can sustain its pace of manufacturing 5,000 units of the electric car in a week, which was confirmed by Elon Musk during the Q2 2018 earnings call. Tesla might also be within reach of its goal in terms of profitability, especially considering that Detroit veteran Sandy Munro concluded that the Long Range RWD Model 3, which would likely comprise a significant number of the company’s deliveries this Q3, exceeds 30% profit after a thorough teardown and analysis of the vehicle.

Simon Alvarez

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla gets an upgrade on ‘upcoming material catalysts’

Published

13 hours ago

March 19, 2025

Joey Klender

(Source: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received an upgraded rating on its shares from Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who recently took a trip to Austin to visit the company’s data centers and production lines ahead of several high-profile product launches set for this year.

It was a bold move, especially considering Tesla shares are under immense pressure currently, fending off negative news regarding the company’s sentiment and potentially lower-than-expected delivery figures due to the launch of a new version of its most popular vehicle, the Model Y.

However, the bulls on Wall Street are still considering Tesla to be a safe play, especially considering its robust presence in various industries, including automotive, energy, and AI/Robotics.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note that, during a recent visit to Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the production line at Gigafactory Texas, it was clear there is a lot of potential and runway for Tesla in 2025:

“On 3/18, we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin, followed by CA later in 2025). With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YRD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts. Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged. Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Catalysts.”

Sheppard went on to mention the catalysts, which he believes are the Robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, along with the continued rollout of Full Self-Driving in China, the eventual rollout of FSD in Europe, and the introduction of the affordable models in the first half of this year, and those were just on the automotive side.

There are several others, including Optimus, growth in the energy division, and in the longer term, the Semi.

In terms of potential weaknesses, Sheppard expects the likely removal of the EV tax credit and some of its growth to be offset by tariffs as the two big things that stand in the way of even more growth for the company.

Tesla is up over 5 percent on Wednesday, trading at $236.86.

Investor's Corner

Tesla stock surges on Wednesday, but there’s still more room to go

Published

1 week ago

March 12, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over 7 percent on Wednesday, canceling out some of the losses it has felt this week.

It has been a less-than-ideal start for Tesla in 2025, as the company has wiped out all of its gains felt from the victorious election campaign of President Donald Trump. The stock is down 34 percent so far this year.

The losses have mostly been felt due to reports of decreased demand due to pushback against CEO Elon Musk and his support of President Trump, as well as investor concern over the CEO’s personal use of time between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Tesla itself.

In a note this week from Wedbush, analyst Dan Ives wrote:

“Musk needs to step up as Tesla CEO at this critical juncture. In a nutshell, the word ‘balance’ has been missing with Elon Musk and his ability to run Tesla as CEO….while instead focusing all of his energy and time driving his DOGE initiative within the Trump Administration. Since Trump’s White House 2nd term kicked off in January, we have seen Musk and Trump connected at the hip with Musk essentially living at the White House and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. There has been little to no sign of Musk at any Tesla factory or manufacturing facility the last two months and perception has become reality for Tesla shares. Trump getting elected President was a huge moment for Musk and Tesla in our view as this will create the fast track for an autonomous federal roadmap…however the DOGE efforts have now intertwined Tesla into this brewing political firestorm.”

Wednesday’s slight bump for Tesla shares is likely related to the support the company received from President Trump yesterday, who purchased a Model S sedan at the White House and pledged to pay for it with a check.

President Donald Trump buys a Tesla at the White House – Here’s which model he chose

The move was one that signaled a buying spree from high-profile Republicans, including Sean Hannity, among others, who announced their support for Musk and Tesla:

As promised yesterday, I Just ordered my new self driving Tesla! Over 1000HP, 0-60 in 2.0 seconds!
Details on how to win the Tesla of your Choice soon on https://t.co/9hkyEX1UVi! pic.twitter.com/PSCCtUsXK2
— Sean Hannity 🇺🇸 (@seanhannity) March 11, 2025
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Tesla shares closed at $248.09 on Wednesday, up 7.59%.

Investor's Corner

Tesla bull ARK loads up on over $20M in TSLA shares after stock slide

Published

1 week ago

March 11, 2025

Joey Klender

(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla bull ARK Invest loaded up on over $20 million worth of the automaker’s shares on Monday after the company saw its largest slide on the market since late 2020.

Shares dropped over 15 percent on Monday, mostly due to pushback on the stock as CEO Elon Musk heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). His involvement with the U.S. government directly has sent some investors into a predicament over Musk’s dedication to Tesla.

There are also concerns regarding Q1 deliveries, which will be a big indication of where the year could be headed for Tesla.

The Monday slide was the biggest since late 2020 when shares dropped over 21 percent.

However, the slide presents a massive buying opportunity for investors, especially those who operate ETFs, like ARK. Long term, ARK believes Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be exponentially more expensive, especially leaning on the thesis that Robotaxi and AI/Optimus will translate to major growth in yet another sector for the company.

ARK bolstered its position on $TSLA in its ARKK Innovation ETF with a purchase of 68,164 shares. Tesla is the largest holding in ARKK with over $531 million in value. Tesla makes up exactly 10 percent of the ARKK ETF.

It also bought another 11,154 shares in its ARKQ Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF.

It’s no secret Tesla shares have taken a substantial hit in 2025, especially as the company’s price on Wall Street exploded following President Trump’s successful election campaign last year.

So far in 2025, Tesla shares are down over 38 percent. They are up nearly 5 percent as of 2:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Even bullish analysts are hoping some focus returns to Tesla on Musk’s part.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note last night following the broad sell off:

“This is a gut check moment for the Tesla bulls (including ourselves) after this massive sell-off in Tesla shares with fears mounting/accelerating. The bears own the Tesla narrative in the near-term as lackluster sales numbers from Europe, China, and the US in January/February along with Musk protests/brand worries have created many concerns.”

He continued:

“While the DOGE/Trump Musk iron clad partnership has created major brand worries for Tesla…..we estimate less than 5% of Tesla sales globally are at risk from these issues despite the global draconian narrative for Musk. Importantly, we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”