Investor's Corner
Tesla is now more valuable than Volkswagen and BMW combined
Tesla stock closed at a record-high of $780 per share on Monday, pushing the California-based electric carmaker’s valuation to $140.591 billion and above the market cap of Volkswagen and BMW combined. Tesla’s latest record-setting valuation further solidifies the Elon Musk-led company’s position among legacy automakers, eclipsing Volkswagen’s market cap of $90.672 billion and BMW’s $45.894 billion.
Earlier this month, Tesla overtook Volkswagen as the second most valuable carmaker in the world. The latest valuation widens the gap between the two manufacturers to roughly $50 billion on Monday.
Wall Street’s prediction on the further upside of TSLA gave the price some boost. Argus Research upped its price target for the electric carmaker to $808 from $556 citing revenue growth from Model S and Model X and the strong demand for the Model 3.
“Despite past production delays, parts shortages, labor cost overruns and other difficulties, we expect Tesla to benefit from its dominant position in the electric vehicle industry and to improve performance in 2020 and beyond,” said Argus Research analyst Bill Selesky.
ARK Investment Management also updated its valuation model and believes the stock could hit $7,000 per share or even a best-case scenario of $15,000 by 2024.
For Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures and a known Tesla Bull, he attributes the bright future of Tesla to its head start against automotive giants with deeper pockets.
“The thesis for Tesla’s business miracle is rooted in the handful of years that the company operated with effectively no competition. Tesla has nearly a decade head start in EVs as other automakers under-invested in the space,” Munster said.
Tesla has a commanding presence in the mid-luxury sedan market that’s wreaked havoc on BMW and Mercedes Benz who have both been slow in delivering a viable electric vehicle for the everyday consumer. With Tesla’s investment into fun yet useful over-the-air features that have been otherwise foreign to traditional automakers, the company will continue to see unparalleled growth in the industry.
Tesla chief Elon Musk will host an AI hackathon party at his house to accelerate the development of Tesla’s full self-driving capability and Autopilot feature, and most likely fish for new talents to join the company.
Tesla will start the delivery of the Model Y this March, way ahead of schedule. The much-awaited crossover also has an updated EPA range of 315 miles from the original rating of 280 miles.
The Silicon Valley-based carmaker is also getting closer to laying the first bricks of its first factory in Europe, Giga Berlin. It also recently applied for subsidies for its battery cell production in Grunheide, which will help keep costs optimal. In China, Tesla’s factory is offline at the moment due to the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic but Tesla China is continuing its push and answers questions from potential customers via social media.
If Tesla keeps on track and execute flawlessly, we can only expect to see analysts and the automotive world get more bullish and the long-term expectations of skyrocketing stock prices will highly likely come true.
As for the short sellers, losses amounted to $2.5 billion on Monday or about $8 billion since the start of 2020, according to data power company S3 Partners.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla AI5 chip nears completion, Elon Musk teases 9-month development cadence
Tesla Model Y and Model 3 named safest vehicles tested by ANCAP in 2025
