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Elon Musk continues to push optimistic goal for Tesla Full Self-Driving

Elon Musk continues to push the idea that Teslas will be able to drive themselves to your house this year on their own. It’s perhaps the most committed we’ve seen him toward a timeline.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Elon Musk has always been optimistic about when Tesla would be able to solve Full Self-Driving and what its capabilities would be, and sometimes, he’s been a tad too optimistic.

We have heard for many years that Tesla will solve Full Self-Driving by the “end of this year,” and “this” means whichever year he said it in. But this time, he’s putting all his eggs in the 2025 basket, and it was further reiterated in a recent post from the Tesla CEO on X.

Musk’s Tesla has launched several versions of Full Self-Driving in recent months that are extremely impressive. I’ve tried some of these recently-released versions within the last week, and I’ve grown extremely impressed with the performance of FSD, especially in some situations that are even tricky for humans to maneuver.

However, Tesla’s FSD suite handled it flawlessly. That’s the kind of thing investors and consumers need to see before it is released, especially as we’ve all heard the “this year” speech for nearly a decade. It might be the real thing this time, especially as the company is leaning heavily on the Robotaxi fleet to take it to the next level.

Earlier today, Tesla’s official account on X indicated that your car will be able to drive itself to your house. Musk had a witty and simple reply, something that indicates and reiterates his optimistic outlook for FSD as it continues to be refined and adjusted for what will likely be a June release in Austin, Texas:

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Of course, this is not a confirmation that Tesla will roll out Full Self-Driving that is unsupervised within the next few months. It is increasingly obvious that Musk is gaining tons of confidence in what the company is doing, as he has reiterated this end-of-year target on several occasions.

It does not appear that the release of FSD will be a widespread one. Instead, it seems as if Tesla will roll out the Robotaxi fleet in several cities at first, as it has already taken several regulatory steps in Texas and California.

Tesla receives its first robotaxi permit in California

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If Tesla is able to come through on this, it would be massive for the company and its investors, especially as the FSD suite is a major point of value for the future. However, not coming through on this timeline would be a massive misstep for the company. Musk’s adamance regarding the 2025 rollout of self-driving features is truly the most committed we’ve ever seen him toward this sort of timeline.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s xAI bets $20B on Mississippi with 2GW AI data center project

The project is expected to create hundreds of permanent jobs, dramatically expand xAI’s computing capacity, and further cement the Mid-South as a growing hub for AI infrastructure.

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Credit: Governor Tate Reeves/X

Elon Musk’s xAI plans to pour more than $20 billion into a massive new data center campus in Southaven, Mississippi, marking the largest single economic development project in the state’s history. 

The project is expected to create hundreds of permanent jobs, dramatically expand xAI’s computing capacity, and further cement the Mid-South as a growing hub for AI infrastructure.

xAI goes MACROHARDRR in Mississippi

xAI has acquired and is retrofitting an existing facility in Southaven to serve as a new data center, which will be known as “MACROHARDRR.” The site sits near a recently acquired power plant and close to one of xAI’s existing data centers in Tennessee, creating a regional cluster designed to support large-scale AI training and inference. 

Once completed, the Southaven facility is expected to push the company’s total computing capacity to nearly 2 GW, placing it among the most powerful AI compute installations globally. The data center is scheduled to begin operations in February 2026.

Gov. Tate Reeves shared his optimism about the project in a press release. “This record-shattering $20 billion investment is an amazing start to what is sure to be another incredible year for economic development in Mississippi. Today, Elon Musk is bringing xAI to DeSoto County, a project that will transform the region and bring amazing opportunities to its residents for generations. This is the largest economic development project in Mississippi’s history,” he said. 

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xAI’s broader AI ambitions

To secure the investment, the Mississippi Development Authority approved xAI for its Data Center Incentive program, which provides sales and use tax exemptions on eligible computing hardware and software. The City of Southaven and DeSoto County are also supporting the project through fee-in-lieu agreements aimed at accelerating development timelines and reducing upfront costs.

Founded in 2023 by Elon Musk, xAI develops advanced artificial intelligence systems focused on large-scale reasoning and generative applications. Its flagship product, Grok, is integrated with the social media platform X, alongside a growing suite of APIs for image generation, voice, and autonomous agents, including offerings tailored for government use.

Elon Musk highlighted xAi’s growth and momentum in a comment about the matter. “xAI is scaling at an immeasurable pace — we are building our third massive data center in the greater Memphis area. MACROHARDRR pushes our Colossus training compute to ~2GW – by far the most powerful AI system on Earth. This is insane execution speed by xAI and the state of Mississippi. We are grateful to Governor Reeves for his support of building xAI at warp speed,” Musk said. 

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Tesla AI Head says future FSD feature has already partially shipped

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, says that something that was expected with version 14.3 of the company’s Full Self-Driving platform has already partially shipped with the current build of version 14.2.

Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have teased on several occasions that reasoning will be a big piece of future Full Self-Driving builds, helping bring forth the “sentient” narrative that the company has pushed for these more advanced FSD versions.

Back in October on the Q3 Earnings Call, Musk said:

“With reasoning, it’s literally going to think about which parking spot to pick. It’ll drop you off at the entrance of the store, then go find a parking spot. It’s going to spot empty spots much better than a human. It’s going to use reasoning to solve things.”

Musk said in the same month:

“By v14.3, your car will feel like it is sentient.”

Amazingly, Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.2.2, which is the most recent iteration released, is very close to this sentient feeling. However, there are more things that need to be improved, and logic appears to be in the future plans to help with decision-making in general, alongside other refinements and features.

On Thursday evening, Elluswamy revealed that some of the reasoning features have already been rolled out, confirming that it has been added to navigation route changes during construction, as well as with parking options.

He added that “more and more reasoning will ship in Q1.”

Interestingly, parking improvements were hinted at being added in the initial rollout of v14.2 several months ago. These had not rolled out to vehicles quite yet, as they were listed under the future improvements portion of the release notes, but it appears things have already started to make their way to cars in a limited fashion.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad

As reasoning is more involved in more of the Full Self-Driving suite, it is likely we will see cars make better decisions in terms of routing and navigation, which is a big complaint of many owners (including me).

Additionally, the operation as a whole should be smoother and more comfortable to owners, which is hard to believe considering how good it is already. Nevertheless, there are absolutely improvements that need to be made before Tesla can introduce completely unsupervised FSD.

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Tesla’s Elon Musk: 10 billion miles needed for safe Unsupervised FSD

As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.” 

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided an updated estimate for the training data needed to achieve truly safe unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). 

As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.” 

10 billion miles of training data

Musk comment came as a reply to Apple and Rivian alum Paul Beisel, who posted an analysis on X about the gap between tech demonstrations and real-world products. In his post, Beisel highlighted Tesla’s data-driven lead in autonomy, and he also argued that it would not be easy for rivals to become a legitimate competitor to FSD quickly. 

“The notion that someone can ‘catch up’ to this problem primarily through simulation and limited on-road exposure strikes me as deeply naive. This is not a demo problem. It is a scale, data, and iteration problem— and Tesla is already far, far down that road while others are just getting started,” Beisel wrote. 

Musk responded to Beisel’s post, stating that “Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity.” This is quite interesting considering that in his Master Plan Part Deux, Elon Musk estimated that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous driving would require around 6 billion miles. 

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FSD’s total training miles

As 2025 came to a close, Tesla community members observed that FSD was already nearing 7 billion miles driven, with over 2.5 billion miles being from inner city roads. The 7-billion-mile mark was passed just a few days later. This suggests that Tesla is likely the company today with the most training data for its autonomous driving program. 

The difficulties of achieving autonomy were referenced by Elon Musk recently, when he commented on Nvidia’s Alpamayo program. As per Musk, “they will find that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.” These sentiments were echoed by Tesla VP for AI software Ashok Elluswamy, who also noted on X that “the long tail is sooo long, that most people can’t grasp it.”

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