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Elon Musk’s three prerequisites for a new Tesla Model 3 have been met

Musk debuted the production ready Model 3 on June 28 and handed over the first 30 vehicles.

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Elon Musk listed three prerequisites Tesla would have to accomplish before overhauling the Model 3’s design. They have now been met, and with reports of “Project Highland” funneling through the automaker’s future plans, the stage is set for a refresh of the company’s mass-market sedan.

In early 2021, Musk met with industry veteran and “Teardown Titan” Sandy Munro to discuss anything and everything related to Tesla. The meeting was catalyzed by Tesla’s developments in manufacturing efficiency, which was met with compliments and criticism when Munro, a 40+ year veteran of automotive engineering, tore down the Model Y. Questions regarding the Model 3, an obvious sibling of the Model Y, came to the surface, with Munro wondering when the sedan would receive improvements in its build.

The Model 3 was an elementary example of Tesla’s engineering prowess. The vehicle featured a chassis and frame with many parts, a technique that was improved upon with the Model Y. Tesla switched to a more efficient casting design that increased structural rigidity and safety, while eliminating excess parts and decreasing overall production time.

The Model 3 was always set to get these updates, though Musk walked on eggshells committing to when it would actually happen. As a result, Musk laid down a few ground rules that would need to be met before the Model 3 was overhauled and improved.

Musk said:

At some point, we probably will switch to a single-piece casting, but I think we need to get the Texas factory and the Berlin factory going. We do have an issue. It is hard to change the wheels on the bus when it is going 80 MPH down the highway. So, Model 3 is…well, was most of our volume. Model Y will exceed Model 3, but we just need an opportunity to redo the factory without blowing the cash flow of the company.”

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“Project Highland” will reportedly reduce the number of components in the Model 3 while also focusing on improving important technology features, like infotainment.

Tesla developing revamped Model 3 under “Project Highland:” report

Texas and Berlin Factories

Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin were in not yet producing or delivering cars when Musk met with Munro. Tesla was still dependent on just Fremont and Gigafactory Shanghai for its global automotive fulfillment, it had not launched in several countries it recently started delivering cars to, and Texas and Berlin had production start dates far from concrete.

Fast forward to late early December 2022, when reports of “Project Highland” first became public. Texas and Berlin are producing Model Ys, and customer deliveries have been going on for months.

tesla model y production berlin

Tesla Model Y production at Gigafactory Berlin (Credit: Tesla)

While Berlin has been producing cars for a longer period than Texas, both are ramping adequately, according to Tesla’s delivery figures, which have continued to surge the company toward its first million-unit year.

While the production facilities are not fully ramped and have not yet reached full capacity, Musk didn’t say he needed Tesla’s two newest manufacturing plants to be churning out vehicles to their limit. He said they just needed to get them going, and they undoubtedly fit that description.

Model 3 cannot be a majority of Tesla’s volume

The Model 3 was still Tesla’s best-selling vehicle in January 2021, and this would not change in the United States until June 2021 and in China until October 2021.

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While the Model Y was a low-volume vehicle at the time but featured new vehicle technology and manufacturing techniques. The Model 3 was becoming outdated with every Model Y sale, and Musk always said the Y would be Tesla’s best-selling car and perhaps the most popular car on the planet.

It didn’t take long for the Model Y to overtake the Model 3, and now that it has been solidified as Tesla’s global best-selling car, the Model 3 can undergo quite a transformation. Recent images show a Model 3 with various panel covers, hiding what could be anything from new sensor designs, like what was uncovered by Electrek earlier this week, or a new manufacturing design that just isn’t ready to be unveiled quite yet.

It is quite evident the Model 3 is going to face some substantial changes, whether they are cosmetic or not remains to be seen. However, it is no coincidence that Musk’s plan to overhaul the Model 3 has suddenly become a reality as the conditions for a Model 3 overhaul have been met.

Tesla still has not confirmed in any way that it would redesign the vehicle. However, Musk did not deny the Reuters report, as he has publicly done in the past. Earlier this week, we reported Tesla was already preparing Fremont for new Model 3 production lines, and after manufacturer plates were spotted on the partially-hidden Model 3, all indications point toward a newly-realized design heading into 2023.

What do you think Tesla will bring to the table for the Model 3 redesign? If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX reported its third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 20, posting the company’s first solidly profitable quarter since going public earlier in the year under the ticker $SPCX.

Revenue reached $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year-over-year from $5.6 billion, and well ahead of consensus estimates in the $12.7 to $12.9 billion range. The results highlight a rapid shift in SpaceX’s center of gravity toward artificial intelligence/super intelligence, while Starlink and traditional space operations continue to show robust progress.

Here are the key financial results for the quarter:

  • Revenue of $14.58 billion (+161% YoY)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion (+306% YoY)
  • GAAP net income of $4.4 billion (versus a $1.1 billion net loss in the prior-year quarter)
  • Adjusted EPS of approximately $0.35 (versus roughly $0.13–0.16 expected)
  • Income from operations of $2.8 billion

The AI/SI segment generated $7.56 billion in revenue, an 830 percent year-over-year increase, making it the company’s largest segment for the first time. Growth was primarily driven by the activation of major cloud services agreements, the integration of Cursor (acquired earlier in 2026), and rising usage of Grok models and the newly introduced Grok Bot personal agent.

SI adjusted EBITDA reached $5 billion, and nameplate compute capacity stood at 1.7 GW at quarter-end, up from 1.4 GW in June and 0.6 GW a year earlier. Capital expenditures totaled $19.6 billion, with the majority allocated to AI infrastructure, including continued expansion of the Colossus facilities.

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The Connectivity segment, which primarily surrounds Starlink, produced $5.25 billion in revenue, a 69 percent year-over-year and 22 percent sequentially. These are pleasant results to see and expected, considering how many airlines have adopted Starlink over the past year.

Starlink consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, an 89 percent increase from the prior year, and a sequential gain of 1.6 million. Consumer average revenue per user improved to $69. Meanwhile, Enterprise and Government revenue also grew strongly, and Starlink is now installed on more than 3,800 aircraft, making internet more accessible and better performing than previous options.

The Space segment also performed well and contributed $1.77 billion in revenue, up 6 percent year-over-year and 84 percent sequentially. A major milestone was the successful first revenue-generating Starship mission (Flight 14), which deployed 26 V3 Starlink satellites. Those satellites added roughly 10 times the downlink capacity of a typical Falcon 9 Starlink launch.

SpaceX completed 12 customer launches during the quarter, including NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope mission, and continued to grow its backlog of crewed, national security, and commercial flights.

CFO commentary noted that the combination of launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and rapid SI expansion is producing meaningful operating leverage.

The company ended the quarter with roughly $90 billion in cash and marketable securities, providing substantial resources for ongoing investment while targeting an investment-grade balance sheet. Sequential revenue nearly doubled from the $7.81 billion reported in the second quarter, illustrating the pace of the AI-driven acceleration. Things are looking strong for SpaceX.

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What’s incredibly striking is the fact that SI has grown to be larger than the rest of the company in such a short amount of time. CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that Grok Bot is the “fastest-growing product I’ve ever seen,” so it seems that it could be a true keystone of SpaceXSI over the next few years.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX reports its second earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its second public earnings call today since its IPO earlier this year, and there are a few things we expect to hear about, as well as Wall Street analysts, who have already outlined their expectations for the call.

Wall Street analysts have a consensus of $12.72 billion in revenue and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13. These are broken down into three sectors: Space, Connectivity, and AI/SI, which are perceived in this way:

  • Space: $1.41 billion
  • Connectivity: $4.84 billion
  • AI/SI: $6.47 billion

Other outlets cluster near $12.8 or $12.9 billion in revenue and $0.14 – $0.15 EPS. This implies a roughly 65 percent sequential growth from Q2’s $7.81 billion, driven mostly by AI/SI, with the first post-IPO positive EPS expected.

SpaceX just launched its secret Starfall saucer again

Here are the three things to watch for on the call:

AI Revenue Ramp and the $100B+ ARR target

AI is truly the swing factor for SpaceX, and analysts expect it to roughly double from Q2’s $2.56 billion and become about half of total revenue. Management previously guided to a $100 billion+ annualized run rate by December, including the Cursor acquisition, which was $60 billion, to close the quarter.

SpaceX makes first acquisition post-IPO

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Listen for updates on SpaceX’s compute capacity, especially pertaining to its contracts with Google, Anthropic, and others, revenue per watt, any new deals, and Cursor’s early contribution.

Starlink/Connectivity Metrics and Mobile Expansion

Connectivity remains a main profit engine for SpaceX. Subscriber additions will be something to pay attention to, as Q2 ended at 12 million and previews are looking at 14 million for this quarter. Additionally, ARPU trends, enterprise and government growth, and any commentary on Starlink Mobile will be something to pay attention to, especially following the recent low-band spectrum deal and FCC-related constellation approvals.

Capex Trajectory, Cash Burn/FCF, and Starship/Operational Updates

Q2 capex of roughly $18.4 billion weighed on the stock. Investors will look to scrutinize Q3 spending levels, any guidance on the pace into Q4/2027, free cash flow, backlog, and liquidity. Operational color on Starship (Flight 14 milestones and Flight 15 timing/reusability progress), Falcon cadence, and government/NASA contracts are also in focus.

Of course, there will also be some speculation on the potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, but there was nothing mentioned in the company’s proxy it sent earlier this week.

SpaceX will report earnings after market close today and will stream the call on X.

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here

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SpaceX just launched its secret Starfall saucer again

SpaceX launched its Starfall capsule again on Bandwagon-5, this time listed openly beside rideshare customers.

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An artist’s illustration of a SpaceX Starfall capsule reentering Earth’s atmosphere. (Image: SpaceX)
An artist’s illustration of a SpaceX Starfall capsule reentering Earth’s atmosphere. (Image: SpaceX)

SpaceX launched its Starfall reentry capsule for the second time on Tuesday morning, flying it as the payload of the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission. Falcon 9 lifted off from Space Launch Complex 40 in Florida at 7:04 a.m. ET with 32 payloads, and the first stage booster, on its 19th flight, landed on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas about nine minutes later.

Starfall was scheduled to separate last, 2 hours and 48 minutes after liftoff. The final customer satellite on SpaceX’s mission timeline comes off the upper stage about an hour and nine minutes in, which left a long gap before the capsule was due to be released alone. SpaceX later posted that the payload deployment sequence is complete. At liftoff, the company said Starfall “enables affordable, routine access to a microgravity environment, providing unique opportunities for on-orbit manufacturing, scientific research, and testing.”

As Teslarati reported before the first Starfall flight, SpaceX made no public announcement about the vehicle then, and nearly everything known came from FAA and FCC filings. This time Starfall is an item name on the official mission page, listed beside paying rideshare customers. SpaceX has still not said what, if anything, is aboard this Starfall, Spaceflight Now noted.

The FAA’s environmental assessment from May describes a disk about 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall that weighs roughly 4,600 pounds and can bring 2,200 pounds of payload back to Earth.

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Interestingly, the same rocket also carries a competitor’s hardware. Varda Space Industries launched its W-Series 7 capsule on Bandwagon-5, a spacecraft about three times smaller than Starfall that will test whether microgravity can improve the solubility of a cancer drug called Protac. It is Varda’s ninth reentry capsule, and W-8 and W-9 launched earlier this month on Transporter-18. SpaceX has been Varda’s launch provider since the company’s first Falcon 9 rideshare contract in 2021.

SpaceX has not published where or how this Starfall will come down. The preview we ran in June described a recovery from the Pacific Ocean, and the company has not said whether this flight follows the same plan. The launch also arrives hours before SpaceX posts its third quarter results after the market closes, a report we previewed earlier this week.

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