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Elon Musk’s three prerequisites for a new Tesla Model 3 have been met
Elon Musk listed three prerequisites Tesla would have to accomplish before overhauling the Model 3’s design. They have now been met, and with reports of “Project Highland” funneling through the automaker’s future plans, the stage is set for a refresh of the company’s mass-market sedan.
In early 2021, Musk met with industry veteran and “Teardown Titan” Sandy Munro to discuss anything and everything related to Tesla. The meeting was catalyzed by Tesla’s developments in manufacturing efficiency, which was met with compliments and criticism when Munro, a 40+ year veteran of automotive engineering, tore down the Model Y. Questions regarding the Model 3, an obvious sibling of the Model Y, came to the surface, with Munro wondering when the sedan would receive improvements in its build.
The Model 3 was an elementary example of Tesla’s engineering prowess. The vehicle featured a chassis and frame with many parts, a technique that was improved upon with the Model Y. Tesla switched to a more efficient casting design that increased structural rigidity and safety, while eliminating excess parts and decreasing overall production time.
The Model 3 was always set to get these updates, though Musk walked on eggshells committing to when it would actually happen. As a result, Musk laid down a few ground rules that would need to be met before the Model 3 was overhauled and improved.
Musk said:
At some point, we probably will switch to a single-piece casting, but I think we need to get the Texas factory and the Berlin factory going. We do have an issue. It is hard to change the wheels on the bus when it is going 80 MPH down the highway. So, Model 3 is…well, was most of our volume. Model Y will exceed Model 3, but we just need an opportunity to redo the factory without blowing the cash flow of the company.”
“Project Highland” will reportedly reduce the number of components in the Model 3 while also focusing on improving important technology features, like infotainment.
Tesla developing revamped Model 3 under “Project Highland:” report
Texas and Berlin Factories
Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin were in not yet producing or delivering cars when Musk met with Munro. Tesla was still dependent on just Fremont and Gigafactory Shanghai for its global automotive fulfillment, it had not launched in several countries it recently started delivering cars to, and Texas and Berlin had production start dates far from concrete.
Fast forward to late early December 2022, when reports of “Project Highland” first became public. Texas and Berlin are producing Model Ys, and customer deliveries have been going on for months.
Tesla Model Y production at Gigafactory Berlin (Credit: Tesla)
While Berlin has been producing cars for a longer period than Texas, both are ramping adequately, according to Tesla’s delivery figures, which have continued to surge the company toward its first million-unit year.
While the production facilities are not fully ramped and have not yet reached full capacity, Musk didn’t say he needed Tesla’s two newest manufacturing plants to be churning out vehicles to their limit. He said they just needed to get them going, and they undoubtedly fit that description.
Model 3 cannot be a majority of Tesla’s volume
The Model 3 was still Tesla’s best-selling vehicle in January 2021, and this would not change in the United States until June 2021 and in China until October 2021.
While the Model Y was a low-volume vehicle at the time but featured new vehicle technology and manufacturing techniques. The Model 3 was becoming outdated with every Model Y sale, and Musk always said the Y would be Tesla’s best-selling car and perhaps the most popular car on the planet.
It didn’t take long for the Model Y to overtake the Model 3, and now that it has been solidified as Tesla’s global best-selling car, the Model 3 can undergo quite a transformation. Recent images show a Model 3 with various panel covers, hiding what could be anything from new sensor designs, like what was uncovered by Electrek earlier this week, or a new manufacturing design that just isn’t ready to be unveiled quite yet.
It is quite evident the Model 3 is going to face some substantial changes, whether they are cosmetic or not remains to be seen. However, it is no coincidence that Musk’s plan to overhaul the Model 3 has suddenly become a reality as the conditions for a Model 3 overhaul have been met.
Tesla still has not confirmed in any way that it would redesign the vehicle. However, Musk did not deny the Reuters report, as he has publicly done in the past. Earlier this week, we reported Tesla was already preparing Fremont for new Model 3 production lines, and after manufacturer plates were spotted on the partially-hidden Model 3, all indications point toward a newly-realized design heading into 2023.
What do you think Tesla will bring to the table for the Model 3 redesign? If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
