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SpaceX director says six Crew Dragon launches per year is a sustainable goal
A senior manager says that SpaceX could sustainably launch six or more Crew Dragons per year if the market for private missions grows large enough to demand it.
Benji Reed, Senior Director of Human Spaceflight Programs, offered his thoughts on the matter in a press conference following SpaceX’s successfully recovery of Crew Dragon and four private Axiom-1 astronauts from the Gulf of Mexico, marking the end of the first all-private mission to the International Space Station (ISS). Asked what kind of launch cadence SpaceX believes it could handle going forward, Reed stated that he “would love to see…half a dozen crew flights…or more” per year and believes that “SpaceX can sustain that [pace] if there’s a market for it.”
The question is an important one after a SpaceX executive confirmed to Reuters earlier this year that the company has already ended production of Crew Dragon after building just a handful of reusable capsules. With that fleet of four spacecraft, it hasn’t been clear how many crewed missions SpaceX can – or thinks it can – launch each year. To some extent, it’s long been expected that SpaceX would try to replace both Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft with Starship as soon as the next-generation fully-reusable rocket is ready.
However, without major redesigns or a new and heavily modified variant of the rocket’s upper stage, it’s difficult to imagine NASA transitioning its International Space Station astronaut launches from Dragon to Starship anytime soon. Even though Starship could feasibly revolutionize spaceflight and NASA has already contracted with SpaceX to build a version of the rocket to land NASA astronauts on the Moon, the one thing it’s hard to imagine the space agency ever compromising on is safety. Crew Dragon has a built-in launch escape system that allows the capsule to almost instantly whisk astronauts away from a failing rocket at any point before or during a launch.
Starship has no such escape system and SpaceX has no apparent plans to develop a variant of the crew-carrying ship with a comparable abort system. Because the Starship rocket’s second stage is the orbital spacecraft, crew cabin, and reentry vehicle, it simply isn’t possible for the current design of the next-generation vehicle to match the theoretical safety of Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon. CEO Elon Musk has discussed increasing the number of engines on Starship to allow it to escape from a failing booster but that would leave astronauts with no way to escape from the upper stage itself.
On top of Dragon’s fundamentally superior safety capabilities, Falcon 9 also has an extraordinary record of 125 consecutively successful launches. If NASA wouldn’t let Dragon launch its astronauts on Falcon 9 without an active escape system, it’s hard to imagine how many consecutive launch successes Starship would need before the agency would even think about retiring Crew Dragon.
This is all to say that SpaceX is likely going to be stuck operating Crew Dragon for the indefinite future as long as it’s too stubborn to develop a true launch escape system for Starship. Even though the recently announced Polaris Program aims to culminate in the “first flight of Starship with humans on board,” it’s likely that most private SpaceX crew launch customers will follow NASA’s lead.
Thankfully, even with four Crew Dragon capsules, it’s likely that SpaceX can manage significantly more than six crewed missions per year if the demand is there and commercial passengers – mirroring NASA – aren’t ready to risk flying on Starship. Already, SpaceX has successfully launched the same Crew Dragon capsule to orbit twice in 137 days. If SpaceX continues flying back-to-back NASA crew transport missions while Boeing’s Starliner inches through qualification, that will tie up two Dragons per year, limiting SpaceX to two launches for NASA and around four to five private astronaut launches per year.
Assuming Starliner finally reaches operational readiness and begins supporting every other NASA crew launch, SpaceX could feasibly launch one NASA mission and seven private missions (lasting up to two weeks each) per year by the end of 2023. Additionally, if SpaceX can improve Crew Dragon turnaround to 120 days, the fleet could support 10 crew launches per year. 90 days? 13 launches per year. Private missions to the ISS would add plenty of schedule constraints, reducing the total number of opportunities, but that’s a minor problem in comparison.
The only lingering technical concern, then, is the longevity of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule fleet. SpaceX and NASA have initially certified each capsule for five missions, but after Crew-4’s April 27th launch, the fleet has already eaten up 7 of the 20 flights that limit permits. Assuming no additional demand for private launches, the remaining 13 ‘certified’ flights might last SpaceX through 2024. Sooner than later, with NASA’s blessing, it will either need to significantly increase the number of missions each capsule is certified to fly, build new capsules, or find a way to transition to Starship.
News
Tesla’s Hollywood Diner is finally getting close to opening
Tesla’s construction of the Southern California diner, drive-in, and Supercharger hasn’t exactly been quick, but it appears to be getting close to opening.
Tesla looks to be getting closer to opening its highly anticipated diner, drive-in movie theater, and Supercharger location in Southern California, after the company began construction on the project in the latter part of 2023.
On Sunday, X user BLKMDL3 stopped by the Hollywood Tesla Diner location and shared photos of the site, noting that Superchargers are now lit up, parking lots are fully paved, and construction generally appears to be nearing completion. The news comes after Tesla has been building out the site for around 18 months, which many have pointed out is longer than some of the company’s latest production facilities have taken.
Tesla has yet to disclose when it plans to open the Supercharger location, though it appears to be getting closer than ever, at least as far as construction is concerned. The company also included some code related to integration with the diner in its latest version of the Tesla mobile app in January, along with posting its first job listings for the site in August.
You can see the latest progress on the Tesla Diner below, courtesy of X user BLKMDL3.
Credit: BLKMDL3 | X
Credit: BLKMDL3 | X
Credit: BLKMDL3 | X
Looks like the Tesla diner is about to open. This thing took forever to build, but it seems like it's finally happening! ⚡️🔋🚗
Who's gonna drop by here for a quick (or not so quick) charge and bite?🍽️ https://t.co/r1e6mTrlEF
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 21, 2025
READ MORE ON TESLA SUPERCHARGERS: Tesla is building a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country
The user also notes that the adjacent parking lot is being built out to include additional Supercharger stalls, with the actual lots for the diner including around 28 to 32 stalls total, consistent with permits for the project. Next door, the user says the company is building roughly an additional 50 or so stalls, though these aren’t likely to be open when the diner initially opens.
The site is located at 7001 West Santa Monica Boulevard, and according to Elon Musk’s original concepts for the Supercharger discussed on what was then Twitter in 2018, the unique charger is set to include a 1950s-style diner with rock and roll and waiters on roller skates, in addition to drive-in theater screens playing scenes from the best movies in history.
Tesla gained a series of construction permits for the project throughout 2023, before officially beginning construction in September 2023. You can see photos from the site below, taken just weeks after groundbreaking, as well as in January and April of last year.
Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in November 2023
Credit: Ed Howard | X
Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in January 2024
Credit: Fox 11 Los Angeles
Credit: ShorealoneFilms | X
Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in April 2024
Credit: 247Tesla | YouTube
Credit: 247Tesla | YouTube
Tesla exec highlights advantages of prefabricated Superchargers
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Tesla building apparent Cybercab castings ahead of launch
Tesla has been producing what look like some Cybercab castings at Giga Texas, as spotted this week ahead of the vehicle’s upcoming launch.
Tesla’s Gigafactory in Texas is building what appear to be castings for the upcoming Cybercab, ahead of the vehicle’s launch and the highly anticipated debut of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD).
On Monday, Tesla Giga Texas site observer Joe Tegtmeyer shared photos on X of some unique castings out beside the factory. Notably, Tegtmeyer points out that the castings are quite different from those of the Model Y and Cybertruck, which are currently the only two vehicles being produced at the Austin, Texas plant—at least publicly.
Some viewers noted that the castings appear to have a similar shape to the Cybercab, along with being one single casting, compared to the two-piece Giga casts the factory produces for the Model Y and Cybertruck. The shape appears to be consistent with Tesla’s unboxed production process, which is expected to build single-piece castings and will be used for the upcoming Cybercab.
You can see Tegtmeyer’s photos of the castings below, in comparison with the Cybercab body and castings for the Model Y and Cybertruck.
Giga Texas castings April 21, 2025, compared to Cybercab
Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X
Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X
Giga Texas Model Y rear casting
Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X
Giga Texas Cybertruck castings
Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X
🎥: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024
READ MORE ON TESLA’S GIGA TEXAS: Tesla Cybercab no longer using chase vehicles in Giga Texas
In March, Tesla Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy confirmed in an interview with manufacturing expert Sandy Munro that Cybercab production would be starting prototype builds this summer, while the automaker is aiming to ramp for volume production in 2026.
While it isn’t summer yet, executives also confirmed in January that Cybercab production lines were already being prepared at Giga Texas, so it’s not unlikely that these castings are some of the upcoming vehicle’s first prototype builds.
The unboxed production process is also expected to revolutionize the automotive manufacturing industry, with CEO Elon Musk emphasizing how different the production line looks compared to its past vehicles during the Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting. Instead, Musk says the production line appears more like a high-speed consumer electronics line, and it’s expected to push Cybercab builds out in less than five seconds.
In a post on X earlier this month, Musk also reiterated that the Cybercab production line and the factory in general are essentially the products on their own, rather than just the cars themselves.
“The Tesla factory, especially our next gen Cybercab line, is the product,” Musk said. “That, autonomy and Optimus, are what matter.”
Tesla is also aiming to launch its first commercial robotaxi services around Austin, Texas this summer, along with launching its first iterations of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised. The company is also holding its Q1 earnings call on Tuesday, during which executives are expected to address questions about the Cybercab and the upcoming commercial robotaxi service.
Tesla’s Giga Texas vehicles now drive themselves to outbound lot
Elon Musk
Tesla sits at a ‘crossroads,’ Wedbush says by listing six negatives
Wedbush is still bullish on Tesla, but says Elon Musk needs to make a choice between DOGE and the car company.
According to Wedbush, Tesla is sitting at a “crossroads” as it nears its Q1 2025 Earnings Call on Tuesday.
Although the company’s Earnings Calls have been primarily focused on the financials and accomplishments of the past quarter, Tesla is approaching this one differently.
Tesla has even said that this Earnings Call will feature a “company update,” and as most believe it will detail plans for future models and production timelines, others have different expectations and beliefs over what could be said.
Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25
Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes Tesla is at a crossroads and outlined his six biggest concerns for the company since CEO Elon Musk took on a role within the White House at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE):
- Tesla has now unfortunately become a political symbol globally of the Trump Administration/DOGE
- Tesla’s stock has been crushed since Trump stepped back into the White House
- Brand damage to Musk/Tesla resulted in a terrible 1Q delivery number, with much lower 2025 deliveries on the horizon
- Protests and violence against Tesla dealerships/owners have erupted around the globe
- 25% auto tariffs have been enacted, delaying future lower-cost models for Tesla, even though Musk is vocally against the tariffs for obvious reasons
- Potentially 15%-20% permanent demand destruction for future Tesla buyers due to the brand damage Musk has created with DOGE
Ives has held onto the idea that Musk’s involvement has made Tesla synonymous with the Trump administration, but that only seems to be true for those who share ideologies that oppose what the White House is doing.
Others are able to differentiate between the two, noting that Tesla is not a Trump organization, and vice versa.
Of course, there are negative sides to Musk splitting his time between the two and having ties to the President. Politically, it is hard to appease everyone.
Despite this, Wedbush’s Ives said the firm still remains bullish on Tesla:
“So why stay bullish? It’s a great question. We believe Tesla along with Nvidia are two of the most disruptive technology companies on the globe over the coming years. The unparalleled innovation, engineering scale, autonomous roadmap, and robotics future will unleash massive valuation upside over the coming years in our view. BUT….Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time. Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing….spend some time speaking to car buyers in the US, Europe, and Asia…you will think differently after those discussions.”
Ives said that Musk needs to lay out the timing and rollout plans for the unsupervised Full Self-Driving and for the affordable vehicle platform, which was set for release in the first half of the year.
Tesla’s Hollywood Diner is finally getting close to opening
Tesla building apparent Cybercab castings ahead of launch
Tesla sits at a ‘crossroads,’ Wedbush says by listing six negatives
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