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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spaceship marches towards launch with vacuum chamber test
SpaceX has published the latest photo of its next-generation Crew Dragon spacecraft, showing the crewed vehicle preparing to be put through its paces inside a NASA thermal vacuum chamber located in Cleveland, Ohio. If the tests are completed without issue, the Dragon’s next destination will be Cape Canaveral, Florida, where it will prepare for an inaugural launch targeted for the fourth quarter of 2018.
In the photo released on June 20th, SpaceX’s DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule (C202 in shorthand: [C]apsule, Dragon [2], serial number [02]) is seen being craned by SpaceX technicians into the thermal vacuum chamber at NASA’s Plum Brook testing facilities. Located in Ohio, Plum Brook’s vacuum chamber is unique because of both its size and its ability to fairly accurate replicate the actual environment faced by satellites and spacecraft once in space. Most importantly, this includes the extreme thermal conditions those vehicles are subjected to by constant ~90-minute day-night cycles in low Earth orbit (LEO).
Without Earth’s cozy atmosphere to act as both a heat sink and insulating blanket once on orbit, there is simply nothing there to protect spacecraft like Crew Dragon from the absolute extremes of direct solar radiation (sunlight), total darkness, and a complete lack of cooling by conduction and convection. In order to avoid overheating, Crew Dragon thus needs to bring along its own means of cooling in the form of onboard radiators to shed excess heat. The use of white paint on spacecraft further aids this process by selectively preventing the absorption of solar radiation while simultaneously efficiently emitting in infrared wavelengths.
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- SpaceX’s Demo Mission-1 Crew Dragon seen preparing for vacuum tests at a NASA-run facility, June 2018. (SpaceX)
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- The DM-1 Crew Dragon testing inside SpaceX’s anechoic chamber, May 2018. (SpaceX)
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- An overview of Crew Dragon’s main features, all of which can be seen in the real-life photos. The Cargo Dragon version will likely remove seats and windows. (SpaceX)
How to prep your Dragon
Crew Dragon’s primary radiators are elegantly integrated into vertical panels installed on the cylindrical bottom segment, known as the trunk, while the craft’s power source – solar panels in this case – are installed in a curved array on the opposite side of the trunk. Intriguingly, the trunks displayed in the two most recent photos of the DM-1 Crew Dragon appear to be almost completely different, and the trunk at Plum Brook does not appear to have its solar arrays or radiators installed. Nominally, SpaceX would use the thermal vacuum capabilities of the Ohio facility to fully vet Crew Dragon’s ability to maintain optimal temperatures on orbit, but the particularly tests planned for the DM-1 capsule and trunk may be of a slightly different type.
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- On February 28, SpaceX completed a demonstration of their ability to recover the crew and capsule after a nominal water splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of Florida. (SpaceX)
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- Astronaut Bob Behnken examines a sample of Crew Dragon docking and crew transfer hardware, the mechanisms that will allow the spacecraft to dock with the International Space Station and allow crew to enter the orbital outpost. Taken March 2017. (SpaceX)
Regardless, after testing at Plum Brook is completed, the DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule will be shipped to a newly-constructed processing facility in Cape Canaveral, Florida, while it’s understood that the trunk installed in SpaceX’s June 20th photo will be returned to the Hawthorne, CA factory to be outfitted with flight hardware (presumably including cameras, radiators, solar arrays, and a healthy amount of insulation). It’s unclear when the two segments of DM-1 will part ways and head on to their next destinations, but it’s likely that testing at Plum Brook will last for at least a handful of weeks.
Birds of a feather
In the meantime, several additional Crew Dragon capsules/trunks and the Falcon 9 Block 5 rockets that will launch them are in a variety of states of fabrication and assembly at SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory. B1051, the Block 5 booster assigned to the first uncrewed Demo-1 launch of Crew Dragon, was reported by NASA to be undergoing propellant tank integration in March 2018, implying that the rocket should be at or near the final stages of integration, and will likely ship to McGregor, Texas for static fire testing late this summer.
As of June 15th, SpaceX’s third Falcon 9 Block 5 booster was vertical on the Texas test stand, likely nearing its own static fire test before being shipped to SpaceX’s Vandenberg Air Force Base launch facilities for the July 20th launch of Iridium-7. While possible that a booster slipped past the watchful eyes and ears of SpaceX enthusiast observers, it’s probable that the rocket currently in McGregor is B1048, implying that a minimum of two additional booster shipments and Texas test programs remain before B1051 can be prepped to launch SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon mission. At the current marginally accelerated booster production and shipment schedule (~ 30-day cadence), B1051 would be expected to leave Hawthorne for Texas no earlier than (NET) late August or early September. This meshes with a recent comment from Commercial Crew astronaut Suni Williams:
“I think we’re going to get the [uncrewed[ demo flights probably by the end of the year, maybe a little after that . . . and then the crew demo missions next year.”
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- Falcon 9 Block 5 completed its first launch on May 11, carrying the Bangabandhu-1 communications satellite to geostationary transfer orbit. (Tom Cross)
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- SpaceX’s second Block 5 booster was spotted vertical at the company’s McGregor, TX testing facilities. That booster has since been shipped to Florida for a mid-July launch, with B1048 now in its place as of June 15. (Aero Photo)
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- A matte-silver Block 5 Merlin 1D rocket engine seen preparing to leave SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory for testing in Texas. (SpaceX)
Anticipating acceptance and prelaunch testing that is far more extensive and time-consuming than typically seen with SpaceX’s commercial missions, it’s safe to bet that the first uncrewed Crew Dragon mission – DM-1 – will launch from Kennedy Space Center in November or December 2018. While those operations proceed over the course of the rest of this year, SpaceX expects roughly 10 additional Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches to occur. It’s gonna be a busy H2.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
