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Tesla gets generous price target projection from ARK without several crucial factors

Credit: Tesla

Published

10 months ago

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Tesla got a new, generous price target projection from analyst Cathie Wood and her firm ARK Invest, even though it left out several massive factors.

According to ARK’s latest Tesla projection report, which was released on Wednesday, the firm expects the company’s value to swell to $2,600 per share, with a bull case of potentially $3,100 and a bear case of $2,000.

“ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029, as shown below. Meanwhile, electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, as we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins. The charts below break down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value by business line,” its analysis breakdown said.

It is important to note ARK Invest has been particularly bullish on Tesla and its business model for some time. However, it was sure to note that in its latest projections, it did not factor in robotics, as Tesla continues to develop its Optimus Bot and recently stated it has been using it in Gigafactory Texas.

ARK broadened this idea in its report:

“We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of robots that move through physical space, as it will have the opportunity to leverage learnings from robotaxis as well as its in-house inference chips, training compute, and manufacturing scale. Tesla expects Optimus to be completing useful factory tasks by year end. Assuming that it were able to subsume 10-20% of Tesla’s labor hours worked with productivity equal to or twice that of its human counterparts, Optimus could save Tesla $3-4 billion, or 1-2% in manufacturing costs, in 2029.”

In fact, the largest single factor in its analysis is that of the Robotaxi, which accounts for the vast majority of the breakdowns ARK illustrated for Revenue, EBITDA, and Enterprise Value:

There are several things ARK left out of its analysts, and a few of them are arguably groundbreaking and could potentially have a major impact on Tesla’s business in the future:

  • Tesla Semi – ARK does not believe the Tesla Semi will “contribute significantly” to the company’s value within the five-year investment time horizon
  • Supercharging Network – Tesla Superchargers are “unlikely to generate significant revenue,” although they are essential for EVs
  • FSD Licensing – Non-Tesla FSD vehicles are unlikely to debut within the five-year timeframe
  • AI-As-A-Service – AI-inference-as-a-service and Dojo training-as-a-service is “probably” outside the five-year timeframe

You can read ARK’s full report here.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations

Published

7 hours ago

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April 1, 2025

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”

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It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.

Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.

However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:

“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”

Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.

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He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:

“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”

The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.

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Elon Musk

Tesla is testing a Model 3 with some mysterious cameras in the U.S.

Published

8 hours ago

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April 1, 2025

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Credit: u/Ready_Medium_6693

Tesla is testing a Model 3 with some mysterious cameras, potentially hinting toward the imminent release of the Cybercab and robotaxi platform in the United States.

After Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in Los Angeles in early October, the company suggested that it would be on its way to launching driverless rides in the U.S. in the near future.

Now, Tesla is inching toward a driverless ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, among some other potential locations, but it is still working toward a platform that is robust enough to handle it.

Although the company’s Full Self-Driving suite is one of the more advanced on the market, Tesla is still working to accomplish what it feels is a mode of transportation that is safer than a human driver. The robotaxi and Cybercab rollouts will likely accomplish that, but there is still work to be done beforehand.

Now, Tesla is testing a Model 3 in the U.S. that was spotted in several different locations in the Northeastern part of the country, as cameras are seen on this vehicle in locations that are not necessarily typical for what it offers currently:

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Another one is seen here:

Interestingly, we saw similar camera locations on the Cybercab at the event in October. Tesla is not testing the Cybercab but instead implementing these cameras on a comparable position on its other vehicles.

These are the cameras we spotted on the Cybercab at the event in October:

In the past, Tesla has used a variety of strategies to measure self-driving accuracy, including LiDAR, which has been seen on some testing mules that we have spotted out in public.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that the company does not need LiDAR on testing mules for ground truth, but we still spot them from time to time on public roads.

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It’s an appropriate way just to cross Ts and dot Is:

Tesla Model X testing mule spotted with LiDAR rig ahead of Robotaxi event

The company is still moving toward that initial rollout of driverless ride-hailing in Austin in June, and some company executives have stated that the Cybercab will be the vehicle it uses for these initial rides.

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Elon Musk

Tesla adds security feature to Android with latest software update

Published

9 hours ago

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April 1, 2025

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Credit: @greggertruck/X

Tesla is bolstering its release of features to Android users as it is rolling out some new things with its latest software update.

Update v4.43.5 will see Tesla add a Dashcam Viewer for Android phones, a new feature that will make it simpler to access and manage both Dashcam and Sentry Mode videos. This has been available to iPhone users for some time, but Android owners have not had access to this quite yet.

Tesla describes the release of the feature in release notes (via Not a Tesla App):

“The Dashcam Viewer is now available in the Tesla app for Android users.

The Dashcam Viewer makes it easy to access and manage your car’s Dashcam and Sentry Mode videos. Accessing videos on your phone is faster and more convenient, but it does come with a few requirements.

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The Dashcam Viewer in the Tesla app allows you to view, delete, or save video clips right from your device. This should result in higher quality content being shared online and fewer videos of owners recording their Tesla’s screens with their phones.”

The feature creates a more convenient option to view things that your Tesla has captured on its dashcam or on its external cameras through Sentry Mode, its security camera system that records things that happen around the vehicle.

Sentry Mode has been a great addition for Tesla owners lately, as more and more instances of vandalism have been occurring in the past few months.

It seems Tesla might have made it a point to roll this feature out, especially as it would allow those who are getting Sentry Mode alerts to capture footage of keying or tire slashing, two common techniques used by those who dislike Tesla and/or Elon Musk.

Tesla quietly added this extra Sentry Mode feature to deter vandals

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The last time Tesla rolled out some features to Android owners was in January when it beefed up offerings for those who do not use iOS. The January update saw Phone Key Improvements and Hands-Free Trunk Opening make their way to Android users.

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