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Tesla Model S, X with “Hardware 3” for Full Self-Driving now in production, inventory codes indicate

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Tesla has begun producing Model X and Model S vehicles with the latest Autopilot hardware to support Full Self-Driving capabilities. Dubbed “HW3”, the new hardware is Tesla’s next iteration of its semi-autonomous driving-assist feature that includes Navigate on Autopilot, Advanced Summon, Auto Lane Change, Autopark, and the ability to respond to traffic lights.

Looking at the source code behind Tesla’s New Inventory site, we’re able to see that recently produced Model S and Model X with Autopilot have been given an “APH4” options code, signifying that these vehicles are equipped with the latest Full Self-Driving hardware. Tesla uses the option code sequence “APHx” to denote the type of Autopilot hardware installed in its vehicles. APH2 indicates HW2 and APH3 = HW2.5 (Autopilot 2.5). Thus, APH4 is HW3.

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of two 2019 Model S with and without the new Hardware 3 for Autopilot.

Source: Tesla New Inventory listing

The tip comes to us from Tesla Info and Inventory, a web site which compiles inventory data for Tesla vehicles around the world, noted that internal vehicle “option codes” indicated a change from Hardware 2.5 to Hardware 3. The site pulls source data directly from Tesla’s car listing pages and analyzes the “config” data embedded in the HTML to determine this information.

This discovery aligns with the schedule for the HW3 installs previously set forth by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Last October, Musk estimated a 6-month wait before the the new chips would be installed in all new production cars, meaning an April showing.

Musk has touted HW3 as the “world’s most advanced computer designed specifically” for the purpose of self-driving functionality, with Tesla holding a notable lead in the field overall. “If you add everyone else up combined, they’re probably 5% — I’m being generous — of the miles that Tesla has. And this difference is increasing,” Musk said in Tesla’s 2018 Q4 earnings call.

For vehicles without HW3 installed at the time of manufacture, Musk has stressed the simplicity of the upgrade process in Tesla’s 2018 Q2 earnings call. “We take out one computer and plug in the next. That’s it. All the connectors are compatible and you get an order of magnitude, more processing and you can run all the cameras at primary full resolution with the complex neural net.”

The simple upgrade to HW3 does require Tesla cars to have HW2 as the equipment needed for its functionality was included in those vehicles. The software uses an array of 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and a forward-facing radar paired with Tesla’s vision and neural net system.

2019 Tesla Model X with Hardware 3

The first features of the Full Self-Driving suite were included in the Version 9 software released in October. “Navigate on Autopilot”, an active guidance feature with Autosteer for highway driving (with driver supervision) came soon after with the release of HW2.5. Improvement in performance from software Version 8.1. to 9.0 was increased by about 400% in useful operations per second; however, the difference between V9.0 and HW3 will make a difference of 500-2000%, according to Musk. Tesla has been releasing iterative over-the-air updates over the last year in preparation for the coming HW3 and complete FSD capabilities.

The current iteration of Tesla’s FSD capabilities includes core highway navigation, autopark, and Summon for car retrieval in parking lots. Recognition of traffic signs and signals as well as city street driving are expected to be coming later this year.

Now that HW3 is on its way to current and future Tesla customers, Full Self-Driving certainly feels right around the corner. However, the biggest obstacle to full implementation still sits on the regulation side, a time-consuming yet necessary part of the consumer vehicle industry, especially when a company is handing over responsibility to a computer. Tesla’s Autopilot page still references full self-driving capabilities as something “in the future” that may happen after regulatory approval which “may take longer in some jurisdictions.”

Tesla’s dominance in the all-electric market will most likely work in its favor to overcome the legal hurdles in the way of autonomous driving. As sales continue to rise with the growing number of customers now able to meet more affordable price points, Tesla will keep accumulating useful data to hone its FSD software and make the case for its much-safer-than-humans capabilities. Other companies may have long been battling the same regulatory demons Tesla is now up against, but the electric car was also “killed off” prior to their very influential arrival on the market. In “Musk World”, there is improbable, but not often impossible.

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Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

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Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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