Investor's Corner
Tesla registers 6,100 new Model 3 VINs amid continued production push
Tesla has registered 6,160 new Model 3 VINs, amid the company’s continued production ramp for the compact electric car. With the latest batch of new vehicle identification numbers, Tesla has filed a total of 62,557 Model 3 to date.
The recent registrations were shared on Twitter by @Model3VINs, a group that tracks Tesla’s filings for the vehicle. According to the group, the latest batch of Model 3 VINs comprised of Long Range RWD cars — a stark contrast to the 2,237 vehicle identification numbers registered by the company last week, which were largely dual motor AWD.
#Tesla registered 6,160 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 62557. https://t.co/qZjb57aSMM
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) July 1, 2018
Tesla’s VIN registrations for the Model 3 had seen a meteoric rise since May, when the electric car and energy company started filing large batches of the vehicle identification numbers. In May, for example, Tesla registered more than 17,900 new Model 3 VINs — a figure that took the company until March 23 to accomplish since starting the car’s production last July 2017.
-->Particularly impressive this past June, however, were VIN batches that corresponded to filings for the dual motor AWD variant of the compact electric car. Earlier this year, Elon Musk announced on Twitter that Tesla would probably start production of the dual motor AWD and Performance Model 3 sometime in July, when the company has attained a steady production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week. Midway through last month, however, Musk revealed on Twitter that the first Model 3 Performance has rolled off from a newly-built assembly line, which was set up in a sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory.
The latest Model 3 VIN registrations come amid Tesla’s announcement that it has effectively hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week. The milestone, which has eluded Tesla since the vehicle started production last year, was teased over the last few weeks of June. In the weeks leading up to the end of Q2 2018, for one, sightings of overflow lots filled with Model 3 were shared by Tesla enthusiasts online. Tweets from workers at Fremont and Gigafactory 1 also teased that the company would hit its target by the end of the quarter.
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- [Credit: Tesla Daily/Twitter]
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- [Credit: The Tesla Life/Twitter]
Even before Elon Musk confirmed the news on Twitter, social media posts from the company’s workers in Fremont teased that the 5,000-a-week Model 3 target had been achieved. Among these was a photograph of a banner being signed by workers at the Fremont factory with the words “Model 3 5K Club” on it. Pictures of workers celebrating at the factory grounds and a Model 3 labeled as “5000th” also made the rounds in social media. Not long after this, Elon Musk himself congratulated the Tesla team on Twitter for producing 7,000 vehicles in one week. A leaked email from Musk later specified that the 7,000-vehicle output was comprised of 5,000 Model 3 and 2,000 Model S and Model X.
7000 cars, 7 days
♥️ Tesla Team ♥️— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2018
The announcement of Tesla’s production milestone for the Model 3 appears to have provided a boost to investors’ sentiments. As of writing, Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are trading up 6.28% during pre-market, at $365.44 per share.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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