Tesla saw a notable jump in weekly new vehicle registrations in China, with 17,300 units recorded from September 15 to 21.

The figure marked a 12.7% increase from the previous week’s 15,350 units and represented the highest weekly total in the past 12 weeks. 

Model Y still leads the momentum

The Model Y continued to be Tesla’s best-selling vehicle in China, with 10,340 registrations during the week. Tesla’s recently introduced Model Y L, an extended wheelbase, six-seat variant that launched on August 19, contributed 850 units as deliveries began earlier this month. The Model 3 sedan added 6,060 registrations.

Tesla China noted that customers ordering the Model Y L today can expect deliveries to begin in November, hinting at the strong demand for the newly released vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.

Tesla China’s quarterly performance

Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 57,152 units in August, down 9.9% compared with the 63,456 units from the same month last year but up 40.7% from July’s 40,617 units, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Quarter to date, Tesla’s insurance registrations are up 33.2% sequentially but remain 7.8% lower year-over-year.

Despite Tesla China’s year-to-date numbers still being 5.9% lower than the previous year’s figures, it is difficult not to be impressed with the company’s momentum this Q3 2025. With Model Y L production likely picking up steam soon, the trend of the company’s new vehicle registrations in China may very well prove to be quite interesting in the coming quarter.

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

Similar insights

Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.

Tesla has bolstered its Referral Program by offering more significant benefits for both the referrer and the referee. However, it only applies to certain vehicles in the Tesla lineup.

The Tesla Referral Program offers benefits to both car buyers and existing Tesla owners, including complimentary Full Self-Driving trials, free Supercharging miles, and discounts on select purchases, such as cars.

It changes relatively frequently, and is a great way to encourage people to buy a new car. Tesla is routinely making adjustments to it to stimulate demand, but the referral program likely does not encourage too many sales. Instead, it’s more of a reward for the referrer.

However, the latest adjustments are more substantial for both the buyer and the owner, offering pretty sizeable discounts on the purchase price of a Model S, Model X, or Cybertruck.

There are also discounts for current owners, giving them money off of all five Tesla vehicles.

Here’s the rundown of the new Referral Program awards:

• You’ll earn $250 in Tesla Credits for each person you refer who takes delivery of a new Tesla
• The first 10 people who order a new Model S, Model X, or Cybertruck using your referral link and take delivery will receive $1,000 off their purchase
• When you purchase a new Model S, Model X, or Cybertruck for yourself, you’ll get $1,000 off
• When you purchase a new Model 3 or Model Y, you’ll get $500 off
• Limited to 10 awards

Tesla changed the referral program slightly for those using your code! pic.twitter.com/JBFzKlxsJg

— David Lescatre Jr (@DavidLescatreJr) September 21, 2025

This is a pretty big discount as $1,000 off a Model S, Model X, or Cybertruck is a nice benefit to three of Tesla’s most expensive vehicles.

The additional $500 off a Model 3 or Model Y is also a nice cushion. A similar Referral Program was launched by Tesla last August.