Investor's Corner
Is the trucking industry ready for Tesla? Experts weigh in
When Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla will unveil an electric semi-truck in September, many in the trucking industry, and even Wall Street, took notice.
Electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of the entire trucking market by 2020, but the EV trucking industry will grow to 10 percent just a decade later, according IHS Markit, an industry research firm. The percentages of all-electric trucks abroad will be slightly higher, with markets like the European Union, Japan, and China taking the lead.
“There is a certain amount of hype to Tesla’s announcement,” said Antti Lindstrom, an analyst at IHS Markit. “It doesn’t seem that long-distance trucking is ready for electrification right now.”
What will Tesla need to do to create a viable long-haul all-electric trucking industry?
Obstacles that Tesla will need to overcome for all-electric trucking success
Of all the freight transported in America, 70% is transported by the trucking industry, according to Apex Capital. Yet, if Tesla is to break into the trucking industry with all-electric vehicles, it will need to overcome a number of barriers.
Price is probably the number one factor of concern for all-electric long-haul trucks, as an all-electric semi- compared with a diesel truck will likely be much more expensive. “Tesla cars don’t need to prove an economic case to their buyers; Tesla trucks will,” Michael Baudendistel, a Stifel Financial Corp. analyst, wrote in a recent investor report. Yes, Teslas have been targeted thus far to a wealthy segment of the population, but, just as that will change with the introduction of the Model 3, so, too, can Tesla design a reasonably priced big rig when fuel versus charging costs are taken into consideration.
Tesla would have to create a marketplace for electric trucks. “Given the happily consolidated nature of the domestic truck manufacturing market, the prospect of a new competitive threat, from a company with previous success in disrupting established industries nonetheless, is undoubtedly unwelcomed news,” states Baudendistel. This year, however, Mercedes-Benz Trucks is bringing the world´s first all-electric heavy-duty truck to market in a small release. Moreover, Piper Jaffray analyst, Alex Potter, released a note this week revealing that he was downgrading the engine and truck manufacturers Cummins and Paccar — partly as a response to Tesla’s impending semi truck reveal. With Tesla’s proven history, the trucking sector can’t be that far behind for the company. Indeed, as early as 2011, Tesla was invited to testify at the Congressional hearing titled, “The American Energy Initiative.” Tesla spoke then about the need and timing for alternative energy vehicles, especially those powered by electricity. Tesla demonstrated how an entrenched culture like that of the U.S. automaker could be disrupted; trucking manufacturers today have every right to be paying attention.
-
“We have intentionally departed from the traditional automotive industry model by both focusing exclusively on electric powertrain technology and owning our vehicle sales and service network… If, however, you believe in the power of American innovation to fundamentally change and improve our individual lives and our larger societal interests, then there is no question the time is right to step up and support the development of a viable EV market in the U.S. and to encourage in word and deed the American companies fighting to establish EVs in the marketplace.”
Where would all-electric trucks go for service and repair? “This has been an inconvenience for Tesla cars,” Baudendistel told Trucks.com. “For trucks, though, if the wheels ain’t turnin’, you ain’t earnin’.” Tesla has demonstrated its ability to respond to current owner needs as they became apparent. As early as 2015, the company won an automotive repair satisfaction survey. It launched a Mobile Tire Service program to better serve owners who end up on the side of the road with a flat tire. In anticipation of the Model 3 release, Tesla will be expanding its mobile service capability to include sending technicians to an owner’s home or office for minor repairs. Tesla has the capacity to create a comparable response service and repair program for long-haul all-electric trucks.
The highway charging network for heavy-duty vehicles does not exist; there is no place to charge a long-haul electric truck. “You can’t put the cart before the horse,” Baudendistel said. “Widespread adoption hinges on the availability of fueling stations, and the infrastructure built for Tesla autos was not designed for Class 8 trucks.” Electric trucks currently in use for redistributing cargo require a far smaller range than a long-haul big rig and can be recharged at a central facility. They don’t require a network of charging stations along the nation’s highways. But with the vast Supercharger network that Tesla already has in place, it seems sensible to assume that Tesla would provide adequate comparable charging for fleets of all-electric trucks.
Yes, at this time, recharging electric vehicles is time consuming. “Battery swapping and refueling overnight are both options which would require significant additional investment in infrastructure and logistics,” Baudendistel said. Tesla considered but then discarded the idea of battery swapping with its electric cars. However, with the Electrify America initiative that Volkswagen is spearheading as a result of its diesel malfeasance court settlement, recharging times may drop considerably and quickly as R&D expands. Additionally, unlike an all-electric bus, with its long wheelbase and battery storage underneath, wouldn’t the height and breadth of a semi-truck be the right design for a battery pack that is replaced at a convenient stopping point? Tesla may reconsider battery swapping if the contextual conditions are right.
The trucking industry has expressed concern that batteries needed to power a semi- would be heavy, take up cargo room, and compromise range. Daniel Murray, vice president of research for the American Trucking Research Institute, told Trucks.com, “No one has clarified for us how much extra battery weight will accrue, which, of course, decreases revenue weight.” Baudendistel added, “We believe at least 600-800 miles of range is needed for the truck to be competitive in the line-haul market. We have heard indications that the Tesla semi’s range will be 200-300 miles, which would limit its addressable market.” Just this month, however, Panasonic’s President Kazuhiro Tsuga admitted the battery trade-off between energy density and safety is prodding his company, which partners with Tesla, to look at alternative battery power sources. And this year’s Battery Symposium in Japan, once a showcase for fuel cells and LIB cathode materials, saw a shift to discussions about solid-state, lithium-air, and non-Li-ion batteries. Thus, the current state of batteries for all-electric vehicles may look entirely different in a decade and may fit the needs of Tesla all-electric long haul transportation.
Diesel fuel is inexpensive these days, which limits the costs associated with current big rig transport. “The very low fuel prices we see now and will for a long time are making most alternative-fuel vehicles appear to be very expensive,” Murray said. That perspective may be a bit short-sighted, however, as, in August 2016, the EPA and NHTSA jointly finalized standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles through model year 2027. They are intended to improve fuel efficiency, cut carbon pollution, reduce the impacts of climate change, bolster energy security, and spur manufacturing innovation. Clearly, these are comparable goals to Tesla’s as outlined in the 2016 Master Plan Part Deux. Evolution toward all-electric long-haul transportation as spearheaded by Tesla may fulfill many of the upcoming standards so that fossil fuel costs become irrelevant.
Elon Musk as the world’s biggest advocate of electric-powered transportation
Yes, there are many reasons why an all-electric Tesla long-haul truck will be difficult to integrate into the current transportation sector. Then again, as Baudendistel concedes, “If nothing else, Elon Musk—and by extension, Tesla—is a great disrupter.” Tesla’s innovations, from company-owned stores, over-the-air vehicle updates, and autonomous driving features, to name just three, have forced the automotive and technology industries to new levels. So, although many in the trucking industry are skeptical, it has rarely been wise to bet against Elon Musk.
-
“We are keeping a watchful eye on Tesla as a new entrant,” Baudendistel admits. Even with obstacles to be overcome, he says, “Still, we wouldn’t count Tesla out long-term.”
-
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
-
CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX and Nvidia team up on Musk’s orbital AI bet
SpaceX revealed a new Nvidia satellite partnership, then Musk pledged an exclusive Nvidia hardware commitment.
SpaceX and Nvidia are now working together on the hardware that will power Musk’s orbital data center ambitions. SpaceX announced on X on Tuesday that it is partnering with Nvidia to design the compute payload for Starmind AI1, the first satellite in a planned constellation built to run AI workloads directly in orbit. Each Starmind satellite will carry Nvidia’s Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, according to the post, which included renderings of the payload design.
The announcement landed hours before SpaceX’s first earnings call as a public company, where Musk went further, saying the company has committed to building its AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia hardware. “We think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture. We think it’s the best AI computer, and we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on many levels with Nvidia,” Musk told investors on the call,. “So we’re exclusive to Nvidia.”
Musk said SpaceX plans to deploy Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72 rackscale system, codenamed Kyber, both on the ground and in space. He set a target of 2 gigawatts of compute capacity online by the end of this year, scaling to roughly 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027.
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Starmind has been in development since Musk confirmed the name in June, following an xAI trademark filing that tipped off the project before SpaceX made it official. The idea is massive in scope and instead of moving data down to ground based servers, satellites equipped with onboard processors and large solar arrays would compute AI workloads in orbit and beam results back to Earth. SpaceX has already filed with the FCC for a constellation of up to one million satellites to support the effort, citing constant solar power and the absence of zoning restrictions as advantages over terrestrial data centers.
The Nvidia exclusivity marks a shift in tone from just two weeks ago, when Musk was busy knocking down a report that SpaceX had ordered $52 billion worth of Nvidia GPUs through Foxconn, calling it fake news at the time. The dollar figure in that rumor may have been wrong, but the underlying direction seems correct. SpaceX’s AI division already leases Colossus compute capacity to Anthropic and Google, and Tuesday’s earnings report showed AI revenue climbing sharply as those deals ramp up.
Nvidia shares rose roughly 3% in Tuesday trading on the news, while SpaceX stock climbed nearly 9% during the day before giving back gains after hours as investors digested the earnings report’s capital spending figures.
-
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) reported a beat in revenues and EBITDA in its first earnings call report while also minimizing losses as its business continues to gain momentum.
After its IPO in July, SpaceX saw some tough losses on Wall Street due to a major selloff after a delay in its 13th Starship test flight. The ship launched later that week and completed what was arguably the most successful IFT operation in the Starship program’s history.
Nevertheless, the company is continuing on and reported some encouraging financials while also promoting what appears to be a robust outlook moving forward in its Space, AI, and Connectivity divisions.
SpaceX to report first-ever earnings today: here’s what to expect
Earnings Results
- Revenues: $7.8 billion reported vs. $6.7 billion expected
- Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5 billion vs. $2 billion expected
- Net loss of $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from net loss of $1.0 billion
Additionally, CFO Bret Johnsen had these comments:
“2026 has been a momentous year so far, and the second quarter demonstrated the true power of SpaceX. Revenue growth accelerated across all our business segments and we delivered strong operating leverage, with significant margin expansion led by our new AI compute agreements. Our unparalleled leadership in launch, Starlink subscriber growth, new enterprise and government partnerships, and best-in-class AI infrastructure underscore our ability to drive meaningful scale and deliver attractive returns. As a newly public company, we are delighted to welcome our broad base of shareholders and bondholders. We ended the second quarter with $100 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and $47.5 billion in backlog. This financial strength gives us substantial capacity to invest in Starship, Starlink Broadband and Mobile satellites, and our AI platform, while maintaining a disciplined long-term capital allocation framework.”
Space Business Highlights
SpaceX shared some of its biggest Space Business Highlights for Q2:
- Space revenues grew 55% sequentially and 29% year-over-year to $962 million, driven by a higher number of large customer launches and a favorable customer shift compared to the prior year
- Total costs and expenses for the Space segment were up by $389 million year-over-year, as we continued to accelerate R&D investments in our Starship program, which we believe will reduce the cost to orbit by 99% or more relative to the historical average, and unlock significant revenue potential across all business segments
- Leading launch provider for the world with 78 launches and 1,041 metric tons of mass to orbit deployed over the six months ended June 30, 2026, primarily allocated to Connectivity for the deployment of our Starlink constellation
- Starship V3 development continued to advance towards full and rapid reusability:
- Completed Starship V3’s first suborbital mission in May, Flight 12, which achieved a successful lift off from our new Starbase pad, a precision landing of Starship’s upper stage, and deployment of modified V2 Starlink satellites
- Subsequent to the second quarter, completed Starship Flight 13 in July, which achieved all flight objectives including deploying 20 production V3 satellites, demonstrating in-space relight of a Raptor engine, and executing the softest ever splashdown of Starship, providing critical views of an intact heatshield
SpaceX will report its earnings today at 4:30 P.M. EDT.
-
SpaceX has solved Starship’s biggest challenge, Elon Musk says
SpaceX is coming for wireless giants with Starlink Mobile
