Investor's Corner
Is the trucking industry ready for Tesla? Experts weigh in
When Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla will unveil an electric semi-truck in September, many in the trucking industry, and even Wall Street, took notice.
Electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of the entire trucking market by 2020, but the EV trucking industry will grow to 10 percent just a decade later, according IHS Markit, an industry research firm. The percentages of all-electric trucks abroad will be slightly higher, with markets like the European Union, Japan, and China taking the lead.
“There is a certain amount of hype to Tesla’s announcement,” said Antti Lindstrom, an analyst at IHS Markit. “It doesn’t seem that long-distance trucking is ready for electrification right now.”
What will Tesla need to do to create a viable long-haul all-electric trucking industry?
Obstacles that Tesla will need to overcome for all-electric trucking success
Of all the freight transported in America, 70% is transported by the trucking industry, according to Apex Capital. Yet, if Tesla is to break into the trucking industry with all-electric vehicles, it will need to overcome a number of barriers.
Price is probably the number one factor of concern for all-electric long-haul trucks, as an all-electric semi- compared with a diesel truck will likely be much more expensive. “Tesla cars don’t need to prove an economic case to their buyers; Tesla trucks will,” Michael Baudendistel, a Stifel Financial Corp. analyst, wrote in a recent investor report. Yes, Teslas have been targeted thus far to a wealthy segment of the population, but, just as that will change with the introduction of the Model 3, so, too, can Tesla design a reasonably priced big rig when fuel versus charging costs are taken into consideration.
Tesla would have to create a marketplace for electric trucks. “Given the happily consolidated nature of the domestic truck manufacturing market, the prospect of a new competitive threat, from a company with previous success in disrupting established industries nonetheless, is undoubtedly unwelcomed news,” states Baudendistel. This year, however, Mercedes-Benz Trucks is bringing the world´s first all-electric heavy-duty truck to market in a small release. Moreover, Piper Jaffray analyst, Alex Potter, released a note this week revealing that he was downgrading the engine and truck manufacturers Cummins and Paccar — partly as a response to Tesla’s impending semi truck reveal. With Tesla’s proven history, the trucking sector can’t be that far behind for the company. Indeed, as early as 2011, Tesla was invited to testify at the Congressional hearing titled, “The American Energy Initiative.” Tesla spoke then about the need and timing for alternative energy vehicles, especially those powered by electricity. Tesla demonstrated how an entrenched culture like that of the U.S. automaker could be disrupted; trucking manufacturers today have every right to be paying attention.
“We have intentionally departed from the traditional automotive industry model by both focusing exclusively on electric powertrain technology and owning our vehicle sales and service network… If, however, you believe in the power of American innovation to fundamentally change and improve our individual lives and our larger societal interests, then there is no question the time is right to step up and support the development of a viable EV market in the U.S. and to encourage in word and deed the American companies fighting to establish EVs in the marketplace.”
Where would all-electric trucks go for service and repair? “This has been an inconvenience for Tesla cars,” Baudendistel told Trucks.com. “For trucks, though, if the wheels ain’t turnin’, you ain’t earnin’.” Tesla has demonstrated its ability to respond to current owner needs as they became apparent. As early as 2015, the company won an automotive repair satisfaction survey. It launched a Mobile Tire Service program to better serve owners who end up on the side of the road with a flat tire. In anticipation of the Model 3 release, Tesla will be expanding its mobile service capability to include sending technicians to an owner’s home or office for minor repairs. Tesla has the capacity to create a comparable response service and repair program for long-haul all-electric trucks.
The highway charging network for heavy-duty vehicles does not exist; there is no place to charge a long-haul electric truck. “You can’t put the cart before the horse,” Baudendistel said. “Widespread adoption hinges on the availability of fueling stations, and the infrastructure built for Tesla autos was not designed for Class 8 trucks.” Electric trucks currently in use for redistributing cargo require a far smaller range than a long-haul big rig and can be recharged at a central facility. They don’t require a network of charging stations along the nation’s highways. But with the vast Supercharger network that Tesla already has in place, it seems sensible to assume that Tesla would provide adequate comparable charging for fleets of all-electric trucks.
Yes, at this time, recharging electric vehicles is time consuming. “Battery swapping and refueling overnight are both options which would require significant additional investment in infrastructure and logistics,” Baudendistel said. Tesla considered but then discarded the idea of battery swapping with its electric cars. However, with the Electrify America initiative that Volkswagen is spearheading as a result of its diesel malfeasance court settlement, recharging times may drop considerably and quickly as R&D expands. Additionally, unlike an all-electric bus, with its long wheelbase and battery storage underneath, wouldn’t the height and breadth of a semi-truck be the right design for a battery pack that is replaced at a convenient stopping point? Tesla may reconsider battery swapping if the contextual conditions are right.
The trucking industry has expressed concern that batteries needed to power a semi- would be heavy, take up cargo room, and compromise range. Daniel Murray, vice president of research for the American Trucking Research Institute, told Trucks.com, “No one has clarified for us how much extra battery weight will accrue, which, of course, decreases revenue weight.” Baudendistel added, “We believe at least 600-800 miles of range is needed for the truck to be competitive in the line-haul market. We have heard indications that the Tesla semi’s range will be 200-300 miles, which would limit its addressable market.” Just this month, however, Panasonic’s President Kazuhiro Tsuga admitted the battery trade-off between energy density and safety is prodding his company, which partners with Tesla, to look at alternative battery power sources. And this year’s Battery Symposium in Japan, once a showcase for fuel cells and LIB cathode materials, saw a shift to discussions about solid-state, lithium-air, and non-Li-ion batteries. Thus, the current state of batteries for all-electric vehicles may look entirely different in a decade and may fit the needs of Tesla all-electric long haul transportation.
Diesel fuel is inexpensive these days, which limits the costs associated with current big rig transport. “The very low fuel prices we see now and will for a long time are making most alternative-fuel vehicles appear to be very expensive,” Murray said. That perspective may be a bit short-sighted, however, as, in August 2016, the EPA and NHTSA jointly finalized standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles through model year 2027. They are intended to improve fuel efficiency, cut carbon pollution, reduce the impacts of climate change, bolster energy security, and spur manufacturing innovation. Clearly, these are comparable goals to Tesla’s as outlined in the 2016 Master Plan Part Deux. Evolution toward all-electric long-haul transportation as spearheaded by Tesla may fulfill many of the upcoming standards so that fossil fuel costs become irrelevant.
Elon Musk as the world’s biggest advocate of electric-powered transportation
Yes, there are many reasons why an all-electric Tesla long-haul truck will be difficult to integrate into the current transportation sector. Then again, as Baudendistel concedes, “If nothing else, Elon Musk—and by extension, Tesla—is a great disrupter.” Tesla’s innovations, from company-owned stores, over-the-air vehicle updates, and autonomous driving features, to name just three, have forced the automotive and technology industries to new levels. So, although many in the trucking industry are skeptical, it has rarely been wise to bet against Elon Musk.
“We are keeping a watchful eye on Tesla as a new entrant,” Baudendistel admits. Even with obstacles to be overcome, he says, “Still, we wouldn’t count Tesla out long-term.”
Elon Musk
Elon Musk just upped his Tesla stake further fueling SpaceX merger conversation
Elon Musk just collected a $116 billion Tesla payday and the timing is eye-opening
Elon Musk quietly collected one of the largest single-transaction paydays in corporate history on Monday. A Form 4 filed with the SEC on June 17, 2026 disclosed that Musk exercised 303,960,630 Tesla stock options from his 2018 compensation package, with the transaction dated June 16. No shares were sold on the open market.
The numbers are straightforward but striking. Musk exercised the options at a split-adjusted strike price of $23.34, with Tesla closing at $404.66 that day, putting the spread at $381.32 per share and generating roughly $115.9 billion in paper gains in a single transaction. To cover the exercise cost, Tesla withheld 17,531,857 shares through a net share settlement, meaning Musk paid nothing out of pocket.
For perspective, in 2018, Elon Musk’s award was originally approved by Tesla shareholders on March 21, 2018, and structured entirely around performance milestones that many analysts at the time called unreachable. Every tranche eventually vested. The original grant covered 20,264,042 shares at $350.02, which after Tesla’s 5-for-1 split in 2020 and 3-for-1 split in 2022 adjusted to 303,960,630 shares at $23.34. A Delaware court rescinded the award in January 2024, ruling the board was conflicted. As Teslarati reported, Tesla shareholders voted to ratify the package anyway in June 2024 by a wide margin. The Delaware Supreme Court reversed the decision in December 2025, finding full cancellation too extreme, and Tesla’s board signed an Implementation Agreement on April 21, 2026 to formally deliver the shares.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The timing and structure of the Form 4 filing carries more weight than a routine stock option exercise typically would. Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla award on June 16, a week into SpaceX completing its IPO and trading publicly, and giving SpaceX a public market valuation and share currency for the first time in the company’s history. A stock-for-stock merger between two companies requires the acquiring entity to have tradeable shares it can offer to the target’s shareholders, and SpaceX now has exactly that. At the same time, Musk just increased his direct Tesla voting power to approximately 20%, giving him greater influence over any shareholder vote that a merger would require. The restricted shares he received cannot be sold until 2033, which removes any near-term incentive to cash out and instead positions this stake as long-term structural collateral in a deal. Additionally, Musk’s two companies are already deeply intertwined through shared semiconductor fabrication at their joint TERAFAB facility in Austin, cross-company supply chain transactions, and Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI prior to the SpaceX-xAI merger.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has publicly placed the odds of a Tesla and SpaceX combination at 80% to 90% by early 2027. The Implementation Agreement that made Monday’s exercise possible was signed on April 21, 2026, roughly two months before the SpaceX IPO closed. That sequencing, building Musk’s Tesla ownership to its highest point ever immediately before SpaceX gains the public currency needed to acquire it, is either an extraordinary coincidence or a carefully staged foundation for the largest corporate merger in history.
Tesla deliveries got a big boost in expectations from Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs, who believes the company will report some stronger-than-expected numbers when the second quarter comes to an end in the coming weeks.
Goldman Sachs has raised its vehicle delivery forecast for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) in the second quarter of 2026, signaling growing confidence in the electric vehicle leader’s near-term momentum despite mixed market signals. Analyst Mark Delaney lifted the bank’s Q2 estimate to 420,000 units from a previous 405,000, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 400,000.
The upward revision stems from stronger-than-expected sales data across key regions. Europe stands out with projected year-over-year growth of 85-90 percent, driven by robust demand for Tesla’s Model Y and refreshed offerings. China posted high single-digit gains, while markets like South Korea and Australia also contributed positive momentum. These gains help offset mid-teens declines in U.S. deliveries through May, where broader EV market headwinds and competition persist.
Goldman extended its optimism to the full year, increasing its 2026 delivery projection to 1.73 million vehicles from 1.72 million. Longer-term forecasts remain unchanged, with 1.88 million units expected in 2027 and 1.96 million in 2028. The bank also nudged its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate higher to $1.35 from $1.30, reflecting anticipated margin benefits from higher volumes and operational efficiencies.
Despite these positive adjustments, Goldman maintained its Neutral rating and $375 price target on Tesla shares. At current trading levels near $411, the stock sits about 8-9 percent above the target, highlighting ongoing valuation concerns even as delivery momentum builds. Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries totaled 358,023 units, setting a baseline for recovery expectations in the current period.
This update arrives as Tesla prepares to report official Q2 figures shortly after June 30. Investors and analysts will closely watch not only headline delivery numbers but also regional breakdowns, average selling prices, and progress on energy storage deployments and autonomous technology initiatives.
The move by Goldman Sachs underscores a broader narrative for Tesla: while legacy auto markets face softening demand and tariff uncertainties, Tesla’s global footprint and product pipeline provide resilience. Europe’s surge reflects pent-up demand and policy support for EVs, while China’s steady growth highlights Tesla’s competitive positioning against local rivals.
Tesla still has its work cut out for it, including U.S. price sensitivity and intensifying competition. Yet Goldman’s revision adds to a series of analyst notes suggesting Q2 could mark a turning point. As Tesla pushes toward higher production rates at facilities in Fremont, Shanghai, and Berlin, sustained execution will be key to validating these higher forecasts.
We have said numerous times that deliveries are becoming a less important metric in the grand scheme of things, as AI truly takes precedence in the company’s thesis.
For Tesla bulls, the Goldman note reinforces faith in underlying demand trends. For skeptics, the unchanged rating serves as a reminder that delivery beats alone may not immediately resolve valuation debates in a high-interest-rate environment. Tesla’s stock reaction will likely hinge on the official numbers and management commentary in the coming weeks.
Renowned investor Ron Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital, has once again demonstrated his unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s ventures.
Just after SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, Baron announced he purchased an additional $1 billion in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares. This move pushes Baron Capital’s total holdings in the company to a staggering $25 billion in market value, underscoring one of the most successful private-to-public investment stories in recent history.
Baron’s relationship with SpaceX dates back to 2017, when his firm began investing approximately $1.75–2 billion through secondary markets and employee tender offers at valuations around $20–22 billion.
By the time of the IPO, which valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion with shares closing near $161, those early stakes had generated more than $13 billion in unrealized gains. Post-IPO, Baron’s position ballooned further, reflecting the company’s meteoric rise driven by reusable rocketry, Starlink’s global satellite internet constellation, Starshield defense applications, and ambitious plans for orbital infrastructure.
In a recent interview, Baron articulated his bullish outlook with characteristic enthusiasm.
Ron Baron said today that he bought $1 billion of @SpaceX IPO shares last Friday, and said that all of Baron Capital’s $SPCX holdings are now worth $25 billion.
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars; If you read the prospectus, you realize what they… pic.twitter.com/U8F471KtJS
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 15, 2026
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” he stated, emphasizing that SpaceX’s achievements in rocketry and satellite technology are “not possible for anyone else to accomplish.” He envisions the company as a cornerstone of humanity’s multi-planetary future, potentially reaching valuations of $10–30 trillion within 10–15 years.
Baron has repeatedly affirmed he has no plans to sell, viewing SpaceX as a “lifetime investment” alongside Tesla.
Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA
This conviction stems from SpaceX’s unparalleled execution. The company has revolutionized access to space with Falcon 9 reusability, deployed thousands of Starlink satellites, and is advancing Starship for Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport.
Baron highlights emerging opportunities like space-based AI data centers and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, positioning SpaceX at the forefront of a new space economy projected to generate trillions in value.
Critics may question the lofty projections amid high valuations and execution risks, but Baron’s track record speaks volumes. His Tesla holdings, initiated in the mid-2010s, have also delivered outsized returns. As one of the largest institutional holders of SpaceX pre-IPO, Baron Capital’s funds, such as Baron Partners, benefited immensely from valuation markups.
Baron’s $1 billion IPO purchase signals deep confidence in SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. In an era of short-term market noise, his strategy exemplifies patient capital: backing visionary leadership and transformative technology.
For investors watching the space sector, it serves as a powerful endorsement that the final frontier may indeed yield the next great wealth-creation engine. As Baron puts it, SpaceX isn’t just building rockets—it’s trying to “save humanity” by expanding our horizons beyond Earth.
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