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Is the trucking industry ready for Tesla? Experts weigh in

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When Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla will unveil an electric semi-truck in September, many in the trucking industry, and even Wall Street, took notice.

Electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of the entire trucking market by 2020, but the EV trucking industry will grow to 10 percent just a decade later, according IHS Markit, an industry research firm. The percentages of all-electric trucks abroad will be slightly higher, with markets like the European Union, Japan, and China taking the lead.

“There is a certain amount of hype to Tesla’s announcement,” said Antti Lindstrom, an analyst at IHS Markit. “It doesn’t seem that long-distance trucking is ready for electrification right now.”

What will Tesla need to do to create a viable long-haul all-electric trucking industry?

Obstacles that Tesla will need to overcome for all-electric trucking success

Of all the freight transported in America, 70% is transported by the trucking industry, according to Apex Capital. Yet, if Tesla is to break into the trucking industry with all-electric vehicles, it will need to overcome a number of barriers.

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Price is probably the number one factor of concern for all-electric long-haul trucks, as an all-electric semi- compared with a diesel truck will likely be much more expensive. “Tesla cars don’t need to prove an economic case to their buyers; Tesla trucks will,” Michael Baudendistel, a Stifel Financial Corp. analyst, wrote in a recent investor report. Yes, Teslas have been targeted thus far to a wealthy segment of the population, but, just as that will change with the introduction of the Model 3, so, too, can Tesla design a reasonably priced big rig when fuel versus charging costs are taken into consideration.

Tesla would have to create a marketplace for electric trucks. “Given the happily consolidated nature of the domestic truck manufacturing market, the prospect of a new competitive threat, from a company with previous success in disrupting established industries nonetheless, is undoubtedly unwelcomed news,” states Baudendistel. This year, however, Mercedes-Benz Trucks is bringing the world´s first all-electric heavy-duty truck to market in a small release. Moreover, Piper Jaffray analyst, Alex Potter, released a note this week revealing that he was downgrading the engine and truck manufacturers Cummins and Paccar — partly as a response to Tesla’s impending semi truck reveal. With Tesla’s proven history, the trucking sector can’t be that far behind for the company. Indeed, as early as 2011, Tesla was invited to testify at the Congressional hearing titled, “The American Energy Initiative.” Tesla spoke then about the need and timing for alternative energy vehicles, especially those powered by electricity. Tesla demonstrated how an entrenched culture like that of the U.S. automaker could be disrupted; trucking manufacturers today have every right to be paying attention.

“We have intentionally departed from the traditional automotive industry model by both focusing exclusively on electric powertrain technology and owning our vehicle sales and service network… If, however, you believe in the power of American innovation to fundamentally change and improve our individual lives and our larger societal interests, then there is no question the time is right to step up and support the development of a viable EV market in the U.S. and to encourage in word and deed the American companies fighting to establish EVs in the marketplace.”

Where would all-electric trucks go for service and repair? “This has been an inconvenience for Tesla cars,” Baudendistel told Trucks.com. “For trucks, though, if the wheels ain’t turnin’, you ain’t earnin’.” Tesla has demonstrated its ability to respond to current owner needs as they became apparent. As early as 2015, the company won an automotive repair satisfaction survey. It launched a Mobile Tire Service program to better serve owners who end up on the side of the road with a flat tire. In anticipation of the Model 3 release, Tesla will be expanding its mobile service capability to include sending technicians to an owner’s home or office for minor repairs. Tesla has the capacity to create a comparable response service and repair program for long-haul all-electric trucks.

The highway charging network for heavy-duty vehicles does not exist; there is no place to charge a long-haul electric truck. “You can’t put the cart before the horse,” Baudendistel said. “Widespread adoption hinges on the availability of fueling stations, and the infrastructure built for Tesla autos was not designed for Class 8 trucks.” Electric trucks currently in use for redistributing cargo require a far smaller range than a long-haul big rig and can be recharged at a central facility. They don’t require a network of charging stations along the nation’s highways. But with the vast Supercharger network that Tesla already has in place, it seems sensible to assume that Tesla would provide adequate comparable charging for fleets of all-electric trucks.

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Yes, at this time, recharging electric vehicles is time consuming. “Battery swapping and refueling overnight are both options which would require significant additional investment in infrastructure and logistics,” Baudendistel said. Tesla considered but then discarded the idea of battery swapping with its electric cars. However, with the Electrify America initiative that Volkswagen is spearheading as a result of its diesel malfeasance court settlement, recharging times may drop considerably and quickly as R&D expands. Additionally, unlike an all-electric bus, with its long wheelbase and battery storage underneath, wouldn’t the height and breadth of a semi-truck be the right design for a battery pack that is replaced at a convenient stopping point? Tesla may reconsider battery swapping if the contextual conditions are right.

The trucking industry has expressed concern that batteries needed to power a semi- would be heavy, take up cargo room, and compromise range. Daniel Murray, vice president of research for the American Trucking Research Institute, told Trucks.com, “No one has clarified for us how much extra battery weight will accrue, which, of course, decreases revenue weight.” Baudendistel added, “We believe at least 600-800 miles of range is needed for the truck to be competitive in the line-haul market. We have heard indications that the Tesla semi’s range will be 200-300 miles, which would limit its addressable market.”  Just this month, however, Panasonic’s President Kazuhiro Tsuga admitted the battery trade-off between energy density and safety is prodding his company, which partners with Tesla, to look at alternative battery power sources. And this year’s Battery Symposium in Japan, once a showcase for fuel cells and LIB cathode materials, saw a shift to discussions about solid-state, lithium-air, and non-Li-ion batteries. Thus, the current state of batteries for all-electric vehicles may look entirely different in a decade and may fit the needs of Tesla all-electric long haul transportation.

Diesel fuel is inexpensive these days, which limits the costs associated with current big rig transport. “The very low fuel prices we see now and will for a long time are making most alternative-fuel vehicles appear to be very expensive,” Murray said. That perspective may be a bit short-sighted, however, as, in August 2016, the EPA and NHTSA jointly finalized standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles through model year 2027. They are intended to improve fuel efficiency, cut carbon pollution, reduce the impacts of climate change, bolster energy security, and spur manufacturing innovation. Clearly, these are comparable goals to Tesla’s as outlined in the 2016 Master Plan Part Deux. Evolution toward all-electric long-haul transportation as spearheaded by Tesla may fulfill many of the upcoming standards so that fossil fuel costs become irrelevant.

Elon Musk as the world’s biggest advocate of electric-powered transportation

Yes, there are many reasons why an all-electric Tesla long-haul truck will be difficult to integrate into the current transportation sector. Then again, as Baudendistel concedes, “If nothing else, Elon Musk—and by extension, Tesla—is a great disrupter.” Tesla’s innovations, from company-owned stores, over-the-air vehicle updates, and autonomous driving features, to name just three, have forced the automotive and technology industries to new levels. So, although many in the trucking industry are skeptical, it has rarely been wise to bet against Elon Musk.

“We are keeping a watchful eye on Tesla as a new entrant,” Baudendistel admits. Even with obstacles to be overcome, he says, “Still, we wouldn’t count Tesla out long-term.”

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Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Tesla called ‘biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen’ by Yale associate dean

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is being called “the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen” by Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld, who made the comments in a recent interview with CNBC.

Sonnenfeld’s comments echo those of many of the company’s skeptics, who argue that its price-to-earnings ratio is far too high when compared to other companies also in the tech industry. Tesla is often compared to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft when these types of discussions come up.

Fundamentally, yes, Tesla does trade at a P/E level that is significantly above that of any comparable company.

However, it is worth mentioning that Tesla is not traded like a typical company, either.

Here’s what Sonnenfeld said regarding Tesla:

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“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Many analysts have admitted in the past that they believe Tesla is an untraditional stock in the sense that many analysts trade it based on narrative and not fundamentals. Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan once said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Dan Nathan, another notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, recently turned bullish on the stock because of “technicals and sentiment.” He said just last week:

“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”

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Nathan said Tesla shares show signs of strength moving forward, including holding its 200-day moving average and holding against current resistance levels.

Sonnenfeld’s synopsis of Tesla shares points out that there might be “a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

This could refer to different things: perhaps his recent $1 billion stock buy, which sent the stock skyrocketing, or the fact that many Tesla investors are fans and owners who do not buy and sell on numbers, but rather on news that Musk might report himself.

Tesla is trading around $423.76 at the time of publication, as of 3:25 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Elon Musk affirms Tesla commitment and grueling work schedule: “Daddy is very much home”

The remarks came as Tesla shares crossed the $400 mark on the stock market.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk reiterated his commitment to the electric vehicle maker and its future projects this week, responding to speculation following his $1 billion purchase of TSLA stock. 

The remarks came as Tesla shares crossed the $400 mark on the stock market, extending a rally fueled in part by Musk’s TSLA purchase.

Elon Musk’s nonstop work schedule

Amidst the reaction of TSLA stock to Musk’s $1 billion investment, Tesla owners such as @greggertruck noted that “Daddy’s home.” Musk replied, stating that “Daddy is very much home.” He then shared details of a packed weekend of work, which was definitely grueling but completely within character for a “wartime CEO.”

Musk did note, however, that he had lunch with his kids during the weekend despite his extremely busy schedule.

“Daddy is very much home. Am burning the midnight oil with Optimus engineering on Friday night, then redeye overnight to Austin arriving 5am, wake up to have lunch with my kids and then spend all Saturday afternoon in deep technical reviews for the Tesla AI5 chip design. 

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“Fly to Colossus II on Monday to walk the whole datacenter floor, review transformers and power production (excellent progress), depart midnight. Then up to 12 hours of back-to-back meetings across all Tesla departments, but with a particular focus on AI/Autopilot, Optimus production plans, and vehicle production/delivery,” Musk wrote in his post

Wartime CEO

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives described Musk as operating in “wartime CEO mode,” highlighting autonomous driving and AI as a trillion-dollar market opportunity for Tesla. Musk reiterated this point late last month as well, when he outlined the several projects he is juggling among his numerous companies. At the time, Musk stated that he was busy with Starship 10, Grok 5, and Tesla V14. This was despite his notable presence on X. 

With Tesla Master Plan Part IV being partly released, the company is entering what could very well be its most ambitious stage to date. To usher in an era of sustainable abundance, Tesla would definitely require a “wartime CEO,” someone who could remain locked in and determined to push through any obstacles to ensure that the company achieves its goals.

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Tesla analyst says Musk stock buy should send this signal to investors

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased roughly $1 billion in Tesla shares on Friday, and analysts are now breaking down the move as the stock is headed upward.

One of them is William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who said in a new note to investors on Monday that Musk’s move should send a signal of confidence to stock buyers, especially considering the company’s numerous catalysts that currently exist.

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

Dorsheimer said in the note:

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish. This purchase is Musk’s first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla’s future business, robotaxi.”

Musk putting an additional $1 billion back into the company in the form of more stock ownership is obviously a huge vote of confidence.

He knows more than anyone about the progress Tesla has made and is making on the Robotaxi platform, as well as the company’s ongoing efforts to solve vehicle autonomy. If he’s buying stock, it is more than likely a good sign.

Tesla has continued to expand its Robotaxi platform in a number of ways. The project has gotten bigger in terms of service area, vehicle fleet, and testing population. Tesla has also recently received a permit to test in Nevada, unlocking the potential to expand into a brand-new state for the company.

In the note, Dorsheimer also touched on Musk’s recent pay package, revealing that William Blair recently met with Tesla’s Board of Directors, who gave the firm some more color on the situation:

“We recently participated in a meeting with Tesla’s board of directors to discuss the details of Musk’s performance package. The board is confident of its position in the Delaware case and anticipates a verdict by end of year. It does not expect a similar situation to occur under new Texas jurisdiction. Musk has the board’s full support, and we expect he’ll get more than enough shareholder support for this to pass with flying colors.”

Tesla stock is up over 6 percent so far today, trading at $421.50 at the time of publication.

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