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SpaceX’s Japanese Moon lander launch back on the calendar after indefinite delay
Update: After indefinitely delaying ispace’s first Moon lander launch on November 30th to fix unspecified issues with its Falcon 9 rocket, multiple sources indicate that SpaceX has put the mission back on its calendar.
Barring additional issues, the private HAKUTO-R Moon lander is now scheduled to lift off from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad no earlier than (NET) 3:04 am EST (08:04 UTC) on Wednesday, December 7th. The mission’s quick return after just a few days of rework is a good sign that the issue that forced SpaceX to stand down was relatively minor. Simultaneously, SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to launch its first mission for OneWeb – a low Earth orbit satellite Internet provider competing directly with Starlink – less than ten hours prior, at 5:37 pm EST (22:37 UTC) on December 6th.
SpaceX support ship Doug departed Florida’s Port Canaveral on the afternoon of December 4th, likely en route to recover Falcon 9’s payload fairing after its first OneWeb launch. If SpaceX is, in fact, working towards a December 7th launch of HAKUTO-R, twin support ship Bob will likely also head to sea within the next 24 hours.
SpaceX has delayed the launch of Japanese startup ispace’s first Moon lander, HAKUTO-R, from Wednesday to Thursday, December 1st “to allow for additional pre-flight checkouts.”
The mission will be the third Moon launch from US soil in less than four months after SpaceX’s successful launch of the South Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in August and the debut of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket earlier this month. Perhaps more importantly, ispace has the opportunity to become the first company in history to successfully land a privately-developed spacecraft on the Moon, a milestone that would arguably mark the start of a new era of lunar exploration.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
ispace’s first HAKUTO-R Moon lander is expected to weigh approximately 1050 kilograms (~2300 lb) at liftoff and is designed to land up to 30 kilograms (~66 lb) of cargo on the lunar surface. The lander is made by several commercial partners: ispace has provided most of its design and structures, but Europe’s ArianeGroup supplied all of HAKUTO-R’s engines, plumbing, and propulsion hardware and was responsible for most of the final assembly process.
Because of ArianeGroup’s involvement, it’s likely that HAKUTO-R shares direct heritage with the European Service Module currently powering NASA’s Orion spacecraft on its first mission to the Moon. It also arguably makes the mission more of a collaboration between Europe and Japan than an exclusively Japanese mission, though HAKUTO-R will still technically be Japan’s first private mission to the Moon.
If successful, it could also become the first privately-funded Moon landing in history. But HAKUTO-R can’t claim to be the first private Moon landing attempt, a title held by Israeli company SpaceIL’s ill-fated Beresheet Moon lander. Launched by SpaceX as a rideshare passenger sitting on top of an Indonesian communications satellite, Beresheet propelled itself all the way from geostationary transfer orbit to lunar orbit over the course of about six weeks. Just a minute or so before touchdown, a manual command inadvertently shut down the spacecraft’s propulsion, causing it to impact the surface of the Moon at ~500 kilometers per hour (310 mph) – less than 8% away from a soft landing.
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In September 2019, just five months later, India’s first nationally developed Moon lander got even closer to a successful landing, losing control at a velocity of just 210 km/h (~130 mph) and an altitude of 330 meters (1080 ft). Since the Soviet Union’s 1976 Luna-26 mission, only China’s national space agency (CNSA) has successfully landed on the Moon, completing three landings between 2013 and 2020. The last successful Western Moon landing (Apollo 17; also the last crewed Moon landing) occurred in 1972.
ispace’s ultimate goal is to help facilitate the creation of infrastructure capable of supporting a permanent population of 1000 people on the Moon by 2040. The Japanese startup has privately raised $210 million since it was founded in 2010. In 2022, it won a $73M NASA contract to develop a much larger SERIES-2 vehicle capable of sending either “500 kilograms to the [lunar] surface or as much as 2000 kilograms to lunar orbit.” SERIES-2 will be developed out of ispace’s US branch instead of its Japanese headquarters.
HAKUTO-R will carry seven payloads:
- A solid-state battery for ispace corporate partner NGK SPARK PLUG CO
- A Moon rover (Rashid) for the United Arab Emirates space agency
- JAXA’s transformable lunar robot
- A Canadian Space Agency flight computer prototype
- A camera system built by Canda’s Canadensys
- A panel engraved with the names of HAKUTO’s crowdfunding supporters
- A music disc containing Japanese rock band Sakanaction’s song “SORATO”
In addition to HAKUTO-R, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will simultaneously launch the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL) Lunar Flashflight ice surveyor as a rideshare payload. After launch, Lunar Flashlight will attempt to enter an elliptical lunar orbit and use an infrared laser to (invisibly) illuminate the surface of craters that have been in shadow for millions of years. The way the surface reflects that laser light will allow the spacecraft to prospect for water ice deposits that could one day be mined and converted into rocket propellant.
Tune in below around 3:20 am EST (08:25 UTC) on Thursday, December 1st to watch SpaceX launch Japan’s first privately-developed Moon lander.
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Elon Musk has declared that SpaceX has effectively solved one of Starship’s most persistent engineering challenges: the reliability of its heat shield tiles.
During the company’s first-ever Earnings Call, the SpaceX CEO stated:
“I don’t want to jinx it or anything, but I think I would call the heat shield problem solved at this point. All indications from data and visual inspection is we have solved it. That doesn’t mean we won’t make improvements, but we do not see any technical obstacles to achieving rapid reusability at this point.”
Starship’s heat shield consists of roughly 18,000 hexagonal ceramic tiles covering the windward side of the upper stage. These tiles form the thermal protection system that shields the vehicle’s stainless-steel structure from the extreme heat of atmospheric reentry.
Elon says he believes the heat shield problem with Starship is currently solved.
He called it “arguably the single biggest problem” pic.twitter.com/eEE9vM5zlz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 4, 2026
During descent, atmospheric friction generates temperatures exceeding several thousand degrees Celsius and creates plasma flows capable of melting unprotected metal. The tiles absorb, radiate, and insulate against this energy, allowing the vehicle to survive and potentially fly again. Without a durable heat shield, full and rapid reusability, the cornerstone of Starship’s design for frequent launches, satellite deployments, and deep-space missions, would remain impossible.
The tiles have long been a source of difficulty. On earlier test flights, a significant number of tiles detached during ascent due to vibration, aerodynamic loads, and imperfect attachment methods using pins and adhesives. Gaps between tiles allowed hot plasma to infiltrate, causing secondary damage and hot spots on the underlying structure.
These issues echoed challenges faced by NASA’s Space Shuttle, whose ceramic tiles required extensive, labor-intensive inspections and replacements between missions, preventing rapid turnaround. SpaceX has iteratively improved materials, standardized tile shapes, refined attachment techniques, added secondary ablative layers, and tested sealing methods such as “crunch wrap” felt to close gaps.
Progress was visible across Flights 10–12, with steadily better tile retention, yet questions remained about whether the system could support the minimal-refurbishment goal of rapid reuse.
Flight 13 on July 24 provided the decisive evidence. Ship 40 flew a deliberately more demanding profile with higher dynamic pressure to stress the heat shield beyond typical operational loads. It successfully deployed 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, the first such payload on a Starship mission, performed an in-space Raptor engine relight, and executed a controlled reentry.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Cameras on six of the satellites and onboard sensors captured extensive imagery and data of the shield throughout the flight. The ship then achieved its softest splashdown to date in the Indian Ocean, remaining intact and floating rather than breaking apart or exploding as on prior missions. This allowed drone inspections and continuous telemetry of the heat shield in near-real time.
Post-flight analysis showed the majority of tiles remaining attached with only minor damage and limited plasma streaking at seams. Musk noted that the mission delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some.” Combined with visual inspections, these results underpinned his subsequent assessment that the core technical barriers to rapid reusability have been cleared. While refinements will continue, Flight 13 marked a pivotal step toward Starship’s operational future.
SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell outlined ambitious plans for Starlink Mobile during the company’s August 4 Earnings call, signaling a direct challenge to U.S. wireless giants like AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.
Shotwell noted that the three companies generate roughly $600 billion in combined annual revenue. “I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better,” she said. “We will eliminate dead zones leveraging the satellites in orbit. It will be better during any natural disaster… I’m quite excited about Starlink Mobile.”
SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell on @Starlink Mobile and its impact on Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile:
“Roughly, between them, $600 billion a year. I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers. Our service will be better. We will eliminate dead zones… pic.twitter.com/UYZUkrGc0L
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 4, 2026
SpaceX intends to combine its satellite constellation with terrestrial infrastructure. The company has acquired about 65 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar and plans to deploy next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites in 2027, with upgraded service targeted for the end of that year.
Shotwell described the enhanced network, leveraging more satellites and spectrum, as potentially “100 times better” than the current direct-to-cell offering, which already supports basic texting and app-based voice/video in coverage gaps through partnerships. She also indicated plans for low-cost cellular base stations that could integrate with existing Starlink dishes, creating a hybrid system for broader capacity in urban, suburban, and rural areas.
For the general public, Starlink Mobile promises significant advantages. Satellite connectivity can fill gaps where traditional cell towers fail, delivering service in remote locations, mountains, or during outages caused by storms, wildfires, or infrastructure damage—conditions in which ground networks often collapse.
Users could enjoy more consistent coverage without relying solely on dense tower builds, potentially at competitive prices as SpaceX scales. The hybrid approach aims to support full mobile services, including higher-speed data, while working with unmodified smartphones over time.
These developments revive long-standing but unfounded rumors of a Musk-developed “Tesla phone.” Speculative claims of a “Pi Phone” or similar device with built-in Starlink connectivity have circulated for years on social media, often featuring fabricated images and details. Elon Musk has repeatedly denied any such plans, stating Tesla has no intention of entering the smartphone market unless forced by extreme circumstances with app stores.
No official product, filings, or development announcements have ever materialized; the rumors remain hoaxes.
The announcement quickly pressured telecom stocks. Shares of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile fell between roughly 2 and 4 percent in after-hours and premarket trading as investors weighed the competitive threat from a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network.
While execution challenges remain—spectrum deployment, infrastructure rollout, and regulatory hurdles—Shotwell’s remarks mark SpaceX’s clearest signal yet of entering the consumer mobile market as a full competitor.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
SpaceX has solved Starship’s biggest challenge, Elon Musk says
SpaceX is coming for wireless giants with Starlink Mobile
