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SpaceX hints at mystery Falcon 9 missions with record breaking launch target

Falcon 9 B1046 is pictured here landing after its third successful launch, December 2018. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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Speaking at the 2019 Smallsat Symposium, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller announced that the company will try to break the launch record it set last year in 2019. That record stands at 21 successful missions, while President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a May 2018 interview that she was anticipating 24-28 launches in 2018 and ~18 in 2019.

Ranging from Crew Dragon transporting astronauts and a duo of Falcon Heavy missions to perhaps ten commercial satellite launches, 2019 will undoubtedly be full of major events for SpaceX. However, SpaceX’s publicly-available launch manifest suggests that there will be no more than 18 government and commercial missions ready for the company to place in orbit before 2019 is out, implying that Hofeller may be hinting at launches that are not yet public.

In just the last two years (24 months), SpaceX has successfully launched Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy an astounding 40 times, averaging approximately one launch every 2.5 weeks. In 2017, SpaceX demolished its own prior cadence record with 18 launches, a record the company’s exceptional workforce summarily proceeded to beat in 2018 with 21 successful missions launched. A vast majority of those 40 missions (27 to be precise) were the result of competitive, commercial contracts that SpaceX has been extremely successful at winning, thanks largely to the nearly unbeatable pricing of Falcon 9 and Heavy.

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Much like most other launch providers, SpaceX plays its manifest extremely close to the chest, rarely revealing more than a blanket status update. For example, SpaceX’s website states that it has “has secured over 100 missions to its manifest, representing over $12 billion on contract.” Thanks to the general drought of official manifest information, the closest approximation to a real SpaceX manifest has traditionally been maintained by members of spaceflight fan communities like /r/SpaceX and NASASpaceflight.com, using the best aspects of organized crowdsourcing to create an extremely reliable snapshot of launch contracts scheduled within ~24 months.

However, compared to SpaceX’s claimed manifest of 100+ missions at an average cost per launch of ~$120M (twice Falcon 9’s $62M list price), crowdsourced SpaceX manifests – based on mostly public information – show fewer than 60 possible launch contracts between now and the end of 2024, a majority of which are for the US government (Crew and Cargo Dragon, Air Force GPS launches, and a few NASA spacecraft). Given SpaceX’s confident use of “secured” and “on contract”, the massive gap between public manifests and SpaceX’s claims leaves more than 40 launches almost completely in the dark.

A Big Falcon Mystery

Hofeller’s Feb. 6th comment is thus just a tiny taste of SpaceX’s potential mystery manifest, indicating that the company has more than 21 payloads to launch in 2019 while public info reveals no more than 17-18 likely to be ready. Where, then, might Hofeller find an extra 4-5 missions that public observers would not normally be aware of?

The simplest answer least reminiscent of a conspiracy theory is Starlink, SpaceX’s global constellation of at least 4425 satellites. While it would be an extraordinary achievement, Reuters reported in October 2018 that CEO Elon Musk had gone as far as firing multiple senior managers of the young satellite program to install new managers with a singleminded goal: begin launching operational Starlink satellites by mid-2019. A little over six months after Musk’s Starlink shake-up, SpaceX has pivoted towards rapidly building and launching around ~1500 first-generation satellites with more conservative capabilities to lower orbits relative to the original Starlink specification.

 

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SpaceX also received a major Starlink contract from the US Air Force Research Laboratory worth almost $29 million, $19.1M of which was dispersed to SpaceX in October 2018. As of late 2018, the company’s Starlink branch had already pivoted toward ramping up production of the first several batches of operational Starlink satellites. According to a number of employees, SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites – known as Tintin A and B – were a programmatic success and continue to operate in orbit today after proving out a number of critical Starlink technologies. As such, it’s not out of the question for operational Starlink launches to begin as early as mid-2019, although Musk’s aggressive schedule is likely more than a little overly optimistic.

Assuming Starlink is greeted with a perfect production ramp and the first 10-20 spacecraft make it to orbit in good health by June 2019, it’s at least not inconceivable that a second and third launch could follow, perhaps with a 3-month launch cadence (June/September/December). The chances of this happening are probably about as slim as they come, but it does offer one possible way for SpaceX’s apparent ~18-launch manifest to jump up to 21 or more missions. The next most probable route to 21+ launches involves at least one or two Starlink-specific launches, followed by another one or two launches for a secretive US government customer like the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

In January 2018, SpaceX successfully launched a spacecraft called Zuma with no known customer aside from a generic US military agency. Despite an ambiguous potential failure of the satellite – attributed to a Northrop Grumman deployment mechanism – just days after launch, a variety of anonymous sources indicated that Zuma was just the first in a series of new military satellites with a focus on SpaceX as the primary launch provider. The value of the intensely-secretive program was estimated to be in the billions of dollars, implying a veritable constellation of mystery satellites that could provide SpaceX several additional launch contracts.

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Now a little over 12 months distant from Zuma’s bizarre debut, it’s conceivable that the next phase of the secretive satellite program is scheduled sometime in 2019. Ultimately, the general public is unlikely to learn about any potential mystery SpaceX launches until they are imminent, barring comments from executives or sourced leaks making their way into the news. For now, we wait.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

Tesla launches its driverless Robotaxi in Austin, marking the first time the company has offered its ride-hailing service anywhere in the world.

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16 hours ago

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June 22, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has officially launched its Robotaxi service platform with no driver in Austin, Texas. This is the first time Tesla has allowed driverless Robotaxis to pick up members of the public and take them around via the ride-sharing service the company has been developing for several years.

Teslarati had a first-hand look at the launch of the Robotaxi service in Austin, as we are part of the Early Access group, which is a limited group of people that will be able to hail a driverless Model Y in the geofenced area in Texas.

The Robotaxi platform is currently geofenced in a small portion of South Austin. It is roughly thirty minutes from end to end, and Tesla’s strategy is prioritizing safety through a number of safeguards that are implemented in this early program.

There is a fixed price of just $4.20 for any ride, regardless of duration, at this time. This will not always be the case, however. When a wider customer base is allowed to hail Robotaxis, ride fares will vary on things like travel distance, length of trip, and potentially time of day.

The first rides kicked off at around 2 p.m. local time in Austin. They are confined to the back row of the Model Y, while a Tesla safety monitor sits in the passenger seat. Passengers will have their personal media and streaming settings available to them as the car will sync with their driver profiles.

Rides are requested through a Robotaxi addition on the regular Tesla iOS app:

The safety monitor is only there to ensure things go smoothly with each ride. They do not have pedals or a steering wheel on their side. The car is doing everything during these Robotaxi rides.

The big takeaway from Robotaxi’s launch is that Tesla will begin generating additional revenue through this new stream. As concerns over demand and annual growth rate continue to take focus from doubters, Tesla’s continuous rollout of the Robotaxi fleet will expand potential revenue opportunities, potentially creating billions upon trillions of dollars in value.

This is something Tesla permabulls like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest and Dan Ives of Wedbush have talked about for years: the launch of a driverless Robotaxi fleet that generates new income streams for Tesla.

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First Look at Tesla’s Robotaxi App: features, design, and more

Tesla is using a Robotaxi section of its normal smartphone application to enable access to driverless vehicles roaming around Austin.

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17 hours ago

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June 22, 2025

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Tesla has officially launched the Robotaxi platform to a limited number of people, giving them the ability to ask for a ride from a driverless Model Y in Austin, Texas. But how do you hail a ride?

Through the Tesla Robotaxi app, which officially launched on June 22 as the company initiated the first rides for non-employees, people can request rides from driverless cars that are traveling around Austin. Teslarati gained access to the app as we are members of the Early Access Rider program.

There are only a very limited number of vehicles operating within the fleet currently, as Tesla has said the number is between 10 and 20 vehicles.

Tesla is using a Robotaxi section of its iOS smartphone app for the launch, confirming what the company said prior to the program’s maiden voyage: there would not be a separate app for the Robotaxi.

First Look at the Robotaxi App

The Tesla Robotaxi app, similar to the official Tesla App, features a simple interface that should be familiar to anyone who has used a ride-sharing app in the past. Downloading the app brings users to a sign-in page, which features a Tesla Model Y Robotaxi as a header image. Users can then log in or create an account to access the service.

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A Clean, Simple UI

Upon logging in, users are presented with a clean user interface that allows them to select a destination and pickup point. Upon booking, users are provided with a real-time update on when their Robotaxi will arrive. Users could also select some settings for their upcoming ride, such as their preferred temperature in the cabin.

Smart Suggestions

If there is one evident thing about Tesla’s Robotaxi App, it is the fact that it is smart and designed to make driverless ride sharing services feel as normal as possible. While waiting for their ride, customers are presented with a number of tips that should help them understand their robotaxi better.

These include tips on how to use the Model Y’s door handles, as well as information about the vehicle’s light signals. The app also includes smart suggestions on destinations that riders can visit using their Robotaxi. These include cafes, restaurants, parks, shopping centers, and other pertinent locations.

Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

Cybercab Theme

Another thing that is evident with the Robotaxi App is its Cybercab-inspired color theme. This is evident from the login page, which already features the golden hues of the dedicated two-seater autonomous car. The golden Cybercab color theme is used to great effect inside the app itself as well.

No Tips, at Least for Now

As observed by Tesla owner-enthusiast @BLKMDL3, Tesla is not accepting anything more than the service’s flat $4.20 rate per ride for now. If customers wish to leave a tip for the service, they would be presented with a page featuring Tesla’s hedgehog mascot saying “Just Kidding.”

Tips will likely be an option in the future, but for this stage of the Robotaxi rollout, it appears that the service really will follow a flat rate system.

 

 

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Watch Tesla’s first driverless public Robotaxi rides in Texas

Tesla’s first driverless Robotaxi rides for non-employees are starting with the first drives beginning today.

Published

18 hours ago

on

June 22, 2025

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Tesla has finally launched its Robotaxi platform to members of the public for the first time in Austin, Texas.

The Tesla Robotaxi platform is a driverless ride-hailing service that will enable people to use their cars for passive income as they will ride around, find riders, and drive them to their destinations in exchange for money. For right now, Tesla is using company vehicles, the Model Y specifically, and has opened up rides to a small number of people who are a part of the Early Access Program.

Teslarati is a member of the Early Access Program, as we were invited to Austin for the launch. We have gained access to Tesla’s new Robotaxi app, which lies within the main Tesla iOS app, and we are able to use the Robotaxi fleet during the Early Access Program.

The first rides are already occurring as Tesla launched the platform at around noon local time in Austin on Sunday:

The video shows that Tesla’s initial Robotaxi rides are being quite cautious. Currently, the Robotaxis can only travel within a geofenced portion of Austin. This area will eventually be expanded.

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For the time being, Tesla is keeping a safety rider in the vehicles with occupants, but they do not take up the driver’s seat. Instead, they are sitting in the passenger’s seat. This is simply a safety precaution that Tesla is using to keep Early Access riders safe, although there are ways riders can alert Tesla of any issues.

In the initial communication Tesla sent to members of the Early Access Rider program, the company said the Cabin Camera would be deactivated for the duration of their rides, but can be used if the rider needs support. Additionally, the in-cabin microphone will be deactivated, but can also be used to get in contact with support if there are any issues during the ride.

We have seen a variety of different Robotaxis rolling around Austin for the past several weeks. The company has been testing the vehicles in a very limited way for the time being, and it only has between 15 and 20 Robotaxis in the city for the launch. This number will slowly grow over time.

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