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How 2023 will be Tesla’s true ‘breakout’ year

(Credit: @FutureJurvetson/ Twitter)

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The Tesla Cybertruck. The Tesla Roadster. The Tesla Semi.

The three products above saw new expected production dates from Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Thursday at its “Cyber Rodeo” at Gigafactory Texas. Despite Tesla accomplishing so many incredible things over the past fourteen years, from basically financial ruin to the most valuable automaker in the world, 2023 is a chance for the company to truly break away from its competitors once and for all. It just has to come through on its promises.

It is no secret Tesla has come up short with some of its delivery timelines. The Cybertruck was slotted for production in late 2020. The Roadster’s revamped version has been pushed back several times. The Semi is still a priority, but so are saving battery cells for the mass-market vehicles Tesla produces. Full Self-Driving was slotted to be completed for the first time in 2018. 30,000 Robotaxis were expected to hit the streets by the end of 2021.

Then the pandemic hit in 2020, and the entire automotive industry felt the effects. While resilient in its efforts to avoid chip shortages, supply bottlenecks, and an extending backlog, Tesla took matters into its own hands. It said it developed 19 versions of microcontrollers thanks to the efforts of its in-house engineers, it ramped production of its 4680 battery cells, which it implemented in the first Made-in-Austin Model Ys, and it opened two new factories in the first four months of 2022, effectively doubling its production output as a company.

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But more than anything, 2023 is a chance for Tesla to truly break away from its competitors in terms of its product line. While many companies are focused on passenger or commercial electric vehicles exclusively, Tesla has an opportunity to expand its product line to fit nearly every sector of transportation.

The Cybertruck will be the fourth all-electric pickup on the market, following the Rivian R1T, the GMC Hummer EV, and the Ford F-150 Lightning.

The Roadster will be the first of its kind: an estimated 600+ miles of range combined with an already proven and lightning-fast powertrain, and it might even hover.

Meanwhile, the Semi will expand the commercial electric vehicle market as Volvo’s VNR electric semi, and Nikola’s plans for commercial EVs continue to work through a tumultuous year.

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Tesla’s Elon Musk predicts that 2023 will see massive “wave of new products”

The Cybertruck is absolutely the priority for Tesla: the truck has over 1 million pre-orders, and the list of reservations continues to grow with every new sighting. If Tesla can dial in production of the Cybertruck in 2023, it will not only deny so many naysayers of their skepticism, but it will also prove the company has effectively outgrown its cell supply shortages and parts bottlenecks.

The Roadster, while more of a novelty item, will bring the automaker’s revamped and revolutionary vehicle back from the dead. After so many customers and Referral Program winners may have given up on ever seeing the next-gen Roadster, Tesla bringing that project back from the dead would mean so much to the early adopters and the patient and loyal fans who have ached for the futuristic and sleek rebirth of the original Tesla vehicle.

The Semi would only prove Tesla dominance even further. It would be a large-scale commercial vehicle that supplements Tesla’s already robust and expansive product line. Covering the luxury, mass market, pickup truck, and commercial sectors would be monumental for a company that has already changed the overall architecture of the global automotive industry.

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“My view is that many on the Street and the auto industry do not appreciate just how important and revolutionary the Austin factory is for Tesla,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said. “It changes the game for Tesla from a supply perspective along with Berlin-further flexes production muscles when other autos struggling.”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla launches its solution to rare but relevant Supercharger problem

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tesla supercharger
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has launched a new solution to a rare but relevant Supercharger problem with a new Virtual Waitlist, a remedy that will solve sequencing confusion when there is a line to charge at one of the company’s locations.

Teslarati reported on what we called the Virtual Queue last month. In rare occurrences, there were physical altercations at Superchargers when someone might have cut in line to charge. Tesla started to develop some sort of system that would resolve this issue, and now it is finally rolling it out.

Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all

It will start with a Pilot Program, and Tesla is calling it the ‘Waitlist.’

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Announced on May 11 on the official TeslaCharging X account, the pilot program is currently active at sites in Los Gatos, Mountain View, and San Francisco in California, as well as San Jose, CA, and the Bronx, NY (East Gun Hill Road). Drivers are encouraged to share feedback directly through the Tesla app to refine the system before a potential broader rollout.

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Tesla released the video above to showcase the feature, which automatically joins the waitlist when your vehicle has the Supercharger with the wait as the destination in the navigation. There is also a notification that lets you know your place in line.

In this specific example, the video shows that the wait is less than five minutes, and that there are two cars ahead of the one in the video:

Credit: Tesla

Having a wait at a Supercharger is relatively rare, but it does happen. It is even more frequent now that there are more EVs allowed to use the Supercharger Network. Those non-Tesla EVs can also join the queue, as Tesla added in its social media release of the pilot program that they can join the waitlist using the Tesla app.

The release of this program should help alleviate the rare risk of incidents at Superchargers. Tesla will expand this program as it sees fit, and it gathers valuable data and reviews from users.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says

Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.

Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.

Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.

This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.

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“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.

The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.

Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.

However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.

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Elon Musk reveals shocking Tesla Optimus patent detail

Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.

This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.

As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.

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The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.

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Tesla Giga Texas buzzing as new Cybertruck appears to enter production

Additionally, the Cybercab manufacturing ramp-up is continuing amidst Tesla’s busy May, which includes a handful of things from an automotive perspective.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla Giga Texas is buzzing with a lot of action, as it appears the new Cybertruck trim that was offered a few months back has entered production. Additionally, the Cybercab manufacturing ramp-up is continuing amidst Tesla’s busy May, which includes a handful of things from an automotive perspective.

Drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer captured striking footage over Giga Texas on the morning of May 11, 2026, revealing fresh batches of Cybertrucks that may mark the start of series production for the long-awaited $59,990 Dual Motor AWD variant.

Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price

The vehicles lined up in staging areas, and we got a great look at three of the units parked on the property:

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Tegtmeyer notes the difficulty in visually distinguishing this base AWD model from higher-trim versions, unlike the earlier Long-Range RWD that lacked a motorized tonneau cover.

Tesla launched the $59,990 Dual Motor AWD Cybertruck in late February 2026 with a brief introductory pricing window that closed by month’s end.

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Demand proved overwhelming.

Initial U.S. delivery estimates of June 2026 quickly slipped to September–October and, for newer orders, as far as April 2027.

The move underscores robust consumer interest in a more accessible all-wheel-drive Cybertruck priced under $60,000 before incentives—positioning it as a volume play for Tesla’s electric pickup lineup while premium AWD and Cyberbeast variants continue to be sold as usual.

Meanwhile, Cybercab production at the same Austin facility shows steady, if deliberate, progress. Tegtmeyer’s latest flyover documented dozens of glossy production-spec Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot—consistent with Tesla’s early statements that initial output would remain modest before scaling later in 2026.

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The purpose-built robotaxi, unveiled in 2024 and lacking a steering wheel or pedals, rolled its first unit off the line in February. Volume manufacturing began in April, with early examples already undergoing autonomous testing around the factory grounds.

Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Cybercab and Semi production will start slowly before ramping “exponentially” toward year-end. The presence of multiple finished units signals Tesla’s Unboxed manufacturing process is maturing, even as the company balances Cybertruck output with autonomy milestones.

Recent drone imagery also shows ongoing construction for Optimus and test-track expansions, highlighting Giga Texas’s evolving role as Tesla’s hub for next-generation vehicles.

For Cybertruck buyers, the potential ramp of the $59K AWD offers hope of shorter waits and broader market access. For autonomy enthusiasts, the growing fleet of Cybercabs hints at robotaxi service trials on the horizon.

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While official confirmation from Tesla remains pending, Tegtmeyer’s footage provides the clearest public signal yet that both programs are advancing in parallel at Giga Texas.

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