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Tesla’s 4680 battery plant in Germany shouldn’t delay Giga Berlin’s initial production dates

Credit: Tesla

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Tesla’s Giga Berlin production facility is going to have a 4680 battery cell manufacturing plant on site. While some media outlets claim a delay in the Giga Berlin timeline should be expected due to the battery facility being added onto Tesla’s application, there isn’t any evidence to indicate that Tesla’s electric vehicles will be produced any later than the company expects.

The Tesla Giga Berlin production plant project has been one of the most anticipated vehicle manufacturing facilities in recent memory. But what started as Tesla’s way to introduce its products on a wider scale to the European market has become a long and drawn-out game of chess between the California automaker and German regulators. The most recent move in the plans occurred several days ago when Tesla finally decided to add its planned 4680 battery cell manufacturing plant to its application, bringing on the idea that the car company would be able to produce and install its own in-house batteries into its industry-leading electric cars.

However, the inclusion of the cell manufacturing plant in the newly revised application gives some the idea that Tesla’s project in Germany could sustain further delays. However, Teslarati sources in Germany say that the project shouldn’t incur any further delays; it will just require more deliberation on the part of the German authorities, who have the ultimate say in the project’s progress. While Tesla executives have recently voiced their discontent for the timeliness of the approval process, the sources indicate that German regulators are already talking about the inclusion of the 4680 battery factory at the Giga Berlin property, meaning the process, while deliberate, shouldn’t affect Tesla’s timeframes for initial EV production.

Tesla’s 4680 battery cells were unveiled at the company’s Battery Day in September 2020. The cells differ greatly from the 2170 cells by offering more energy, range, and power through numerous developments made by Tesla’s battery cell team.

Tesla originally planned to have Giga Berlin up and running later this year, and Summer 2021 was a timeframe that was commonly mentioned within the automaker’s plans. However, the ultimate authority who has the final say in when the electric vehicle manufacturing facility is the State Environmental Agency, who will now have to backtrack slightly as the application for Tesla’s production plant will need revisions due to the newly-included 4680 cell building will need to be considered. There is no separate application for the 4680 plant. Instead, it is simply added to the already-existing “master” application for the Giga Berlin facility.

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“If this additional investment now flows into the permit application, it goes without saying that the application documents must be revised, and then the approval authorities have the last word,” Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg’s Prime Minister, said, according to Automobilewoche. “We are well-advised to do everything we can to ensure that the entire permit for car production in Grünheide runs in a legally secure manner. The further process is currently being discussed.”

Tesla Giga Berlin’s battery factory deemed “very important” investment by minister

Woidke is a supporter of Tesla’s project and called the inclusion of the battery plant “positive news” for Germany as a whole. The plant, when finished, will provide a substantial number of employment opportunities for German citizens and will provide a healthy economic impact in the area.

German regulators have already taken their time with preliminary approvals for the facility due to refined and deliberate examinations of all elements involved. Tesla has been doing all of the work on the property without anything more than these preliminary approvals. Effectively, Tesla is running an “at-your-own-risk” construction project in Germany, and if regulators decide in a few months they do not want an electric vehicle manufacturing plant to operate in the area, Tesla will be required to bring the land back to its original state, assuming all financial risk. This scenario, while relatively unlikely, would be a blow not only to Tesla but the electric vehicle movement as a whole, as the largest EV company in the world would be extracted from the largest EV market in the world.

Tesla has likely come to the conclusion that the Summer production and delivery timeframe is not going to be achieved. In its latest Earnings Call Update Letter that was released on Monday, April 26th, the company said:

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“In Europe, buildout of Gigafactory Berlin is continuing to move forward, with production and deliveries remaining on track for late 2021. Machinery for paint, stamping, castings, etc., continues to be moved into the building. In the meantime, we will continue to increase import volumes to Europe.”

However, the 4680 cell plant shouldn’t prolong Tesla’s initial vehicle manufacturing efforts. While the initial timeframes for vehicle production have been pushed back from the Summer to the end of the year, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the 4680 plant’s inclusion will simply prolong Tesla’s construction efforts, and not necessarily the initial production effort’s start date.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Tesla Model 3 hits quarter million miles with original battery and motor

The Model 3’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.

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(Credit: Tesla Asia/Twitter)

A Western Australian Tesla Model 3 has captured global attention after racking up an impressive 410,000 kilometers (254,000 miles) on its original battery and motor, while still retaining around 90% of its original battery health.

Long-term Model 3

The 2021 Model 3 Standard Plus, equipped with a 60 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, has been in constant use as an Uber rideshare vehicle. According to Port Kennedy EV specialist EV Workz, the car’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.

EV Workz owner Edi Gutmanis shared the findings on Facebook’s Electric Vehicles For Australia page on August 8, and the post quickly went viral. As per Gutmanis, the Model 3’s charging history shows 15,556 kWh delivered via DC fast charging (29% of the total) and 38,012 kWh via AC charging (71% of the total). 

Gutmanis also broke down the fuel savings for the Model 3. A petrol car covering the same 410,000 km at 7L/100km and $1.70 per liter would cost an estimated AU$50,000 in fuel. By comparison, charging the Tesla using average commercial rates would be about AU$20,737 and just AU$13,000 if using Western Australia’s EV tariff. That’s a potential refueling saving of roughly $37,000, not including the avoided maintenance costs of an internal combustion engine.

Simple fix

The car came into EV Workz for a driveline “judder” issue, as per a report form EV Central Australia. Gutmanis found the real cause was simply worn motor mount bushes. After seven hours of labor and $130 in parts, “the car drives just as good as the first day it left the dealership,” Gutmanis said.

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Gutmanis, whose business also performs EV conversions on classics and 4x4s, says the results aren’t surprising. “We expect this sort of longevity with EV batteries,” he explained, though this is the highest-mileage Model 3 he has encountered in Australia.

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