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Tesla analysts adjust delivery forecasts amid Q2 headwinds

Credit: @TacosandTeslas/Twitter

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Tesla analysts have adjusted their global delivery analysts, considering the headwinds the EV manufacturer faced in Q2 2022.

The Street’s Delivery Forecasts

Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said the Street’s line in the sand for Tesla’s deliveries is roughly 250,000 globally, and anything above 260,000 will be viewed positively. He added that if Tesla reports Model Y and Model 3 deliveries around 240,000 to 245,000, the Street would consider it “good enough.” 

Ives remains bullish on Tesla, forecasting 277,000 deliveries for Tesla in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson also have bullish forecasts at 270,000 deliveries.

Analysts have slashed their delivery estimates as the second quarter ends. Even Ives and Jonas’ current delivery expectations are lower than their initial estimates. Ives initially expected Tesla to deliver around 300,000 vehicles in Q2. 

On the other side of the spectrum, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh expects Tesla to report 232,000 deliveries, down from 296,000. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank lowered his Tesla delivery estimate to 245,000 from 310,000.

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Tesla’s Q2 Headwinds

In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, broken down to 14,218 Model S/X units and 291,189 Model 3/Y cars. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental to Tesla’s record-breaking delivery numbers in Q1 2022. Unfortunately, Tesla China was crippled in Q2 due to Covid-related shutdowns. 

For most of the second quarter, Giga Shanghai worked under the city’s strict closed-loop system, preventing Tesla from working in multiple shifts. Tesla employees worked single 12-hour shifts, six days a week under Shanghai’s closed-loop setup. Tesla Giga Shanghai seems determined to get back to its rhythm but plans to halt production first to upgrade its Model Y assembly line and boost capacity

Meanwhile, Tesla has not ramped production fully at its new gigafactories in Texas and Germany. “Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there’s a ton of expense and hardly any output,” Musk said in an interview with Tesla community leaders. 

Tesla seemed aware of the challenges coming into the second quarter. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted all the possible headwinds the company might face in Q2.

“Looking ahead in the immediate term, a few things to keep in mind for Q2. First, we’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai due to COVID-related shutdowns. Production is resuming at limited levels, and we’re working to get back to full production as quickly as possible. This will impact total build and delivery volume in Q2,” Kirkhorn stated at the Q1 earnings call.

“Second, as I’ve mentioned before, Austin and Berlin are just starting their ramps. And thus, those inefficiencies will start to flow through our gross margins in Q2. Third, we do have higher ASPs in our backlog, which will help to offset some of these headwinds. We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year,” he added.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla is building a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country

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Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla is planning to build a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country — Roswell, New Mexico.

Back in 1947, a crash of debris led to rumors of an alleged crash of a UFO just 75 miles north of Roswell near Corona, New Mexico. The crash was officially noted as the recovery of a military balloon, but over the years, speculation persists that the “flying disc” many saw might have been extraterrestrials trying to make contact with Earth.

As a result of the 1947 crash, Roswell has adopted it and used it as the inspiration for much of its tourism. As Tesla is planning to build a Supercharger in the area, it is using the same sort of inspiration for the location, which will feature just eight charging stalls located under a CyberCanopy.

It was first spotted by MarcoRP, a noted Supercharger permit insider:

Here are some better pictures of the design:

Tesla’s Head of Charging for North America, Max de Zegher, confirmed that the site will be inspired by the events near Roswell in 1947. He noted that Tesla “wants to build a few Superchargers cool enough to be worth of the trip itself.”

This will undoubtedly be one of those locations, and along with the Tesla Drive-in Diner Supercharger in Santa Monica, it seems the company could be moving toward some more unique designs for the future, making the charging experience more fun and interesting for owners:

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This Tesla vandal caused thousands in damage, but she was let off the hook: Here’s why

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla vandal in Bloomington, Minnesota, caused $3,200 in damages to a car after keying it. However, the local police department, as well as the owner of the Tesla, let her off the hook.

As a Tesla sat in the parking lot of a Cub Foods grocery store, it was damaged in an act of vandalism that we are unfortunately seeing all too frequently. Police managed to locate the woman responsible for the damage, aiming to hold her responsible for the scrapes she applied to the vehicle.

However, in an act that many might not be able to perform, the owner of the Tesla did not want to pursue any criminal charges. Instead, they just wanted their car fixed.

Police Chief Booker Hodges said (via Minnesota Star Tribune):

“The victim in this case just wanted their car fixed, and they just wanted the suspect to pay for that. Based on the totality of the circumstances here, and along with our core value of being compassionate, this is the best outcome for everybody involved in this case.”

It was an incredible act of forgiveness, as many of those who have had their Teslas damaged in response to CEO Elon Musk likely would not have been able to do the same thing. One person who had their vehicle keyed filed a civil lawsuit against the vandal, who damaged their car while it was parked at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, seeking $1 million in damages.

Chief Hodges finished his remarks about this specific situation by calling out the leaders who have spread a hateful narrative about Musk and Tesla, and the company’s vehicle owners as well:

“We need our leaders to start leading and stop feeding this rhetoric. People should be able to drive whatever car they want without fear of going into a store and someone scratching their car or people yelling at them because of the car that … they choose to drive. It’s time for all of us, you know, just to start getting along and knock this stuff off, man. People should be able to be left alone.”

While Chief Hodges did not mention anyone specifically, Minnesota politician and former VP candidate Tim Walz said earlier this month that he “gets a boost” when Tesla stock falls. He later retracted his statement by stating it was just a joke.

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Tesla Model Y tops Norway sales despite low Q1 delivery results

The new Model Y ended March as Norway’s top-selling vehicle for the month, with 1,819 units sold.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla did not meet delivery expectations in the first quarter of 2025, and a huge reason behind this was the changeover to the new Model Y in Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, Giga Shanghai, and Giga Berlin.

Despite Tesla’s disappointing Q1 vehicle delivery results, the new Model Y still made a significant impact in key markets such as Norway.

The new Model Y’s Norway Comeback

While sales of the new Model Y in January and February were low in Norway, the vehicle saw a lot of momentum as soon as deliveries of the updated all-electric crossover started. This resulted in the new Model Y ending March 2025 as Norway’s top-selling vehicle for the month, with 1,819 units sold.

Over the course of Q1 2025, Tesla was able to sell a total of 2,792 Model Y units. That was enough to also make the all-electric crossover Norway’s best-selling vehicle in the first quarter. This is quite an impressive feat for Tesla, especially since sales were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s changeover to the new Model Y.

Source: Elbilstatistikk

Tesla in Other European Markets

Tesla’s results in Europe during the first quarter were a mixed bag. In Germany alone, Tesla saw 4,935 vehicles sold in Q1 2025. As per the German road traffic agency KBA, Tesla’s sales in March dropped 42.5% to 2,229 units year-over-year. This was despite overall EV registrations rising 35.3% during the month. 

In Italy, new vehicle registrations rebounded 51% in March from the previous year to 2,217 units, as per data from the Transport Ministry. This is still quite impressive considering that Tesla has become a very polarizing carmaker in Europe, thanks in no small part to CEO Elon Musk’s politics and close relation to U.S. President Donald Trump.

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