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Tesla analysts adjust delivery forecasts amid Q2 headwinds

Credit: @TacosandTeslas/Twitter

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Tesla analysts have adjusted their global delivery analysts, considering the headwinds the EV manufacturer faced in Q2 2022.

The Street’s Delivery Forecasts

Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said the Street’s line in the sand for Tesla’s deliveries is roughly 250,000 globally, and anything above 260,000 will be viewed positively. He added that if Tesla reports Model Y and Model 3 deliveries around 240,000 to 245,000, the Street would consider it “good enough.” 

Ives remains bullish on Tesla, forecasting 277,000 deliveries for Tesla in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson also have bullish forecasts at 270,000 deliveries.

Analysts have slashed their delivery estimates as the second quarter ends. Even Ives and Jonas’ current delivery expectations are lower than their initial estimates. Ives initially expected Tesla to deliver around 300,000 vehicles in Q2. 

On the other side of the spectrum, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh expects Tesla to report 232,000 deliveries, down from 296,000. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank lowered his Tesla delivery estimate to 245,000 from 310,000.

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Tesla’s Q2 Headwinds

In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, broken down to 14,218 Model S/X units and 291,189 Model 3/Y cars. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental to Tesla’s record-breaking delivery numbers in Q1 2022. Unfortunately, Tesla China was crippled in Q2 due to Covid-related shutdowns. 

For most of the second quarter, Giga Shanghai worked under the city’s strict closed-loop system, preventing Tesla from working in multiple shifts. Tesla employees worked single 12-hour shifts, six days a week under Shanghai’s closed-loop setup. Tesla Giga Shanghai seems determined to get back to its rhythm but plans to halt production first to upgrade its Model Y assembly line and boost capacity

Meanwhile, Tesla has not ramped production fully at its new gigafactories in Texas and Germany. “Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there’s a ton of expense and hardly any output,” Musk said in an interview with Tesla community leaders. 

Tesla seemed aware of the challenges coming into the second quarter. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted all the possible headwinds the company might face in Q2.

“Looking ahead in the immediate term, a few things to keep in mind for Q2. First, we’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai due to COVID-related shutdowns. Production is resuming at limited levels, and we’re working to get back to full production as quickly as possible. This will impact total build and delivery volume in Q2,” Kirkhorn stated at the Q1 earnings call.

“Second, as I’ve mentioned before, Austin and Berlin are just starting their ramps. And thus, those inefficiencies will start to flow through our gross margins in Q2. Third, we do have higher ASPs in our backlog, which will help to offset some of these headwinds. We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year,” he added.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla best-rated car brand in UK, beats Toyota in reliability: survey

The survey asked readers to rate their cars across metrics like efficiency, reliability, practicality, safety, comfort, and performance.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla critics would typically paint the company’s electric vehicles as reliability nightmares with subpar build quality and cheap materials. As per a survey from the U.K., however, the opposite is true, as Tesla is not just the country’s overall best-rated car brand, it is also the second most reliable carmaker.

The survey was conducted by HonestJohn.co.uk, which asked its readers to rate their cars across several metrics, such as efficiency, reliability, practicality, safety, comfort, and performance. Over 6,000 respondents participated in the recent survey.

UK’s Overall Best-Rated Car Brand

Based on the respondents of the Honest John Satisfaction Index survey, Tesla was the U.K.’s best-rated car brand for 2025 with a satisfaction index rating of 89.41%. In second place is Japanese premium carmaker Lexus, which garnered a satisfaction index rating of 86.32%. In third place is Porsche, which garnered a satisfaction index rating of 84.79%.

Tesla’s Reliability Surprise

While Tesla’s high customer satisfaction index scores in the survey were not that shocking, the company’s rankings in reliability are especially surprising. Tesla critics typically accuse Tesla of producing vehicles that are not reliable or are prone to imperfections like panel gaps. But as can be seen in the U.K. survey, Tesla’s reliability has actually improved a lot. 

Tesla’s reliability rating in the Honest John survey was an impressive 95.29%. That’s just below Lexus, which was the number one at 97.01%. Tesla was also above Toyota, which was in third place with a reliability rating of 94.65%.

What Honest John Says

In its rankings for the U.K.’s most reliable car brands, Honest John highlighted that while Tesla tended to be hit or miss with things like build quality in the past, the company has matured a lot in recent years. 

“While we were always impressed by the technology within Tesla’s range of exclusively electrically powered cars, build quality seemed to be a little hit and miss, to say the least. Evidently, matters have improved significantly in this regard according to our readers’ feedback as not only has the brand scored well for reliability across its four-strong range but the Tesla Model 3 was also rated as the most satisfying car to own overall,” the publication wrote. 

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Tesla Unveils Model Y RWD 110 customized for Singapore

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(Credit: Tesla Singapore)

Tesla unveiled the Model Y RWD 110 for Singapore’s Category A certificate of entitlement (COE) rules. This custom SUV tweaks the updated Model Y, which was launched in Singapore in January.

Tesla tuned the Model 3 RWD 110 for Singapore before, and that customized version’s success spurred this Model Y adaptation. The Model Y RWD 110 runs at 110kW, down from 255kW in the standard RWD. It qualifies for Singapore’s Category A COE, unlike the Model Y 255kW version, which sits in Category B.

Category A COEs are for mass-market cars. They score lower premiums than Category B COEs. BMW and Mercedes-Benz register vehicles as Category A COEs in Singapore as well.

In Singapore, buyers need to pay the COE to register a car. The latest tender showed an SGD 22,388 gap between Category A and B premiums.

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The Model Y RWD 110’s road tax is significantly reduced from SGD 3,478 to SGD 1,562 yearly. The Strait Times calculated that the cheaper Model Y in Singapore would save SGD 19,160 over a 10-year COE.

The Model Y RWD 110 matches the 255kW version otherwise. The more affordable Model Y’s battery size holds steady. Its energy use, equipment, and design stay the same.

Tesla prices the Model Y RWD 110 at SGD 103,476 before COE. The Model Y RWD 110 costs SGD 3,026 less than the 255kW version, excluding COE costs. It uses a 62.5kWh lithium iron phosphate battery.

Tesla has released cheaper versions of its cars before. For instance, it rolled out a more affordable Model 3 in Mexico last year. The cheaper Tesla Model 3 in Mexico did not use the same materials and had different features to reduce costs.

Tesla might consider releasing custom, cheaper versions of its vehicles in other countries. Industry sources in China hint at a “lower-priced Model Y” for the Chinese auto market, which keeps the Juniper’s battery and chassis

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Tesla US Gigafactories shields from Trump’s 25% Tariffs

Tesla US Gigafactories Shielded from Trump’s 25% Tariffs

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Tesla stocks climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, standing out in the United States auto industry.

Automaker stocks tanked after President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on foreign autos and parts. Tesla slightly dodged the tariff blow thanks to local production. Its gigafactories in China and Germany don’t supply Tesla vehicles to the United States market. The company builds all U.S.-sold EVs in Fremont, California, or at Giga Austin in Texas.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli sees the American EV automaker as a winner in Trump’s tariffs games.

“Tesla [is] a relative beneficiary given [its] 100% U.S. production footprint, substantial U.S. sourcing, and with Model Y competing in a midsize crossover segment where close to ~50% of vehicles could be subject to tariffs,” Michaeli wrote on Thursday.

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Rivian and Lucid also make all vehicles sold in the United States domestically. Ford hits 77% U.S. production, while Stellantis sits at 57%. Nissan and GM each clock in at 52%.

Trump’s 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles kicks in next week, on April 2, 2025. Elon Musk confirmed that Trump’s tariff will still affect Tesla, despite its plants in America.

Musk posted on X about tariff impacts. He said foreign-sourced parts will drive up costs. It’s not a small hit. Tesla warned of this in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative. “Certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States,” the letter stated, even with “aggressive localization.”

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