

News
U.S. Supreme Court to hear challenge on California emission rule waiver
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge from fuel companies against California’s ability to create its own emissions rules, in a case that could set a major precedent for how states handle making their own standards in efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions through electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
After the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted California an exemption from federal air pollution laws in 2022, effectively letting the state set its own vehicle emissions rules, the U.S. Supreme Court last week agreed to listen to a bid from a Valero Energy subsidiary and other fuel groups to challenge the exemption (via Reuters).
Valero’s Diamond Alternative Energy and other associated fuel business lobby groups argue that the waiver oversteps the power of the EPA under the Clean Air Act, under which the federal rules are set. The groups also argued that such a decision would lower demand for their liquid fuels, ultimately inflicting harm on their bottom line.
RELATED: U.S. Congressman urges President Biden to end EV transition goals
In the appeal, the groups also said that California was overstepping its power, acting as a “junior-varsity EPA” by making regulatory decisions to combat climate change and force the adoption of EVs upon consumers—choices the group says the state does not have the right to make.
The decision also comes after the EPA was backed by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in April, with the court throwing out a legal challenge against the waiver from a group of 17 Republican-run states. In that appeal, backers also argued that California’s ability to set its own emissions rules gave the state unconstitutional regulatory power, which they said isn’t available to other states.
The waiver has long been a point of contention, originally dating back to a 2013 decision to offer California the waiver. In 2019, the Trump administration rescinded that waiver, before the EPA was given power to reinstate it under the Biden administration in 2022.
California has also been a leader in pushing EV adoption through massive incentives, and an official ruling later in 2022 to ban the sale of new gas cars beginning in 2035. That ruling has since been followed by a handful of other states, including New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington.
Last year, California’s battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales also made up around one-third of all U.S. BEV sales, as led by Tesla.
Passed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the California ban also includes a gradual phase-out of gas vehicles set to begin in 2026, for which the state also required an EPA waiver. California has gained over 75 separate waivers since 1967, through which it has been able to lodge increasingly strict rules surrounding vehicle emissions performance and EV sales.
In February, the EPA actually loosened federal standards requiring automakers to sell a certain ratio of EVs by 2032. Previously, the agency required that automakers make 60 percent of sales come from BEVs and plugin hybrids by 2030, increasing that to 68 percent by 2032. Now, the agency mandates that manufacturers make 50 percent of their overall sales either plugin hybrids or BEVs by 2030.
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.
California’s proposed 2035 EV sales mandate faces scrutiny at EPA hearing


Investor's Corner
Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.”
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative
Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.
Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.
Still cautious on TSLA
Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.
Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
Investor's Corner
BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating
The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels.
The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.
Tesla’s valuation
In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.
The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla and its peers
BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.
The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.
News
Tesla FSD’s new Mad Max mode is getting rave reviews from users
It does appear that Mad Max mode is destined to be one of the system’s biggest steps forward to date.

Tesla’s release notes for the newly released Mad Max mode for FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 simply stated that the feature “comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.” But as per videos that have been posted online by FSD users who have tested the system, it does appear that Mad Max mode is destined to be one of the system’s biggest steps forward to date.
It is then no surprise that the new capability is getting rave reviews from Tesla owners.
Impressive tests
A look at posts on social media platform X would show that, similar to past FSD releases, numerous Tesla content creators immediately tested Mad Max mode on real-world streets after it was downloaded onto their vehicle. Considering that the update was released rather late, the first tests of Mad Max mode were done at night. Despite this, it was evident that Tesla worked very hard to make Mad Max mode into something that is very useful in real-world scenarios.
This could be seen in videos from longtime Tesla owner @BLKMDL3, who observed that Max Max mode was “amazing” and like “perfect for LA traffic” due to its cautious but assertive nature. Later on, the Tesla owner noted that after eight drives, it was evident that FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 was impressive.
Assertive but safe
Other testers such as Model Y owner Sawyer Merritt noted that Mad Max mode drives very quickly and confidently, with smoother acceleration that is still very safe. These were echoed by another longtime FSD tester, Dirty Tesla, who noted that Mad Max mode seems to be designed for heavy, aggressive traffic so users could fit in better. The FSD user did, however, observe that Mad Max mode does speed up a lot on open roads.
Recent comments from Tesla AI Head Ashok Elluswamy have indicated that Mad Max mode was created to be a solution for daytime congested traffic, which is arguably one of the most soul-crushing experiences that drivers deal with on a daily basis. With this in mind, it does appear that FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 could prove to be a notable step forward in Tesla’s push towards true autonomous driving.
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