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Tesla Model 3 Mania: 1 year and 400k reservations later
March 31, 2016, the day otherwise known as Model 3 Mania drew thousands of eager Tesla enthusiasts worldwide who lined up during predawn hours at their local Tesla showroom, in hopes to become one of the very first to reserve Tesla’s highly anticipated mass market sedan. Many went as far as to camp out overnight in front of the storefront to get an early jump on placing their $1,000 reservation deposit when stores opened the following day.
The day of Model 3 Mania also saw Elon Musk making a surprise visit to the Century City Tesla Store and giving high fives to the hundreds of eager Model 3 reservation holders that were waiting in line. What followed that evening was Tesla’s official Model 3 reveal event. Invited guests were given the opportunity to test ride in the Model 3, but also witness arguably the most significant product launch in automotive history.
High-five from Elon Musk himself at Century City for the #Model3. Now THAT's a CEO!! pic.twitter.com/cwE38kmxp8
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 31, 2016
Now, one year later and with a presumed reservation count well north of 400,000 vehicles, Model 3 is set to take stage again at Tesla’s final ‘Part 3’ launch event.
We’ve outlined some of the milestones Tesla has been able to achieve for Model 3 in the short year following the vehicle’s debut.
Release Candidate video – The most recent Model 3 teaser came in the form of a video that Elon shared via Twitter. No new details were revealed other than the fact that this was the closest near production-ready Model 3 we have seen thus far. In true Tesla form, the release candidate looks similar to the vehicle the company showcased on March 31st of last year. There doesn’t seem to be any major updates on the aesthetics of the car other than a slightly revised nose.
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Right Hand Drive Model 3 – Elon confirmed over Twitter that right-hand drive Model 3 won’t be arriving until the summer 2018.
Dual motor all-wheel drive option arriving later – Initial production run will be for the rear-wheel drive Model 3 with all-wheel drive models following 6 to 9 months after. It was communicated that this is to keep production as simple as possible from the outset.
Battery Size estimates – Model 3 battery will max out at 75kWh and have likely a 300+ mile range based on the current physical limitations of the chassis size.
Capital raise in preparation for Model 3 – Tesla kicked off another capital raise to rake in an additional $1.3 billion ahead of the start of Model 3 production. This was in addition to a $2 billion stock sale several months back.
Warehouse Expansion – Tesla signed a lease for 1.3 million square feet of warehouse space northeast of the Fremont factory. We expect that this warehouse will be used to store battery pack inventory moving from Gigafactory 1 in Spark, Nevada to the Fremont factory.
Gigafactory starts Model 3 battery cell production – Gigafactory 1 will begin production of Model 3’s high performance ‘2170 cell’ in Q2. Tesla is currently mass producing 2170 lithium ion cells for the company’s commercial and home battery storage systems.
Heads Up Display – Model 3’s gauge-less cluster has led many to believe that Tesla had plans for a HUD. However, that was quickly put to rest after Elon confirmed over Twitter that Model 3 will not have heads up display.
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Supercharging congestion a concern in advance of Model 3 – Model 3 will add a significant number of Tesla vehicles to roads around the world, leaving many to wonder about the type of impact this will have on the Supercharger network. Mainly, how long do I need to wait before I can charge?
Tesla addressed these fears by implementing a new annual cap on Supercharging for all owners that purchased a Model S or Model X this year.
Model 3 Ludicrous Mode – For the performance junky out there, Ludicrous mode will indeed be available for Model 3, though Elon did note that it’s not going to be as fast as Model S.
All eyes are on the start of production for Model 3 that’s scheduled to take place in July. Employees will have the ultimate first shot at taking delivery of a new Model 3.
Happy 1 yr old birthday Model 3 Mania.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.
Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”
Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.
🚨 Tesla is recalling 20,349 2020-23 Model Y vehicles and 2017-23 Model 3 vehicles due to an excessively bright headlamp low beam.
Currently, there is no remedy plan in place, as it is still being developed. pic.twitter.com/y34cIO2U0B
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 11, 2026
Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.
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However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.
Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.
Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
